论货币和价格通货膨胀与恶性通货膨胀的本质
On the nature of monetary and price inflation and hyperinflation
摘要：
货币通货膨胀是指货币供应量的持续增加，而不是导致价格通货膨胀，即商品和服务价格的总体水平上升。本文的目的是开发经济模型，以（1）预测美国消费者价格指数（CPI）的年增长率，基于美国广义货币供应量（BMS）的年增长率，美国实际GDP的年增长率，以及美国储蓄的年增长率，从2001年到2019年;（2）研究货币和价格通货膨胀发展为货币和价格恶性通货膨胀的途径。假设美国CPI的年增长率是美国BMS的年增长率减去美国实际GDP的年增长率减去美国储蓄的年增长率的函数，在调查的时间段内，已经被证明是如此。然而，精确的关系需要使用非零的残差项。一个恶性通货膨胀过程的数学统计公式已经被提供，并被用来量化魏玛共和国从1922年7月到1923年11月底的恶性通货膨胀时期。
英文摘要：
Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply than can result in price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The objectives of this paper were to develop economic models to (1) predict the annual rate of growth in the US consumer price index (CPI), based on the annual growth in the US broad money supply (BMS), the annual growth in US real GDP, and the annual growth in US savings, over the time period 2001 to 2019; (2) investigate the means by which monetary and price inflation can develop into monetary and price hyperinflation. The hypothesis that the annual rate of growth in the US CPI is a function of the annual growth in the US BMS minus the annual growth in US real GDP minus the annual growth in US savings, over the time period investigated, has been shown to be the case. However, an exact relationship required the use of a non-zero residual term. A mathematical statistical formulation of a hyperinflationary process has been provided and used to quantify the period of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic, from July 1922 until the end of November 1923.
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