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arXiv 2605.16319cs.LGstat.APstat.ML
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中长期阿尔茨海默病进展预测:基于残差间隙感知的变换器用于ADNI临床和生物标志物历史的24个月CDR-SB变化

Forecasting Medium-Horizon Alzheimer's Disease Progression: Residual Gap-Aware Transformers for 24-Month CDR-SB Change from ADNI Clinical and Biomarker Histories

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas(德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校数学科学系);Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of Connecticut(康奈尔大学植物科学与景观建筑系);Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas(德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校纳文·金达管理学院);Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital(浙江省人民医院)

Ran Tong, Tong Wang, Lanruo Wang, Yin Ni

AI总结:

本文提出残差间隙感知变换器,结合混合效应统计参考与变换器残差学习,用于预测24个月CDR-SB变化,提升了预测精度和相关性。

摘要:

中长期阿尔茨海默病进展预测困难,因为未来临床评分可能与基线严重程度保持一致,而生物标志物历史不规则且不完全观察。我们开发了一种基于锚点的分析,利用统一的阿尔茨海默病神经影像计划(ADNI)表格分析24个月临床痴呆评定总箱数(CDR-SB)变化。每个标记样本在轻度认知障碍访问时锚定,仅使用在锚点之前观察到的临床和生物标志物历史,并将响应定义为在18-30个月窗口内最接近24个月的未来访问的CDR-SB减去锚定CDR-SB。分析队列包含来自858名受试者的2,600个标记锚点和7,276个纵向行。我们提出了一种残差间隙感知变换器,结合混合效应统计参考与基于变换器的残差学习,从预锚点的临床和生物标志物历史中学习。模型使用受试者层面的随机截距在混合效应参考中,观察层面的三元组标记化用于不规则历史,并在自注意力中学习非负时间间隙惩罚。我们比较了所提模型与通过贝叶斯信息准则选择的线性混合效应基线、GRU-D和STraTS在重复的受试者层面训练-测试分割下的表现。在五个受试者层面随机种子下,所提模型在所有报告指标上实现了最佳的平均测试性能,相对于混合效应基线,将MSE降低了13.1%,预测-观测相关性提高了26.4%。此外,它在均值误差和相关性上优于GRU-D和STraTS。这些结果表明,统计锚定和间隙感知残差学习为中长期阿尔茨海默病进展预测提供了一个有用的结构。

英文摘要:

Medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction is difficult because future clinical scores can remain tied to baseline severity, while biomarker histories are irregular and incompletely observed. We develop an anchor-based analysis of 24-month Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) change using harmonized Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) tables. Each labeled sample is anchored at a mild cognitive impairment visit, uses only clinical and biomarker history observed at or before that anchor, and defines the response as CDR-SB at the future visit closest to 24 months within an 18--30 month window minus anchor CDR-SB. The analytic cohort contains 2,600 labeled anchors from 858 participants and 7,276 longitudinal rows. We propose a residual gap-aware transformer that combines a mixed-effects statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning from pre-anchor clinical and biomarker histories. The model uses participant-level random intercepts in the mixed-effects reference, observation-level triplet tokenization for irregular histories, and a learned nonnegative time-gap penalty inside self-attention. We compare the proposed model with a Bayesian-information-criterion-selected linear mixed-effects baseline, GRU-D, and STraTS under repeated participant-level train--test splits. Across five participant-level random seeds, the proposed model achieves the best mean test performance across all reported metrics, reducing MSE by 13.1% and increasing prediction--observation correlation by 26.4% relative to the mixed-effects baseline. It also improves over both GRU-D and STraTS in mean error and correlation. These results show that statistical anchoring and gap-aware residual learning provide a useful structure for medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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