全球小行星风险分析
Global Asteroid Risk Analysis
摘要：
分析了可能撞击地球的小行星撞击地球的风险。为此，目前正在开发小行星风险减缓优化和研究工具。该工具的模块进行了描述，并记录其验证。该工具根据小行星星历表计算撞击地点在地球表面的概率分布（在文献中，有时称为风险走廊）。美国航天局的近地天体风险清单是小行星星历表的来源。采用变差线法（LOV）来寻找虚拟撞击物。在提供识别虚拟撞击物的简单且快速的方式的同时，该方法提供低撞击物识别率。这是因为搜索空间被严格限制在LOV范围内，因此排除了位于小行星位置不确定区域其他地方的虚拟撞击物。对该方法的性能进行了评价，并提出了改进建议。该工具的应用表明，小行星的威胁是全球性的：撞击地点广泛分布在地球表面。通过将撞击位置概率分布与地球人口数据相结合，对全球小行星风险进行了估计。高风险区域的确定导致了对与小行星有关的风险动态的讨论。未来对小行星威胁的反应将取决于小行星对人口构成的风险。概述了ARMOR作为应对小行星威胁的决策支持工具的潜在适用性。
英文摘要：
Potentially impacting asteroids were analysed for their impact risk on the Earth. To this end, the Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool is currently being developed. The tool's modules are described and their validation is documented. Based on the asteroid ephemeris, the tool calculates the impact location probability distribution on the surface of the Earth (in the literature, occasionally referred to as risk corridor). NASA's Near Earth Object (NEO) risk list served as the source for asteroid ephemerides. The Line of Variation (LOV) method was employed to find virtual impactors. While offering a simple and fast way of identifying virtual impactors, the method provides a low impactor identification rate. This is because the search space is tightly constricted to the LOV and thus excludes virtual impactors located elsewhere in the asteroid position uncertainty region. The method's performance was evaluated and suggestions for improvements are provided. Application of the tool showed that the asteroid threat is global in nature: impact locations were distributed widely over the Earth's surface. The global asteroid risk was estimated by combining the impact location probability distribution with Earth population data. The identification of high risk regions lead to a discussion about the dynamics of the risk associated with asteroids. The future response to an asteroid threat will depend on the risk that the asteroid poses to the population. The potential applicability of ARMOR as a decision-support tool for responding to the asteroid threat is outlined.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
