用于小行星撞击风险评估的人口脆弱性模型
Population Vulnerability Models for Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment
摘要：
小行星撞击是一种低概率事件，具有潜在的破坏性后果。小行星风险缓解优化和研究（ARMOR）软件工具计算碰撞的小行星是否经历空中爆炸或表面撞击，并计算影响的严重程度以及在全球地图上的范围。为了计算撞击造成的人命损失，推导出了新的脆弱性模型，将七种撞击效应（强风、超压冲击波、热辐射、地震震动、喷出物沉积、弹坑和海啸）的严重程度与对人口的致命性联系起来。利用新的脆弱性模型，ARMOR在考虑当地人口和地理因素的情况下估计了撞击造成的伤亡。所提出的算法和模型在两个案例研究中，估计总伤亡人数以及每个影响的损害贡献。这些案例研究突出表明，除海啸是主要危险的深水影响外，空气动力学影响的危害最大。大陆架对大陆架上的撞击物造成的海啸危险具有保护作用。此外，计算撞击后果有助于对小行星风险进行估计，以便更好地描述特定威胁的特征，并介绍了风险概念及其对小行星撞击情景的适用性。
英文摘要：
An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life, new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact effects (strong winds, overpressure shockwave, thermal radiation, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition, cratering and tsunamis) with lethality to human populations. With the new vulnerability models ARMOR estimates casualties of an impact under consideration of the local population and geography. The presented algorithms and models are employed in two case studies to estimate total casualties as well as the damage contribution of each impact effect. The case studies highlight that aerothermal effects are most harmful except for deep water impacts, where tsunamis are the dominant hazard. Continental shelves serve a protective function against the tsunami hazard caused by impactors on the shelf. Furthermore, the calculation of impact consequences facilitates asteroid risk estimation to better characterize a given threat and the concept of risk as well as its applicability to the asteroid impact scenario are presented.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
