非洲猪瘟在野猪中的扩散规律
The Diffusion Metrics of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar
摘要：
为了有效控制非洲猪瘟（ASF），需要易于解释的疫情动态指标来规划和调整所需的措施。我们发现，非洲猪瘟病例在野猪中的传播模式遵循扩散过程的机制，至少在早期阶段，对于发生在德国的病例。在侵入以前未受影响的地区后，感染在一个幼稚和丰富的野猪种群中局部传播。使用德国的真实病例数据，我们得到了连续病例报告之间的时间差和距离的统计数据。使用这些统计数据，我们产生了一个合奏的随机游走（连续时间随机游走，CTRW），类似于所观察到的爆发模式的属性作为一个可能的实现所有可能的疾病传播模式。训练后的随机游走器集合产生了野猪早期ASF传播的扩散常数，受影响的区域和爆发速度。这些数量易于解释，稳健，并且可以推广或适用于不同地区。因此，扩散指标可以是早期疾病动态的有用描述符，有助于促进非洲猪瘟的有效控制。
英文摘要：
To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretable metrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the required measures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wild boar follows the mechanics of a diffusion process, at least in the early phase, for the cases that occurred in Germany. Following incursion into a previously unaffected area, infection disseminates locally within a naive and abundant wild boar population. Using real case data for Germany, we derive statistics about the time differences and distances between consecutive case reports. With the use of these statistics, we generate an ensemble of random walkers (continuous time random walks, CTRW) that resemble the properties of the observed outbreak pattern as one possible realization of all possible disease dissemination patterns. The trained random walker ensemble yields the diffusion constant, the affected area, and the outbreak velocity of early ASF spread in wild boar. These quantities are easy to interpret, robust, and may be generalized or adapted to different regions. Therefore, diffusion metrics can be useful descriptors of early disease dynamics and help facilitate efficient control of African Swine Fever.
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