恶性通货膨胀事件演化中的时间奇异性
Finite-time singularity in the evolution of hyperinflation episodes
摘要：
Sornette，Takayasu，和周提出的模型描述恶性通货膨胀制度的基础上表示的幂律，导致有限时间奇点的自适应预期被重新审视。有人建议，以明确的价格指数演变的参数引入沿理论公式，避免在原来的工作中使用的任何组合。这一程序允许明确的研究这些参数的不确定性时，错误被分配到价格指数的测量。以这种方式，可以确定奇点发生的临界时间的不确定性。为此，应用蒙特卡罗模拟技术。秘鲁（1969- 1990年）和魏玛德国（1920- 1923年）的恶性通货膨胀事件被重新审视。在此框架内进行的第一次分析非常极端的恶性通货膨胀发生在希腊（1941-4）和南斯拉夫（1991-4）的报告。对津巴布韦最近经历的恶性通货膨胀螺旋的研究预测了一个奇点，即，两年内彻底的经济崩溃
英文摘要：
A model proposed by Sornette, Takayasu, and Zhou for describing hyperinflation regimes based on adaptive expectations expressed in terms of a power law which leads to a finite-time singularity is revisited. It is suggested to express the price index evolution explicitly in terms of the parameters introduced along the theoretical formulation avoiding any combination of them used in the original work. This procedure allows to study unambiguously the uncertainties of such parameters when an error is assigned to the measurement of the price index. In this way, it is possible to determine an uncertainty in the critical time at which the singularity occurs. For this purpose, Monte Carlo simulation techniques are applied. The hyperinflation episodes of Peru (1969-90) and Weimar Germany (1920-3) are reexamined. The first analyses performed within this framework of the very extreme hyper-inflations occurred in Greece (1941-4) and Yugoslavia (1991-4) are reported. The study of the hyperinflation spiral experienced just nowadays in Zimbabwe predicts a singularity, i.e., a complete economic crash within two years.
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