非洲猪瘟机制模型的系统评价
Mechanistic modeling of African swine fever: A systematic review
摘要：
非洲猪瘟（ASF）的蔓延对全球养猪业构成严重威胁。了解传动系统的动态特性，例如通过机械建模，对于设计有效的控制策略至关重要。对多个流行病学和模型特征的文献进行了检查。通过使用系统发育软件创建邻接树来确定模型亲缘关系。在符合纳入条件的34篇文章中，确定了四个主要建模目标：估计传播参数（11项研究），评估传播的决定因素（7），检查假设爆发的后果（5），评估替代控制策略（11）。估计的传输参数变化很大，模型之间的参数假设。通常考虑对流行病学和生态学参数的不确定性，以评估对模型感染轨迹的影响。几乎所有的模型都是宿主特异性的，正在为家猪或野猪〈动〉<动>开发，尽管事实证明家猪和野猪〈动〉<动>之间的溢出事件在ASF爆发中起重要作用。开发包含此类传播途径的模型至关重要。所有比较的控制策略都是先验定义的，未来的模型应该建立在许多控制方法中确定最佳贡献。此外，对照如何协同执行控制战略，对竞争中的控制战略进行了审查。虽然比较策略有利于识别控制方法的等级顺序功效，但这种结构并不一定决定所有可用策略的最有效组合。为了使ASFV模型能够有效地支持全球控制ASFV的决策，需要解决这些建模限制。
英文摘要：
The spread of African swine fever (ASF) poses a grave threat to the global swine industry. Understanding transmission dynamics, such as through mechanistic modeling, is critical for designing effective control strategies. Articles were examined across multiple epidemiological and model characteristics. Model filiation was determined through creation of a neighbor-joined tree using phylogenetic software. Of 34 four articles qualifying for inclusion, four main modelling objectives were identified: estimating transmission parameters (11 studies), assessing determinants of transmission (7), examining consequences of hypothetical outbreaks (5), and assessing alternative control strategies (11). Estimated transmission parameters varied widely as did parameter assumptions between models. Uncertainties on epidemiological and ecological parameters were usually accounted for to assess the impact on the modeled infection trajectory. Almost all models are host specific, being developed for either domestic pigs or wild boar despite the fact that spillover events between domestic pigs and wild boar are evidenced to play an important role in ASF outbreaks. The development of models incorporating such transmission routes is crucial. All compared control strategies were defined a priori, and future models should be built to identify optimal contributions across many control methods. Further, control strategies were examined in competition, opposed to how they would be synergistically implemented. While comparing strategies is beneficial for identifying a rank-order efficacy of control methods, this structure does not necessarily determine the most effective combination of all available strategies. In order for ASFV models to effectively support decision-making in controlling ASFV globally, these modelling limitations need to be addressed.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
