劳动力市场条件与大学毕业：来自巴西的证据
Labor market conditions and college graduation: evidence from Brazil
摘要：
在经济衰退中毕业的大学生在收入、健康和其他方面都面临着巨大而持久的负面影响。本文调查了学生是否推迟毕业以避免这些影响。利用巴西高等教育学生的数据，并利用劳动力市场条件在时间、空间和所选专业上的变化，本文发现，公立学校的学生推迟毕业，以避免进入萧条的劳动力市场。一场典型的经济衰退导致公立大学的按时毕业率下降6.5%，而私立大学则没有受到影响。由此导致的延迟使平均毕业时间增加了0.11个学期，这与公立大学每18名学生中就有一名学生延迟毕业一年的情况一致。对于分数较高、收入较高专业和背景较优越的学生来说，延迟效应更大。这对衰退的分配影响具有重要意义。
英文摘要：
College students graduating in a recession have been shown to face large and persistent negative effects on their earnings, health, and other outcomes. This paper investigates whether students delay graduation to avoid these effects. Using data on the universe of students in higher education in Brazil and leveraging variation in labor market conditions across time, space, and chosen majors, the paper finds that students in public institutions delay graduation to avoid entering depressed labor markets. A typical recession causes the on-time graduation rate to fall by 6.5% in public universities and there is no effect on private institutions. The induced delaying increases average graduation by 0.11 semesters, consistent with 1 out of 18 students delaying graduation by one year in public universities. The delaying effect is larger for students with higher scores, in higher-earnings majors, and from more advantaged backgrounds. This has important implications for the distributional impact of recessions.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
