arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2109.07397astro-ph.EPastro-ph.IMcs.NAmath.NA
收藏

一种改进的近地小行星定轨和预报方法:计算机模拟、建模和试验测量

An Improved Approach to Orbital Determination and Prediction of Near-Earth Asteroids: Computer Simulation, Modeling and Test Measurements

Muhammad Farae, Cameron Woo, Anka Hu

摘要:

在这篇文章中,现代天体物理学的理论分析方法与测试研究级望远镜一起适当地操作,以根据原始观测,测量和计算来成像和确定近地小行星的轨道。随后,计算了它的内在轨道路径,包括它可能在未来撞击地球的机会。更具体地说,本案例研究采用了最有效,可行和新颖的高斯方法,以操纵小行星的轨道平面组件,通过六周内获得的观测数据,进一步阐述和扩展我们对选定的近地小行星(即12538-1998 OH)的探测。利用CCD(电荷耦合器件)捕获的快照,我们模拟和计算我们的小行星的轨道,在相当详细的解释概述。不确定性和预期值的偏差,得出判断我们的实证研究结果是否是真正可靠的和代表性的测量,通过参与基于统计分析的系统方法。最后叙述了什么可能导致这种差异的调查结果摆在首位,如果有的话,提出了可以采取的措施,以改善测试情况下,为今后的调查研究。在使用蒙特卡罗分析计算轨道要素及其不确定性之后,对各种样本天体进行了模拟,以得出关于小行星1998 OH的命运的合理预测。最后,天体测量和光度测量数据在经过精确核实后,正式提交给小行星中心:一个由哈佛大学和史密森尼天体物理学中心主办,由美国航天局资助的组织,负责跟踪小行星的潜在轨道。

英文摘要:

In this article, theory-based analytical methodologies of astrophysics employed in the modern era are suitably operated alongside a test research-grade telescope to image and determine the orbit of a near-earth asteroid from original observations, measurements, and calculations. Subsequently, its intrinsic orbital path has been calculated including the chance it would likely impact Earth in the time ahead. More so specifically, this case-study incorporates the most effective, feasible, and novel Gauss's Method in order to maneuver the orbital plane components of a planetesimal, further elaborating and extending our probes on a selected near-earth asteroid (namely the 12538-1998 OH) through the observational data acquired over a six week period. Utilizing the CCD (Charge Coupled Device) snapshots captured, we simulate and calculate the orbit of our asteroid as outlined in quite detailed explanations. The uncertainties and deviations from the expected values are derived to reach a judgement whether our empirical findings are truly reliable and representative measurements by partaking a statistical analysis based systematic approach. Concluding the study by narrating what could have caused such discrepancy of findings in the first place, if any, measures are put forward that could be undertaken to improve the test-case for future investigations. Following the calculation of orbital elements and their uncertainties using Monte Carlo analysis, simulations were executed with various sample celestial bodies to derive a plausible prediction regarding the fate of Asteroid 1998 OH. Finally, the astrometric and photometric data, after their precise verification, were officially submitted to the Minor Planet Center: an organization hosted by the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard and Smithsonian and funded by NASA, for keeping track of the asteroid's potential trajectories.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑