Understanding collective decision making at a large-scale, and elucidating how community organization and community dynamics shape collective behavior are at the heart of social science research. In this work we study the behavior of thousands of communities with millions of active members. We define a novel task: predicting which community will undertake an unexpected, large-scale, distributed campaign.
To this end, we develop a hybrid model, combining textual cues, community meta-data, and structural properties. We show how this multi-faceted model can accurately predict large-scale collective decision-making in a distributed environment. We demonstrate the applicability of our model through Reddit's r/place - a large-scale online experiment in which millions of users, self-organized in thousands of communities, clashed and collaborated in an effort to realize their agenda.
Our hybrid model achieves a high F1 prediction score of 0.826. We find that coarse meta-features are as important for prediction accuracy as fine-grained textual cues, while explicit structural features play a smaller role. Interpreting our model, we provide and support various social insights about the unique characteristics of the communities that participated in the \r/place experiment.
Our results and analysis shed light on the complex social dynamics that drive collective behavior, and on the factors that propel user coordination. The scale and the unique conditions of the \rp~experiment suggest that our findings may apply in broader contexts, such as online activism, (countering) the spread of hate speech and reducing political polarization. The broader applicability of the model is demonstrated through an extensive analysis of the WallStreetBets community, their role in r/place and four years later, in the GameStop short squeeze campaign of 2021.
The (((echo))) symbol -- triple parenthesis surrounding a name, made it to mainstream social networks in early 2016, with the intensification of the U.S. Presidential race. It was used by members of the alt-right, white supremacists and internet trolls to tag people of Jewish heritage -- a modern incarnation of the infamous yellow badge (Judenstern) used in Nazi-Germany. Tracking this trending meme, its meaning, and its function has proved elusive for its semantic ambiguity (e.g., a symbol for a virtual hug). In this paper we report of the construction of an appropriate dataset allowing the re…
The Russian Internet Research Agency's (IRA) online interference campaign in the 2016 U.S. presidential election represents a turning point in the trajectory of democratic elections in the digital age. What can we learn about how the IRA engages U.S. audiences, ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election? We provide the first in-depth analysis of the relationships between IRA content characteristics and user engagement on Facebook and Instagram around the 2016 election. We find that content targeting right-wing and non-Black marginalised groups had the strongest positive association with enga…
Widespread conspiracy theories, like those motivating anti-vaccination attitudes or climate change denial, propel collective action and bear society-wide consequences. Yet, empirical research has largely studied conspiracy theory adoption as an individual pursuit, rather than as a socially mediated process. What makes users join communities endorsing and spreading conspiracy theories? We leverage longitudinal data from 56 conspiracy communities on Reddit to compare individual and social factors determining which users join the communities. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we first identify…
With the significant increase in users on social media platforms, a new means of political campaigning has appeared. Twitter and Facebook are now notable campaigning tools during elections. Indeed, the candidates and their parties now take to the internet to interact and spread their ideas. In this paper, we aim to identify political communities formed on Twitter during the 2022 French presidential election and analyze each respective community. We create a large-scale Twitter dataset containing 1.2 million users and 62.6 million tweets that mention keywords relevant to the election. We perfor…
Although analyzing user behavior within individual communities is an active and rich research domain, people usually interact with multiple communities both on- and off-line. How do users act in such multi-community environments? Although there are a host of intriguing aspects to this question, it has received much less attention in the research community in comparison to the intra-community case. In this paper, we examine three aspects of multi-community engagement: the sequence of communities that users post to, the language that users employ in those communities, and the feedback that users…
This paper examines 3,517 Facebook ads created by Russia's Internet Research Agency (IRA) between June 2015 and August 2017 in its active measures disinformation campaign targeting the 2016 U.S. general election. We aimed to unearth the relationship between ad engagement (as measured by ad clicks) and 41 features related to ads' metadata, sociolinguistic structures, and sentiment. Our analysis was three-fold: (i) understand the relationship between engagement and features via correlation analysis; (ii) find the most relevant feature subsets to predict engagement via feature selection; and (iii…
A community's identity defines and shapes its internal dynamics. Our current understanding of this interplay is mostly limited to glimpses gathered from isolated studies of individual communities. In this work we provide a systematic exploration of the nature of this relation across a wide variety of online communities. To this end we introduce a quantitative, language-based typology reflecting two key aspects of a community's identity: how distinctive, and how temporally dynamic it is. By mapping almost 300 Reddit communities into the landscape induced by this typology, we reveal regularities…
While online hate groups pose significant risks to the health of online platforms and safety of marginalized groups, little is known about what causes users to become active in hate groups and the effect of social interactions on furthering their engagement. We address this gap by first developing tools to find hate communities within Reddit, and then augment 11 subreddits extracted with 14 known hateful subreddits (25 in total). Using causal inference methods, we evaluate the effect of replies on engagement in hateful subreddits by comparing users who receive replies to their first comment (t…
Evaluation of A National Digitally-Enabled Health Promotion Campaign for Mental Health Awareness using Social Media Platforms Tik Tok, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube
Understanding how different online communities engage with COVID-19 misinformation is critical for public health response, as misinformation confined to a small, isolated community of users poses a different public health risk than misinformation being consumed by a large population spanning many diverse communities. Here we take a longitudinal approach that leverages tools from network science to study COVID-19 misinformation on Twitter. Our approach provides a means to examine the breadth of misinformation engagement using modest data needs and computational resources. We identify influentia…
With social media penetration deepening among both citizens and political figures, there is a pressing need to understand whether and how political use of major platforms is electorally influential. Particularly, the literature focused on campaign usage is thin and often describe the engagement strategies of politicians or attempt to quantify the impact of social media engagement on political learning, participation, or voting. Few have considered implications for campaign fundraising despite its recognized importance in American politics. This paper is the first to quantify a financial payoff…
COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has increased concerns about vaccine uptake required to overcome the pandemic and protect public health. A critical factor associated with anti-vaccine attitudes is the information shared on social media. In this work, we investigate misinformation communities and narratives that can contribute to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. During the pandemic, anti-science and political misinformation/conspiracies have been rampant on social media. Therefore, we investigate misinformation and conspiracy groups and their characteristic behaviours in Twitter data collected on COVID-1…
From conspiracy theories to fake cures and fake treatments, COVID-19 has become a hot-bed for the spread of misinformation online. It is more important than ever to identify methods to debunk and correct false information online. In this paper, we present a methodology and analyses to characterize the two competing COVID-19 misinformation communities online: (i) misinformed users or users who are actively posting misinformation, and (ii) informed users or users who are actively spreading true information, or calling out misinformation. The goals of this study are two-fold: (i) collecting a div…
Loyalty is an essential component of multi-community engagement. When users have the choice to engage with a variety of different communities, they often become loyal to just one, focusing on that community at the expense of others. However, it is unclear how loyalty is manifested in user behavior, or whether loyalty is encouraged by certain community characteristics. In this paper we operationalize loyalty as a user-community relation: users loyal to a community consistently prefer it over all others; loyal communities retain their loyal users over time. By exploring this relation using a lar…
Gender-based violence (GBV) is a human-generated crisis, existing in various forms, including offline, via physical and sexual violence, and now online via harassment and trolling. While studying social media campaigns for different domains such as public health, natural crises, etc. has received attention in the literature, such studies for GBV are still in nascent form. The dynamics of campaigns responding to curb this crisis could benefit from systematic investigation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine such public campaigns involving social media by organizations operatin…
Many years after online social networks exceeded our collective attention, social influence is still built on attention capital. Quality is not a prerequisite for viral spreading, yet large diffusion cascades remain the hallmark of a social influencer. Consequently, our exposure to low-quality content and questionable influence is expected to increase. Since the conception of influence maximization frameworks, multiple content performance metrics became available, albeit raising the complexity of influence analysis. In this paper, we examine and consolidate a diverse set of content engagement …
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；GESIS（莱布尼茨社会科学研究所）
Online discussion platforms offer a forum to strengthen and propagate belief in misinformed conspiracy theories. Yet, they also offer avenues for conspiracy theorists to express their doubts and experiences of cognitive dissonance. Such expressions of dissonance may shed light on who abandons misguided beliefs and under which circumstances. This paper characterizes self-disclosures of dissonance about QAnon, a conspiracy theory initiated by a mysterious leader Q and popularized by their followers, anons in conspiracy theory subreddits. To understand what dissonance and disbelief mean within co…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；GESIS（莱布尼茨社会科学研究所）
The disruptive offline mobilization of participants in online conspiracy theory (CT) discussions has highlighted the importance of understanding how online users may form radicalized conspiracy beliefs. While prior work researched the factors leading up to joining online CT discussions and provided theories of how conspiracy beliefs form, we have little understanding of how conspiracy radicalization evolves after users join CT discussion communities. In this paper, we provide the empirical modeling of various radicalization phases in online CT discussion participants. To unpack how conspiracy …
Viral campaigns are crucial methods for word-of-mouth marketing in social communities. The goal of these campaigns is to encourage people for activity. The problem of incentivised and non-incentivised campaigns is studied in the paper. Based on the data collected within the real social networking site both approaches were compared. The experimental results revealed that a highly motivated campaign not necessarily provides better results due to overlapping effect. Additional studies have shown that the behaviour of individual community members in the campaign based on their service profile can …
Political astroturfing and organised trolling are online malicious behaviours with significant real-world effects. Common approaches examining these phenomena focus on broad campaigns rather than the small groups responsible. To reveal latent networks of cooperating accounts, we propose a novel temporal window approach that relies on account interactions and metadata alone. It detects groups of accounts engaging in behaviours that, in concert, execute different goal-based strategies, which we describe. Our approach is validated against two relevant datasets with ground truth data.
With the wide adoption of the multi-community setting in many popular social media platforms, the increasing user engagements across multiple online communities warrant research attention. In this paper, we introduce a novel analogy between the movements in the cyber space and the physical space. This analogy implies a new way of studying human online activities by modelling the activities across online communities in a similar fashion as the movements among locations. First, we quantitatively validate the analogy by comparing several important properties of human online activities and physica…
Vaccines are promising tools to control the spread of COVID-19. An effective vaccination campaign requires government policies and community engagement, sharing experiences for social support, and voicing concerns to vaccine safety and efficiency. The increasing use of online social platforms allows us to trace large-scale communication and infer public opinion in real-time. We collected more than 100 million vaccine-related tweets posted by 8 million users and used the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to perform automated topic modeling of tweet texts during the vaccination campaign in Japan…
Research on influence maximization has often to cope with marketing needs relating to the propagation of information towards specific users. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that the success of an information diffusion campaign might depend not only on the number of the initial influencers to be detected but also on their diversity w.r.t. the target of the campaign. Our main hypothesis is that if we learn seeds that are not only capable of influencing but also are linked to more diverse (groups of) users, then the influence triggers will be diversified as well, and hence the…
The rise of social media accompanied by the Covid-19 Pandemic has instigated a shift in paradigm in the presidential campaigns in Iran from the real world to social media. Unlike previous presidential elections, there was a decrease in physical events and advertisements for the candidates; in turn, the online presence of presidential candidates is significantly increased. Farsi Twitter played a specific role in this matter, as it became the platform for creating political content. In this study, we found traces of organizational activities in Farsi Twitter. Our investigations reveals that the …
Americans are increasingly relying on crowdfunding to pay for the costs of healthcare. In medical crowdfunding, online platforms allow individuals to appeal to social networks to request donations for health and medical needs. Users are often told that success depends on how they organize and share their campaigns to increase social network engagement. However, experts have cautioned that MCF could exacerbate health and social disparities by amplifying the choices and biases of the crowd and leveraging these to determine who has access to financial support for healthcare. To date, research on …
Users organize themselves into communities on web platforms. These communities can interact with one another, often leading to conflicts and toxic interactions. However, little is known about the mechanisms of interactions between communities and how they impact users. Here we study intercommunity interactions across 36,000 communities on Reddit, examining cases where users of one community are mobilized by negative sentiment to comment in another community. We show that such conflicts tend to be initiated by a handful of communities---less than 1% of communities start 74% of conflicts. While …
University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Australian Red Cross（澳大利亚红十字会）
Social media has been a powerful tool and an integral part of communication, especially during natural disasters. Social media platforms help nonprofits in effective disaster management by disseminating crucial information to various communities at the earliest. Besides spreading information to every corner of the world, various platforms incorporate many features that give access to host online fundraising events, process online donations, etc. The current literature lacks the theoretical structure investigating the correlation between social media engagement and crisis management. Large nonp…
Online crowdfunding platforms like DonorsChoose.org and Kickstarter allow specific projects to get funded by targeted contributions from a large number of people. Critical for the success of crowdfunding communities is recruitment and continued engagement of donors. With donor attrition rates above 70%, a significant challenge for online crowdfunding platforms as well as traditional offline non-profit organizations is the problem of donor retention. We present a large-scale study of millions of donors and donations on DonorsChoose.org, a crowdfunding platform for education projects. Studying a…
As the number and the diversity of news outlets on the Web grow, so does the opportunity for "alternative" sources of information to emerge. Using large social networks like Twitter and Facebook, misleading, false, or agenda-driven information can quickly and seamlessly spread online, deceiving people or influencing their opinions. Also, the increased engagement of tightly knit communities, such as Reddit and 4chan, further compounds the problem, as their users initiate and propagate alternative information, not only within their own communities, but also to different ones as well as various s…
When large social-media platforms allow users to easily form and self-organize into interest groups, highly related communities can arise. For example, the Reddit site hosts not just a group called food, but also HealthyFood, foodhacks, foodporn, and cooking, among others. Are these highly related communities created for similar classes of reasons (e.g., to focus on a subtopic, to create a place for allegedly more "high-minded" discourse, etc.)? How do users allocate attention between such close alternatives when they are available or emerge over time? Are there different types of relations be…
With the ubiquity of Internet technologies and growing demands for transparency and open data policies, the role of social networking and online deliberation tools for public engagement in decision-making has increased substantially in the last decades. In this paper, we present the analysis of how social media are used by different public bodies to enhance public participation in deliberative democracy. We collected and reviewed published information on the subject and carried out a field base assessment, involving structured interviews with different government representatives and urban poli…
Building a successful community means governing active populations and limited resources. This challenge often requires communities to design formal governance systems from scratch. But the characteristics of successful institutional designs are unclear. Communities that are more mature and established may have more elaborate formal policy systems. Alternatively, they may require less formalization precisely because of their maturity. Indeed, scholars often downplay the role that formal rules relative to unwritten rules, norms, and values. But in a community with formal rules, decisions are mo…
Social media have substantially altered the way brands and businesses advertise: Online Social Networks provide brands with more versatile and dynamic channels for advertisement than traditional media (e.g., TV and radio). Levels of engagement in such media are usually measured in terms of content adoption (e.g., likes and retweets) and sentiment, around a given topic. However, sentiment analysis and topic identification are both non-trivial tasks. In this paper, using data collected from Twitter as a case study, we analyze how engagement and sentiment in promoted content spread over a 10-day …
Nokia Bell Labs（诺基亚贝尔实验室）；University of Turin（都灵大学）；Flickr
User participation in online communities is driven by the intertwinement of the social network structure with the crowd-generated content that flows along its links. These aspects are rarely explored jointly and at scale. By looking at how users generate and access pictures of varying beauty on Flickr, we investigate how the production of quality impacts the dynamics of online social systems. We develop a deep learning computer vision model to score images according to their aesthetic value and we validate its output through crowdsourcing. By applying it to over 15B Flickr photos, we study for…
Machines in the Crowd? Measuring the Footprint of Machine-Generated Text on Reddit
DIMES Dept., University of Calabria Italy；IT University of Copenhagen\ Centre for AI Denmark；DIMES Dept., University of Calabria；IT University of Copenhagen\ Centre for AI
