认知耐力、人才选择与劳动力市场对人力资本的回报
Cognitive Endurance, Talent Selection, and the Labor Market Returns to Human Capital
摘要：
认知耐力（cognitive endurance）--在一项认知要求很高的任务上持续表现的能力--被认为是决定生产力的关键因素。然而，由于缺乏关于这一变量的数据，研究人员无法理解它在大学和劳动力市场中的作用。这篇论文使用了1500万巴西高中生的大学入学考试记录，根据整个考试过程中的表现变化来衡量认知耐力。我的研究表明，学生在一天开始时正确回答一个给定问题的可能性比在一天结束时高7.1个百分点（相对于34.3%的样本平均值）。我开发了一种方法，将测试分数分解为疲劳调整能力和认知耐力。然后，我将这些措施合并到高等教育普查和巴西正式部门工人的收入记录中，以量化耐力和长期结果之间的关联。我发现认知耐力在统计学和经济学上都有显著的工资回报。控制疲劳调整能力和其他学生特征，一个标准差的耐力更高预测工资增长5.4%。耐力的工资回报相当可观，相当于能力工资回报的三分之一。我还记录了耐力与大学出勤率、大学质量、大学毕业、公司质量和其他结果之间的正相关。最后，我展示了学生之间耐力的系统差异如何与考试设计相互作用，以确定学生进入大学的排序。我讨论了这些研究结果的影响，使用认知评估的人才选择和投资的干预措施，建立认知耐力。
英文摘要：
Cognitive endurance -- the ability to sustain performance on a cognitively-demanding task over time -- is thought to be a crucial productivity determinant. However, a lack of data on this variable has limited researchers' ability to understand its role for success in college and the labor market. This paper uses college-admission-exam records from 15 million Brazilian high school students to measure cognitive endurance based on changes in performance throughout the exam. By exploiting exogenous variation in the order of exam questions, I show that students are 7.1 percentage points more likely to correctly answer a given question when it appears at the beginning of the day versus the end (relative to a sample mean of 34.3%). I develop a method to decompose test scores into fatigue-adjusted ability and cognitive endurance. I then merge these measures into a higher-education census and the earnings records of the universe of Brazilian formal-sector workers to quantify the association between endurance and long-run outcomes. I find that cognitive endurance has a statistically and economically significant wage return. Controlling for fatigue-adjusted ability and other student characteristics, a one-standard-deviation higher endurance predicts a 5.4% wage increase. This wage return to endurance is sizable, equivalent to a third of the wage return to ability. I also document positive associations between endurance and college attendance, college quality, college graduation, firm quality, and other outcomes. Finally, I show how systematic differences in endurance across students interact with the exam design to determine the sorting of students to colleges. I discuss the implications of these findings for the use of cognitive assessments for talent selection and investments in interventions that build cognitive endurance.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
