非洲猪瘟病毒猪群运动网络的构建及有效缓解策略分析
Generation of swine movement network and analysis of efficient mitigation strategies for African swine fever virus
摘要：
动物运动网络对于了解和遏制传染病在农业中的传播至关重要。由于其保密性质，美国养猪场种群的移动数据并不容易获得。因此，我们提出了一种方法来生成这样的网络从有限的数据在公共领域。作为一个潜在的破坏性候选者，我们模拟了非洲猪瘟病毒（ASFV）在我们生成的网络中的传播，并分析了网络结构如何影响疾病的传播。我们发现，高程度的农场经营（即，市场）在疾病传播中发挥关键作用。我们还发现，与其他基于中心的缓解策略相比，基于高度的针对性隔离和假设的疫苗接种对疾病控制更有效。只要有更多的运动数据可用，就可以通过使用更多的数据进行验证来使生成的网络更加鲁棒。
英文摘要：
Animal movement networks are essential in understanding and containing the spread of infectious diseases in farming industries. Due to its confidential nature, movement data for the US swine farming population is not readily available. Hence, we propose a method to generate such networks from limited data available in the public domain. As a potentially devastating candidate, we simulate the spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in our generated network and analyze how the network structure affects the disease spread. We find that high in-degree farm operations (i.e., markets) play critical roles in the disease spread. We also find that high in-degree based targeted isolation and hypothetical vaccinations are more effective for disease control compared to other centrality-based mitigation strategies. The generated networks can be made more robust by validation with more data whenever more movement data will be available.
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