审查对冰岛银行系统的Veraletryggslán（指数挂钩贷款）的影响
An examination of the effect on the Icelandic Banking System of Verðtryggð Lán (Indexed-Linked Loans)
摘要：
1979年，在经历了十年的恶性通货膨胀之后，冰岛推出了负摊销指数挂钩贷款，其未偿还本金增加了消费者价格通货膨胀指数（CPI）。这些贷款是政府一般政策的一部分，该政策利用与消费物价指数无关的数据来解决恶性通货膨胀的经济后果。虽然大多数其他形式的抵押贷款随后被取消，但抵押贷款仍然存在，这些贷款现在构成冰岛抵押贷款的大部分。尽管人们仍然经常认为，指数挂钩贷款有助于阻止恶性通货膨胀，但这些论点通常是基于对冰岛经济的高层次宏观经济解释，他们未能确定支持其主张的具体机制。在本文中，我们采取相反的方法，并提出了一个详细的分析，用于贷款的货币机制，在复式簿记的银行系统。根据这一分析，似乎没有证据或机制支持与指数挂钩的贷款减少或停止通货膨胀的说法。相反：我们的研究表明，这些贷款在银行体系内的簿记处理直接有助于银行体系的货币扩张率，因此，与指数挂钩的贷款会增加而不是降低与之挂钩的通货膨胀率，从而在银行体系的货币调控中直接对货币供应量产生正反馈循环。由于货币扩张的反馈只发生在年CPI率高于约2%时，我们建议一个解决方案是将货币供应量稳定在0%的增长率，我们探索了一些通过修改冰岛银行系统内的巴塞尔监管框架来实现的方法。
英文摘要：
In 1979 following a decade of hyperinflation, Iceland introduced Verðtryggð lán, negatively amortised, index-linked loans whose outstanding principal is increased by the rate of the consumer price inflation index(CPI). The loans were part of a general government policy which used indexation to the CPI to address the economic consequences of the hyperinflation. Although most other forms of indexation were subsequently removed, loan indexation has remained, and these loans now comprise the majority of mortgages in Iceland. Although it is still often argued that index-linked loans helped to stop the hyperinflation, these arguments are typically based on high level macro-economic interpretations of the Icelandic economy, they fail to identify specific mechanisms to support their claims. In this paper we take the opposite approach, and present a detailed analysis of the monetary mechanics used for the loans at the double entry bookkeeping level of the banking system. Based on this analysis there appears to be no evidence or mechanism that would support the claim that index-linked loans reduce or stop inflation. On the contrary: our research shows that the bookkeeping treatment of these loans within the banking system directly contributes to the banking system's monetary expansion rate, and hence index-linked loans act to increase the inflation rate to which they are linked, rather than reducing it. They consequently create a positive feedback loop within the banking system's monetary regulation operating directly on the money supply. Since the feedback into monetary expansion only occurs at annual CPI rates above approximately 2%, we suggest one solution would be to stabilise the money supply to 0% growth, and we explore some ways this could be achieved by modifying the Basel Regulatory Framework within the Icelandic Banking System.
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