The ability to accurately predict cyber-attacks would enable organizations to mitigate their growing threat and avert the financial losses and disruptions they cause. But how predictable are cyber-attacks? Researchers have attempted to combine external data -- ranging from vulnerability disclosures to discussions on Twitter and the darkweb -- with machine learning algorithms to learn indicators of impending cyber-attacks. However, successful cyber-attacks represent a tiny fraction of all attempted attacks: the vast majority are stopped, or filtered by the security appliances deployed at the target. As we show in this paper, the process of filtering reduces the predictability of cyber-attacks. The small number of attacks that do penetrate the target's defenses follow a different generative process compared to the whole data which is much harder to learn for predictive models. This could be caused by the fact that the resulting time series also depends on the filtering process in addition to all the different factors that the original time series depended on. We empirically quantify the loss of predictability due to filtering using real-world data from two organizations. Our work identifies the limits to forecasting cyber-attacks from highly filtered data.
We consider the task of forecasting an infinite sequence of future observations based on some number of past observations, where the probability measure generating the observations is "suspected" to satisfy one or more of a set of incomplete models, i.e. convex sets in the space of probability measures. This setting is in some sense intermediate between the realizable setting where the probability measure comes from some known set of probability measures (which can be addressed using e.g. Bayesian inference) and the unrealizable setting where the probability measure is completely arbitrary. We…
Universidad Nacional de Colombia（哥伦比亚国立大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）
Accurate mechanisms for forecasting solar irradiance and insolation provide important information for the planning of renewable energy and agriculture projects as well as for environmental and socio-economical studies. This research introduces a pipeline for the one-day ahead forecasting of solar irradiance and insolation that only requires solar irradiance historical data for training. Furthermore, our approach is able to deal with missing data since it includes a data imputation state. In the prediction stage, we consider four data-driven approaches: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average …
Marginalize, Rather than Impute: Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Incomplete Data
School of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学电气工程学院）；Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院设计工程学院）；Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学技术、管理与经济系）；Centre for Energy Research – CoRE, Aarhus University（奥胡斯大学能源研究中心）
Seasonal influenza infects between 10 and 50 million people in the United States every year, overburdening hospitals during weeks of peak incidence. Named by the CDC as an important tool to fight the damaging effects of these epidemics, accurate forecasts of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) forewarn public health officials about when, and where, seasonal influenza outbreaks will hit hardest. Multi-model ensemble forecasts---weighted combinations of component models---have shown positive results in forecasting. Ensemble forecasts of influenza outbreaks have been static, training on al…
Probabilistic Forecasting for Dynamical Systems with Missing or Imperfect Data
Institute of Applied Mathematics（应用数学研究所）；University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Recherche en prévision numérique atmosphérique（大气数值预报研究中心）；Environnement et Changement climatique Canada（加拿大环境与气候变化部）
HESAM Université（巴黎高科艺术与职业大学）；Conservatoire national des arts et métiers（法国国立工艺学院）；Simon Fraser University（西蒙弗雷泽大学）；Borealis AI（Borealis人工智能研究院）；Valeo AI（法雷奥人工智能研究院）；Sorbonne Université（索邦大学）；Criteo AI（科韬人工智能研究院）；Mines ParisTech（巴黎高等矿业学院）；EDF R&D（法国电力研发中心）；Université Rennes 1（雷恩第一大学）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）
This thesis tackles the subject of spatio-temporal forecasting with deep learning. The motivating application at Electricity de France (EDF) is short-term solar energy forecasting with fisheye images. We explore two main research directions for improving deep forecasting methods by injecting external physical knowledge. The first direction concerns the role of the training loss function. We show that differentiable shape and temporal criteria can be leveraged to improve the performances of existing models. We address both the deterministic context with the proposed DILATE loss function and the…
Protecting Federated Learning from Extreme Model Poisoning Attacks via Multidimensional Time Series Anomaly Detection
Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome（计算机、控制与管理工程系，罗马萨皮恩扎大学）；National Research Council in Pisa（比萨国家研究理事会）；Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich（统计学系，慕尼黑路德维希-马克西米利安大学）；Department of Computer Science, Sapienza University of Rome（计算机科学系，罗马萨皮恩扎大学）
Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly desig…
PA-RNet: Perturbation-Aware Residual Network for Robust Multimodal Time Series Forecasting
Institute of Computing Technology, Guangzhou University（广州大学计算机技术学院）；School of Computer Science and Technology, Dalian University of Technology（大连理工大学计算机科学与技术学院）
A Market-Rule-Informed Neural Network for Efficient Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting
Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；Austrian Institute of Technology（奥地利技术研究院）；London Business School（伦敦商学院）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼大学）；The Chinese University of Hongkong (Shenzhen)（香港中文大学（深圳））
Ant Group（蚂蚁集团）；AI School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学人工智能学院）；Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）
Multivariate time-series forecasting is a critical task for many applications, and graph time-series network is widely studied due to its capability to capture the spatial-temporal correlation simultaneously. However, most existing works focus more on learning with the explicit prior graph structure, while ignoring potential information from the implicit graph structure, yielding incomplete structure modeling. Some recent works attempt to learn the intrinsic or implicit graph structure directly while lacking a way to combine explicit prior structure with implicit structure together. In this pa…
Time series prediction has been a long-standing research topic and an essential application in many domains. Modern time series collected from sensor networks (e.g., energy consumption and traffic flow) are often large-scale and incomplete with considerable corruption and missing values, making it difficult to perform accurate predictions. In this paper, we propose a low-rank autoregressive tensor completion (LATC) framework to model multivariate time series data. The key of LATC is to transform the original multivariate time series matrix (e.g., sensor$\times$time point) to a third-order tens…
UniGIO: Unified Generative Global In-situ Weather Modeling from Spatiotemporal Incomplete Observations
Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
Sorbonne Université（索邦大学）；Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers（法国国立工艺学院）；EDF R&D（法国电力集团研发中心）；Thales（泰雷兹集团）；Criteo AI Lab（科韬人工智能实验室）
Forecasting complex dynamical phenomena in settings where only partial knowledge of their dynamics is available is a prevalent problem across various scientific fields. While purely data-driven approaches are arguably insufficient in this context, standard physical modeling based approaches tend to be over-simplistic, inducing non-negligible errors. In this work, we introduce the APHYNITY framework, a principled approach for augmenting incomplete physical dynamics described by differential equations with deep data-driven models. It consists in decomposing the dynamics into two components: a ph…
Machine-learning-based anomaly detection (ML-based AD) has been successful at detecting DDoS events in the lab. However published evaluations of ML-based AD have used only limited data and provided minimal insight into why it works. To address limited evaluation against real-world data, we apply autoencoder, an existing ML-AD model, to 57 DDoS attack events captured at 5 cloud IPs from a major cloud provider. We show that our models detect nearly all malicious flows for 2 of the 4 cloud IPs under attack (at least 99.99%) and detect most malicious flows (94.75% and 91.37%) for the remaining 2 I…
GTS_Forecaster: a novel deep learning based geodetic time series forecasting toolbox with python
School of Transportation Engineering, East China Jiao Tong University（东华交通大学交通运输工程学院）；Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Ecological Conservation in Headwater Regions（江西省头水地区水生态保育重点实验室）；Division of Geodetic Science, School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University（地球科学学院地质科学系，俄亥俄州立大学）；Institute Dom Luiz, University of Beira Interior（贝拉内里亚大学多姆路易斯研究所）；Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz University Hannover（汉诺威莱比锡大学气象与气候研究所）；Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University（江西省鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究重点实验室，江西省教育厅，江西师范大学）
LSTM-Based Forecasting and Analysis of EV Charging Demand in a Dense Urban Campus
Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department, California State University-Sacramento（电气与电子工程系，加州州立大学萨克拉门托分校）；Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department, University of California, Riverside（电气与电子工程系，加州大学河滨分校）；Computer Science Department, California State University, Northridge（计算机科学系，加州州立大学北岭分校）；Computer Engineering Department, California State University, Northridge（计算机工程系，加州州立大学北岭分校）
本文提出一种结合插值、归一化与特征提取的 LSTM 充电负荷预测框架，可在日、周、月尺度上准确预测多地点 EV 充电需求，并支持不同部署场景。
A Lightweight DL Model for Smart Grid Power Forecasting with Feature and Resolution Mismatch
Center for Automotive Research (CAR), The Ohio State University（汽车研究中心（CAR），俄亥俄州立大学）；Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University（信息学院，伊斯坦布尔技术大学）；Computer Engineering Department, Konkuk University（计算机工程系，韩国康 kuk 大学）；Computer Science and Information Technology Department, Maulana Azad National Urdu University（计算机科学与信息技术系，莫拉尔·阿扎德国家乌尔都语大学）
University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）；Northrop Grumman Corporation（诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司）
Regression models, which are widely used from engineering applications to financial forecasting, are vulnerable to targeted malicious attacks such as training data poisoning, through which adversaries can manipulate their predictions. Previous works that attempt to address this problem rely on assumptions about the nature of the attack/attacker or overestimate the knowledge of the learner, making them impractical. We introduce a novel Local Intrinsic Dimensionality (LID) based measure called N-LID that measures the local deviation of a given data point's LID with respect to its neighbors. We t…
VitalBench: A Rigorous Multi-Center Benchmark for Long-Term Vital Sign Prediction in Intraoperative Care
Chengdu Institute of Computer Application, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院成都计算机应用研究所）；School of Computer Science and Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学计算机科学与技术学院）；Digital Intelligent Technology Branch, Southwest Oil & Gas Field, PetroChina（中国石油西南油气田分公司数字智能技术部）；China Zhenhua Research Institute Co., Ltd.（中国甄华研究院有限公司）；Department of Anesthesiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University & The Research Units of West China (2018RU012)（四川大学华西医院麻醉科及西京研究院（2018RU012））
University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
We consider the problem of data-assisted forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems when the available data is in the form of noisy partial measurements of the past and present state of the dynamical system. Recently there have been several promising data-driven approaches to forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems using machine learning. Particularly promising among these are hybrid approaches that combine machine learning with a knowledge-based model, where a machine-learning technique is used to correct the imperfections in the knowledge-based model. Such imperfections may be due to incomple…
Ransomware, a type of malicious software that encrypts a victim's files and only releases the cryptographic key once a ransom is paid, has emerged as a potentially devastating class of cybercrimes in the past few years. In this paper, we present RAPTOR, a promising line of defense against ransomware attacks. RAPTOR fingerprints attackers' operations to forecast ransomware activity. More specifically, our method learns features of malicious domains by looking at examples of domains involved in known ransomware attacks, and then monitors newly registered domains to identify potentially malicious…
Forecasting Medium-Horizon Alzheimer's Disease Progression: Residual Gap-Aware Transformers for 24-Month CDR-SB Change from ADNI Clinical and Biomarker Histories
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校数学科学系）；Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of Connecticut（康奈尔大学植物科学与景观建筑系）；Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校纳文·金达管理学院）；Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital（浙江省人民医院）
Smart meter measurements, though critical for accurate demand forecasting, face several drawbacks including consumers' privacy, data breach issues, to name a few. Recent literature has explored Federated Learning (FL) as a promising privacy-preserving machine learning alternative which enables collaborative learning of a model without exposing private raw data for short term load forecasting. Despite its virtue, standard FL is still vulnerable to an intractable cyber threat known as Byzantine attack carried out by faulty and/or malicious clients. Therefore, to improve the robustness of federat…
Long period (LP) earthquakes are common at active volcanoes, and are ubiquitous at persistently active andesitic and dacitic subduction zone volcanoes. They provide critical information regarding the state of volcanic unrest, and their occurrence rates are key data for eruption forecasting. LPs are commonly quasi-periodic or 'anti-clustered', unlike volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, so the existing Poisson point process methods used to model occurrence rates of VT earthquakes are unlikely to be optimal for LP data. We evaluate the performance of candidate formulations for LP data, based on in…
If cyber incidents are predicted a reasonable amount of time before they occur, defensive actions to prevent their destructive effects could be planned. Unfortunately, most of the time we do not have enough observables of the malicious activities before they are already under way. Therefore, this work suggests to use unconventional signals extracted from various data sources with different time granularities to predict cyber incidents for target entities. A Bayesian network is used to predict cyber attacks where the unconventional signals are used as indicative random variables. This work also…
Localization of Dummy Data Injection Attacks in Power Systems Considering Incomplete Topological Information: A Spatio-Temporal Graph Wavelet Convolutional Neural Network Approach
Northeast Electric Power University（东北电力大学）；Jilin Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid（国家电网吉林电力科学研究院）；Northeast Electric Power Design and Institute Co., Ltd. of China Power Engineering Consulting Group（中国电力工程顾问集团东北电力设计院有限公司）；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
