农业系统中的土地利用变化：基于元胞自动机方法的农民决策和种植系统绩效的综合生态-社会模拟模型
Land use change in agricultural systems: an integrated ecological-social simulation model of farmer decisions and cropping system performance based on a cellular automata approach
摘要：
农业系统经历着由人口增长和强化技术投入驱动的土地使用变化。这导致土地利用和覆被变化（LUCC）的动态，代表一个复杂的景观转换过程。为了研究LUCC过程，我们开发了一个空间显式的基于代理的模型的形式与Cell-DEVS形式主义实现的元胞自动机。由此产生的模型称为AgroDEVS用于预测LUCC动态及其相关的经济和环境变化。AgroDEVS是使用行为规则和功能构建的，这些规则和功能表示a）作物产量，b）天气条件，c）经济利润，d）农民偏好，e）技术水平采用和f）基于体现能源核算的自然资源消耗。利用1988-2015年期间潘帕地区（阿根廷）一个典型地点的数据，模拟活动表明，平均每10年中有6年实现经济目标，但每10年中只有1.9年实现环境阈值。在一组50年的模拟中，LUCC模式迅速收敛到最有利可图的作物序列，经济和环境条件之间没有明显的权衡。
英文摘要：
Agricultural systems experience land-use changes that are driven by population growth and intensification of technological inputs. This results in land-use and cover change (LUCC) dynamics representing a complex landscape transformation process. In order to study the LUCC process we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model in the form of a Cellular Automata implemented with the Cell-DEVS formalism. The resulting model called AgroDEVS is used for predicting LUCC dynamics along with their associated economic and environmental changes. AgroDEVS is structured using behavioral rules and functions representing a) crop yields, b) weather conditions, c) economic profit, d) farmer preferences, e) technology level adoption and f) natural resources consumption based on embodied energy accounting. Using data from a typical location of the Pampa region (Argentina) for the 1988-2015 period, simulation exercises showed that the economic goals were achieved, on average, each 6 out of 10 years, but the environmental thresholds were only achieved in 1.9 out of 10 years. In a set of 50-years simulations, LUCC patterns quickly converge towards the most profitable crop sequences, with no noticeable tradeoff between the economic and environmental conditions.
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