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arXiv 2201.08744cs.CYcs.LG
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学生学业成绩轨迹对学业成功的影响

Impacts of Students Academic Performance Trajectories on Final Academic Success

University of Central Florida(中佛罗里达大学)

Shahab Boumi, Adan Vela

摘要:

教育分析领域的许多研究已经将学生平均成绩(GPA)确定为学生最终学术成果(毕业或停学)的重要指标和预测因素。虽然GPA的学期间波动被认为是正常的,但学习成绩的显著变化可能需要更彻底的调查和考虑,特别是关于最终的学术成果。然而,这样的方法是具有挑战性的,因为在学术生涯中代表复杂的学术轨迹的困难。在这项研究中,我们应用隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)提供一个标准和直观的分类学生的学业成绩水平,这导致学业成绩轨迹的紧凑表示。接下来,我们将探讨不同的学业表现轨迹之间的关系,以及它们与最终学业成功的对应关系。基于中佛罗里达大学的学生成绩单数据,我们提出的HMM是使用学生每学期的课程成绩序列进行训练的。通过HMM,我们的分析遵循了预期的发现,即较高的学习成绩水平与较低的停顿率相关。然而,在本文中,我们发现存在许多情况下,改善或恶化的学业表现轨迹实际上与更高的毕业率相关。通过提出和开发的HMM模型,这一反直觉的发现成为可能。

英文摘要:

Many studies in the field of education analytics have identified student grade point averages (GPA) as an important indicator and predictor of students' final academic outcomes (graduate or halt). And while semester-to-semester fluctuations in GPA are considered normal, significant changes in academic performance may warrant more thorough investigation and consideration, particularly with regards to final academic outcomes. However, such an approach is challenging due to the difficulties of representing complex academic trajectories over an academic career. In this study, we apply a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to provide a standard and intuitive classification over students' academic-performance levels, which leads to a compact representation of academic-performance trajectories. Next, we explore the relationship between different academic-performance trajectories and their correspondence to final academic success. Based on student transcript data from University of Central Florida, our proposed HMM is trained using sequences of students' course grades for each semester. Through the HMM, our analysis follows the expected finding that higher academic performance levels correlate with lower halt rates. However, in this paper, we identify that there exist many scenarios in which both improving or worsening academic-performance trajectories actually correlate to higher graduation rates. This counter-intuitive finding is made possible through the proposed and developed HMM model.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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