We present our submission to the Extreme Value Analysis 2021 Data Challenge in which teams were asked to accurately predict distributions of wildfire frequency and size within spatio-temporal regions of missing data. For the purpose of this competition we developed a variant of the powerful variational autoencoder models dubbed the Conditional Missing data Importance-Weighted Autoencoder (CMIWAE). Our deep latent variable generative model requires little to no feature engineering and does not necessarily rely on the specifics of scoring in the Data Challenge. It is fully trained on incomplete data, with the single objective to maximize log-likelihood of the observed wildfire information. We mitigate the effects of the relatively low number of training samples by stochastic sampling from a variational latent variable distribution, as well as by ensembling a set of CMIWAE models trained and validated on different splits of the provided data. The presented approach is not domain-specific and is amenable to application in other missing data recovery tasks with tabular or image-like information conditioned on auxiliary information.
Over the past decade, the number of wildfire has increased significantly around the world, especially in the State of California. The high-level concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) emitted by wildfires aggravates global warming that further increases the risk of more fires. Therefore, an accurate prediction of wildfire occurrence greatly helps in preventing large-scale and long-lasting wildfires and reducing the consequent GHG emissions. Various methods have been explored for wildfire risk prediction. However, the complex correlations among a lot of natural and human factors and wildfire ign…
Generative Algorithms for Fusion of Physics-Based Wildfire Spread Models with Satellite Data for Initializing Wildfire Forecasts
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；University of Maryland（马里兰大学）；San Jose State University（圣何塞州立大学）；University of Colorado Denver（科罗拉多大学丹佛分校）；Colorado State University（科罗拉多州立大学）；University of Utah（犹他大学）
Generative Algorithms for Wildfire Progression Reconstruction from Multi-Modal Satellite Active Fire Measurements and Terrain Height
Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University of Southern California（航空航天与机械工程系，美国南加州大学）；Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California（数学系，美国南加州大学）；Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University（大气研究联合机构，科罗拉多州立大学）；Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose State University（气象与气候科学系，圣何塞州立大学）；Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah（大气科学系，犹他大学）；Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Colorado Denver（数学与统计科学系，科罗拉多大学丹佛分校）
Fire-EnSF: Wildfire Spread Data Assimilation using Ensemble Score Filter
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering（H. Milton Stewart工业与系统工程学院）；School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences（地球与大气科学学院）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
A Probabilistic Approach to Wildfire Spread Prediction Using a Denoising Diffusion Surrogate Model
CEREA, ENPC, EDF R&D, Institut Polytechnique de Paris（CEREA、ENPC、EDF R&D、巴黎理工学院）；Department of Earth Science & Engineering, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院伦敦地球科学与工程系）；Department of Computing, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院伦敦计算机科学系）；Data Science Institute, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院伦敦数据科学研究院）
University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been shown to provide an effective way to model complex distributions and have obtained impressive results on various challenging tasks. However, typical GANs require fully-observed data during training. In this paper, we present a GAN-based framework for learning from complex, high-dimensional incomplete data. The proposed framework learns a complete data generator along with a mask generator that models the missing data distribution. We further demonstrate how to impute missing data by equipping our framework with an adversarially trained imputer. …
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have shown great success in applications such as image generation and inpainting. However, they typically require large datasets, which are often not available, especially in the context of prediction tasks such as image segmentation that require labels. Therefore, methods such as the CycleGAN use more easily available unlabelled data, but do not offer a way to leverage additional labelled data for improved performance. To address this shortcoming, we show how to factorise the joint data distribution into a set of lower-dimensional distributions along wit…
UniGIO: Unified Generative Global In-situ Weather Modeling from Spatiotemporal Incomplete Observations
Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
University of Applied Sciences and Arts Western Switzerland (HES-SO)（瑞士西部应用科学与艺术大学（HES-SO））
Integrating physics models within machine learning models holds considerable promise toward learning robust models with improved interpretability and abilities to extrapolate. In this work, we focus on the integration of incomplete physics models into deep generative models. In particular, we introduce an architecture of variational autoencoders (VAEs) in which a part of the latent space is grounded by physics. A key technical challenge is to strike a balance between the incomplete physics and trainable components such as neural networks for ensuring that the physics part is used in a meaningf…
We reinterpreting the variational inference in a new perspective. Via this way, we can easily prove that EM algorithm, VAE, GAN, AAE, ALI(BiGAN) are all special cases of variational inference. The proof also reveals the loss of standard GAN is incomplete and it explains why we need to train GAN cautiously. From that, we find out a regularization term to improve stability of GAN training.
Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；University Carlos III in Madrid（马德里卡洛斯三世大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Uber AI Labs（优步人工智能实验室）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Variational autoencoders (VAEs), as well as other generative models, have been shown to be efficient and accurate for capturing the latent structure of vast amounts of complex high-dimensional data. However, existing VAEs can still not directly handle data that are heterogenous (mixed continuous and discrete) or incomplete (with missing data at random), which is indeed common in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a general framework to design VAEs suitable for fitting incomplete heterogenous data. The proposed HI-VAE includes likelihood models for real-valued, positive real val…
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；Alibaba Inc.（阿里巴巴集团）
Noise injection has been proved to be one of the key technique advances in generating high-fidelity images. Despite its successful usage in GANs, the mechanism of its validity is still unclear. In this paper, we propose a geometric framework to theoretically analyze the role of noise injection in GANs. Based on Riemannian geometry, we successfully model the noise injection framework as fuzzy equivalence on the geodesic normal coordinates. Guided by our theories, we find that the existing method is incomplete and a new strategy for noise injection is devised. Experiments on image generation and…
Rochester Data Science Consortium（罗切斯特数据科学联盟）；University of Rochester（罗切斯特大学）
Deep generative frameworks including GANs and normalizing flow models have proven successful at filling in missing values in partially observed data samples by effectively learning -- either explicitly or implicitly -- complex, high-dimensional statistical distributions. In tasks where the data available for learning is only partially observed, however, their performance decays monotonically as a function of the data missingness rate. In high missing data rate regimes (e.g., 60% and above), it has been observed that state-of-the-art models tend to break down and produce unrealistic and/or sema…
Caltech（加州理工学院）；UCSF（加州大学旧金山分校）；U of Washington（华盛顿大学）
Neuroscientists and neuroengineers have long relied on multielectrode neural recordings to study the brain. However, in a typical experiment, many factors corrupt neural recordings from individual electrodes, including electrical noise, movement artifacts, and faulty manufacturing. Currently, common practice is to discard these corrupted recordings, reducing already limited data that is difficult to collect. To address this challenge, we propose Deep Neural Imputation (DNI), a framework to recover missing values from electrodes by learning from data collected across spatial locations, days, an…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence（向量人工智能研究院）；Borealis AI（博瑞利斯人工智能研究所）
The field of deep generative modeling has succeeded in producing astonishingly realistic-seeming images and audio, but quantitative evaluation remains a challenge. Log-likelihood is an appealing metric due to its grounding in statistics and information theory, but it can be challenging to estimate for implicit generative models, and scalar-valued metrics give an incomplete picture of a model's quality. In this work, we propose to use rate distortion (RD) curves to evaluate and compare deep generative models. While estimating RD curves is seemingly even more computationally demanding than log-l…
Multiple modalities often co-occur when describing natural phenomena. Learning a joint representation of these modalities should yield deeper and more useful representations. Previous generative approaches to multi-modal input either do not learn a joint distribution or require additional computation to handle missing data. Here, we introduce a multimodal variational autoencoder (MVAE) that uses a product-of-experts inference network and a sub-sampled training paradigm to solve the multi-modal inference problem. Notably, our model shares parameters to efficiently learn under any combination of…
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学计算机科学与工程系）；Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学电气与系统工程系）；Department of Bioengineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校生物工程系）
Medical image reconstruction is typically an ill-posed inverse problem. In order to address such ill-posed problems, the prior distribution of the sought after object property is usually incorporated by means of some sparsity-promoting regularization. Recently, prior distributions for images estimated using generative adversarial networks (GANs) have shown great promise in regularizing some of these image reconstruction problems. In this work, we apply an image-adaptive GAN-based reconstruction method (IAGAN) to reconstruct high fidelity images from incomplete medical imaging data. It is obser…
Generative neural network models, including Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) and Auto-Encoders (AE), are among the most popular neural network models to generate adversarial data. The GAN model is composed of a generator that produces synthetic data and of a discriminator that discriminates between the generator's output and the true data. AE consist of an encoder which maps the model distribution to a latent manifold and of a decoder which maps the latent manifold to a reconstructed distribution. However, generative models are known to provoke chaotically scattered reconstructed distribut…
Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly desig…
Université Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学）；Amazon（亚马逊）；AWS AI Labs（AWS人工智能实验室）
In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learne…
Polytechnique Montreal（蒙特利尔理工学院）；University de Montreal（蒙特利尔大学）；Institut national de la recherche scientifique（国家科学研究院）
In recent years, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have shown substantial progress in modeling complex distributions of data. These networks have received tremendous attention since they can generate implicit probabilistic models that produce realistic data using a stochastic procedure. While such models have proven highly effective in diverse scenarios, they require a large set of fully-observed training samples. In many applications access to such samples are difficult or even impractical and only noisy or partial observations of the desired distribution is available. Recent research ha…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Information Sciences Institute（信息科学研究所）
The ability to accurately predict cyber-attacks would enable organizations to mitigate their growing threat and avert the financial losses and disruptions they cause. But how predictable are cyber-attacks? Researchers have attempted to combine external data -- ranging from vulnerability disclosures to discussions on Twitter and the darkweb -- with machine learning algorithms to learn indicators of impending cyber-attacks. However, successful cyber-attacks represent a tiny fraction of all attempted attacks: the vast majority are stopped, or filtered by the security appliances deployed at the ta…
Score-based generative models are shown to achieve remarkable empirical performances in various applications such as image generation and audio synthesis. However, a theoretical understanding of score-based diffusion models is still incomplete. Recently, Song et al. showed that the training objective of score-based generative models is equivalent to minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the generated distribution from the data distribution. In this work, we show that score-based models also minimize the Wasserstein distance between them under suitable assumptions on the model. Specific…
A Generative Imputation Method for Multimodal Alzheimer's Disease Diagnosis
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA（电气与计算机工程学院，佐治亚理工学院，亚特兰大，GA，USA）；Courtesy Faculty Appointment, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA（佛罗里达大学药学院荣誉教职）
Revisit and Outstrip Entity Alignment: A Perspective of Generative Models
College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University（浙江大学计算机科学与技术学院）；Zhejiang University - Ant Group Joint Laboratory of Knowledge Graph（浙江大学-蚂蚁集团知识图谱联合实验室）；Donghai Laboratory（东海实验室）；Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学计算机科学系）；School of Software Technology, Zhejiang University（浙江大学软件学院）
Interpretable Generative and Discriminative Learning for Multimodal and Incomplete Clinical Data
Department of Health Sciences and Technology (DHEST), ETH Zurich（健康科学与技术系，苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（信号理论与通信系，卡洛斯三世大学）；UCL Hawkes Institute, Department of Computer Science, University College London（UCL Hawkes研究所，伦敦大学学院计算机科学系）；Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón (IiSGM), Madrid（Gregorio Marañón卫生研究所（IiSGM），马德里）
Yantai University（烟台大学）；East China Normal University（华东师范大学）
Datasets with missing values are very common in real world applications. GAIN, a recently proposed deep generative model for missing data imputation, has been proved to outperform many state-of-the-art methods. But GAIN only uses a reconstruction loss in the generator to minimize the imputation error of the non-missing part, ignoring the potential category information which can reflect the relationship between samples. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised missing data imputation method named PC-GAIN, which utilizes potential category information to further enhance the imputation powe…
We consider the problem of handling missing data with deep latent variable models (DLVMs). First, we present a simple technique to train DLVMs when the training set contains missing-at-random data. Our approach, called MIWAE, is based on the importance-weighted autoencoder (IWAE), and maximises a potentially tight lower bound of the log-likelihood of the observed data. Compared to the original IWAE, our algorithm does not induce any additional computational overhead due to the missing data. We also develop Monte Carlo techniques for single and multiple imputation using a DLVM trained on an inc…
Learning a generative model from partial data (data with missingness) is a challenging area of machine learning research. We study a specific implementation of the Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB) algorithm, named in this paper as a Variational Auto-Decoder (VAD). VAD is a generic framework which uses Variational Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to learn a generative model from partial data. The main distinction between VAD and Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) is the encoder component, as VAD does not have one. Using a proposed efficient inference method from a multivariat…
University of California Los Angeles (UCLA)（加州大学洛杉矶分校）
In many machine learning applications, we are faced with incomplete datasets. In the literature, missing data imputation techniques have been mostly concerned with filling missing values. However, the existence of missing values is synonymous with uncertainties not only over the distribution of missing values but also over target class assignments that require careful consideration. In this paper, we propose a simple and effective method for imputing missing features and estimating the distribution of target assignments given incomplete data. In order to make imputations, we train a simple and…
Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics（伯克利宇宙物理中心）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex, data-driven priors that comprise all available information about the uncorrupted data distribution. 2) It enables computationally tractable uncertainty quantification in the form of posterior analysis in latent and data space. The method is very efficient in that the generative model only has to be trained once on an uncorrupted data set, after that, the pr…
Deep Generative Imputation Model for Missing Not At Random Data
Institute for Clarity in Documentation（清晰文档研究所）；Inria Paris-Rocquencourt（巴黎-罗克琴堡国家信息与自动化研究所）；Rajiv Gandhi University（拉吉夫·甘地大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Palmer Research Laboratories（帕勒尔研究实验室）；MIC Lab（微电子实验室）；Department of Computer Science and Technology（计算机科学与技术系）；Jilin University（吉林大学）
Measuring divergence between two distributions is essential in machine learning and statistics and has various applications including binary classification, change point detection, and two-sample test. Furthermore, in the era of big data, designing divergence measure that is interpretable and can handle high-dimensional and complex data becomes extremely important. In the paper, we propose a post selection inference (PSI) framework for divergence measure, which can select a set of statistically significant features that discriminate two distributions. Specifically, we employ an additive varian…
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
Imitation learning targets deriving a mapping from states to actions, a.k.a. policy, from expert demonstrations. Existing methods for imitation learning typically require any actions in the demonstrations to be fully available, which is hard to ensure in real applications. Though algorithms for learning with unobservable actions have been proposed, they focus solely on state information and overlook the fact that the action sequence could still be partially available and provide useful information for policy deriving. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm called Action-Guided Adversarial…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Petuum Inc（Petuum公司）
A primary goal of computational phenotype research is to conduct medical diagnosis. In hospital, physicians rely on massive clinical data to make diagnosis decisions, among which laboratory tests are one of the most important resources. However, the longitudinal and incomplete nature of laboratory test data casts a significant challenge on its interpretation and usage, which may result in harmful decisions by both human physicians and automatic diagnosis systems. In this work, we take advantage of deep generative models to deal with the complex laboratory tests. Specifically, we propose an end…
