This monograph develops a comprehensive statistical learning framework that is robust to (distributional) perturbations in the data using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) under the Wasserstein metric. Beginning with fundamental properties of the Wasserstein metric and the DRO formulation, we explore duality to arrive at tractable formulations and develop finite-sample, as well as asymptotic, performance guarantees. We consider a series of learning problems, including (i) distributionally robust linear regression; (ii) distributionally robust regression with group structure in the predictors; (iii) distributionally robust multi-output regression and multiclass classification, (iv) optimal decision making that combines distributionally robust regression with nearest-neighbor estimation; (v) distributionally robust semi-supervised learning, and (vi) distributionally robust reinforcement learning. A tractable DRO relaxation for each problem is being derived, establishing a connection between robustness and regularization, and obtaining bounds on the prediction and estimation errors of the solution. Beyond theory, we include numerical experiments and case studies using synthetic and real data. The real data experiments are all associated with various health informatics problems, an application area which provided the initial impetus for this work.
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has attracted attention in machine learning due to its connections to regularization, generalization, and robustness. Existing work has considered uncertainty sets based on phi-divergences and Wasserstein distances, each of which have drawbacks. In this paper, we study DRO with uncertainty sets measured via maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). We show that MMD DRO is roughly equivalent to regularization by the Hilbert norm and, as a byproduct, reveal deep connections to classic results in statistical learning. In particular, we obtain an alternative proof …
Yale University（耶鲁大学）；Wyze Labs Inc.（Wyze实验室公司）；The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
To train machine learning models that are robust to distribution shifts in the data, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been proven very effective. However, the existing approaches to learning a distributionally robust model either require solving complex optimization problems such as semidefinite programming or a first-order method whose convergence scales linearly with the number of data samples -- which hinders their scalability to large datasets. In this paper, we show how different variants of DRO are simply instances of a finite-sum composite optimization for which we provide…
We develop a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) formulation for Multiclass Logistic Regression (MLR), which could tolerate data contaminated by outliers. The DRO framework uses a probabilistic ambiguity set defined as a ball of distributions that are close to the empirical distribution of the training set in the sense of the Wasserstein metric. We relax the DRO formulation into a regularized learning problem whose regularizer is a norm of the coefficient matrix. We establish out-of-sample performance guarantees for the solutions to our model, offering insights on the role of the regula…
We propose a novel method for semi-supervised learning (SSL) based on data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) using optimal transport metrics. Our proposed method enhances generalization error by using the unlabeled data to restrict the support of the worst case distribution in our DRO formulation. We enable the implementation of our DRO formulation by proposing a stochastic gradient descent algorithm which allows to easily implement the training procedure. We demonstrate that our Semi-supervised DRO method is able to improve the generalization error over natural supervised proc…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Facebook AI Research（脸书人工智能研究院）；New York University（纽约大学）
Machine learning systems based on minimizing average error have been shown to perform inconsistently across notable subsets of the data, which is not exposed by a low average error for the entire dataset. In consequential social and economic applications, where data represent people, this can lead to discrimination of underrepresented gender and ethnic groups. Given the importance of bias mitigation in machine learning, the topic leads to contentious debates on how to ensure fairness in practice (data bias versus algorithmic bias). Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) seemingly addresses…
IBM Research AI（IBM研究院人工智能中心）；Colorado State University-Pueblo（科罗拉多州立大学普韦布洛分校）
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems are increasingly seen as a viable method to train machine learning models for improved model generalization. These min-max formulations, however, are more difficult to solve. We therefore provide a new stochastic gradient descent algorithm to efficiently solve this DRO formulation. Our approach applies gradient descent to the outer minimization formulation and estimates the gradient of the inner maximization based on a sample average approximation. The latter uses a subset of the data in each iteration, progressively increasing the subset siz…
University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；New York University（纽约大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has recently achieved empirical success for various applications in operations research and machine learning, owing partly to its regularization effect. Although connection between Wasserstein DRO and regularization has been established in several settings, existing results often require restrictive assumptions, such as smoothness or convexity, that are not satisfied for many problems. In this paper, we develop a general theory on the variation regularization effect of the Wasserstein DRO - a new form of regularization that generalizes tot…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；University of Freiburg（弗赖堡大学）
We propose kernel distributionally robust optimization (Kernel DRO) using insights from the robust optimization theory and functional analysis. Our method uses reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) to construct a wide range of convex ambiguity sets, which can be generalized to sets based on integral probability metrics and finite-order moment bounds. This perspective unifies multiple existing robust and stochastic optimization methods. We prove a theorem that generalizes the classical duality in the mathematical problem of moments. Enabled by this theorem, we reformulate the maximization wi…
In this paper, we propose a practical online method for solving a class of distributionally robust optimization (DRO) with non-convex objectives, which has important applications in machine learning for improving the robustness of neural networks. In the literature, most methods for solving DRO are based on stochastic primal-dual methods. However, primal-dual methods for DRO suffer from several drawbacks: (1) manipulating a high-dimensional dual variable corresponding to the size of data is time expensive; (2) they are not friendly to online learning where data is coming sequentially. To addre…
Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) aims to find robust and generalizable solutions by hedging against data perturbations in Wasserstein distance. Despite its recent empirical success in operations research and machine learning, existing performance guarantees for generic loss functions are either overly conservative due to the curse of dimensionality, or plausible only in large sample asymptotics. In this paper, we develop a non-asymptotic framework for analyzing the out-of-sample performance for Wasserstein robust learning and the generalization bound for its related Lipsc…
Our goal is to train control policies that generalize well to unseen environments. Inspired by the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework, we propose DRAGEN - Distributionally Robust policy learning via Adversarial Generation of ENvironments - for iteratively improving robustness of policies to realistic distribution shifts by generating adversarial environments. The key idea is to learn a generative model for environments whose latent variables capture cost-predictive and realistic variations in environments. We perform DRO with respect to a Wasserstein ball around the empirical…
We develop a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) formulation for Multiclass Logistic Regression (MLR), which could tolerate data contaminated by outliers. The DRO framework uses a probabilistic ambiguity set defined as a ball of distributions that are close to the empirical distribution of the training set in the sense of the Wasserstein metric. We relax the DRO formulation into a regularized learning problem whose regularizer is a norm of the coefficient matrix. We establish out-of-sample performance guarantees for the solutions to our model, offering insights on the role of the regula…
Centre Sciences des Données（数据科学中心）；École normale supérieure PSL（巴黎高等师范学院（PSL大学））；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
As machine learning models are deployed ever more broadly, it becomes increasingly important that they are not only able to perform well on their training distribution, but also yield accurate predictions when confronted with distribution shift. The Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework proposes to address this issue by training models to minimize their expected risk under a collection of distributions, to imitate test-time shifts. This is most commonly achieved by instance-level re-weighting of the training objective to emulate the likelihood ratio with possible test distributi…
Established approaches to obtain generalization bounds in data-driven optimization and machine learning mostly build on solutions from empirical risk minimization (ERM), which depend crucially on the functional complexity of the hypothesis class. In this paper, we present an alternate route to obtain these bounds on the solution from distributionally robust optimization (DRO), a recent data-driven optimization framework based on worst-case analysis and the notion of ambiguity set to capture statistical uncertainty. In contrast to the hypothesis class complexity in ERM, our DRO bounds depend on…
Adaptive Sample-Level Framework Motivated by Distributionally Robust Optimization with Variance-Based Radius Assignment for Enhanced Neural Network Generalization Under Distribution Shift
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)（孟加拉国工程技术大学）
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Cornell Tech（康奈尔科技校区）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Arena Technologies（Arena科技公司）；New York University（纽约大学）
Off-policy evaluation and learning (OPE/L) use offline observational data to make better decisions, which is crucial in applications where online experimentation is limited. However, depending entirely on logged data, OPE/L is sensitive to environment distribution shifts -- discrepancies between the data-generating environment and that where policies are deployed. \citet{si2020distributional} proposed distributionally robust OPE/L (DROPE/L) to address this, but the proposal relies on inverse-propensity weighting, whose estimation error and regret will deteriorate if propensities are nonparamet…
A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification
Contextual Robotics Institute, University of California San Diego（加州大学圣迭戈分校语境机器人研究所）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）；ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）
Criteo AI Labs（Criteo人工智能实验室）；LTCI, Telecom ParisTech（巴黎高等电信学院LTCI实验室）；LPSM, Université Paris 6（巴黎第六大学LPSM实验室）
This manuscript introduces the idea of using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) for the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) problem. Tapping into a rich existing literature, we show that DRO is a principled tool for counterfactual decision making. We also show that well-established solutions to the CRM problem like sample variance penalization schemes are special instances of a more general DRO problem. In this unifying framework, a variety of distributionally robust counterfactual risk estimators can be constructed using various probability distances and divergences as uncertainty …
We develop Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) formulations for Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) and Multiclass Logistic Regression (MLG) when both the covariates and responses/labels may be contaminated by outliers. The DRO framework uses a probabilistic ambiguity set defined as a ball of distributions that are close to the empirical distribution of the training set in the sense of the Wasserstein metric. We relax the DRO formulation into a regularized learning problem whose regularizer is a norm of the coefficient matrix. We establish out-of-sample performance guarantees for the s…
Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has been shown to provide a flexible framework for decision making under uncertainty and statistical estimation. For example, recent works in DRO have shown that popular statistical estimators can be interpreted as the solutions of suitable formulated data-driven DRO problems. In turn, this connection is used to optimally select tuning parameters in terms of a principled approach informed by robustness considerations. This paper contributes to this growing literature, connecting DRO and statistics, by showing how boosting algorithms can be studied via…
This paper shows that dropout training in Generalized Linear Models is the minimax solution of a two-player, zero-sum game where an adversarial nature corrupts a statistician's covariates using a multiplicative nonparametric errors-in-variables model. In this game, nature's least favorable distribution is dropout noise, where nature independently deletes entries of the covariate vector with some fixed probability $δ$. This result implies that dropout training indeed provides out-of-sample expected loss guarantees for distributions that arise from multiplicative perturbations of in-sample data.…
Overparameterized neural networks can be highly accurate on average on an i.i.d. test set yet consistently fail on atypical groups of the data (e.g., by learning spurious correlations that hold on average but not in such groups). Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) allows us to learn models that instead minimize the worst-case training loss over a set of pre-defined groups. However, we find that naively applying group DRO to overparameterized neural networks fails: these models can perfectly fit the training data, and any model with vanishing average training loss also already has vanis…
The concepts of risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and robust optimization have developed significantly over the last decade. Statistical learning community has also witnessed a rapid theoretical and applied growth by relying on these concepts. A modeling framework, called distributionally robust optimization (DRO), has recently received significant attention in both the operations research and statistical learning communities. This paper surveys main concepts and contributions to DRO, and its relationships with robust optimization, risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, …
Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学海因茨信息系统与公共政策学院）
We propose a general approach for training survival analysis models that minimizes a worst-case error across all subpopulations that are large enough (occurring with at least a user-specified minimum probability). This approach uses a training loss function that does not know any demographic information to treat as sensitive. Despite this, we demonstrate that our proposed approach often scores better on recently established fairness metrics (without a significant drop in prediction accuracy) compared to various baselines, including ones which directly use sensitive demographic information in t…
Robustness to distributional shift is one of the key challenges of contemporary machine learning. Attaining such robustness is the goal of distributionally robust optimization, which seeks a solution to an optimization problem that is worst-case robust under a specified distributional shift of an uncontrolled covariate. In this paper, we study such a problem when the distributional shift is measured via the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). For the setting of zeroth-order, noisy optimization, we present a novel distributionally robust Bayesian optimization algorithm (DRBO). Our algorithm provabl…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a widely-used approach to learn models that are robust against distribution shift. Compared with the standard optimization setting, the objective function in DRO is more difficult to optimize, and most of the existing theoretical results make strong assumptions on the loss function. In this work we bridge the gap by studying DRO algorithms for general smooth non-convex losses. By carefully exploiting the specific form of the DRO objective, we are able to provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees even though the objective function is possibly no…
Submodular functions have applications throughout machine learning, but in many settings, we do not have direct access to the underlying function $f$. We focus on stochastic functions that are given as an expectation of functions over a distribution $P$. In practice, we often have only a limited set of samples $f_i$ from $P$. The standard approach indirectly optimizes $f$ by maximizing the sum of $f_i$. However, this ignores generalization to the true (unknown) distribution. In this paper, we achieve better performance on the actual underlying function $f$ by directly optimizing a combination …
Calibrating Ambiguity Set via Diagnostic Transport for Distributionally Robust Optimization
Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学海因茨信息系统与公共政策学院）；Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学机器学习系）；Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学统计与数据科学系）
We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Columbia Business School（哥伦比亚大学商学院）
A common goal in statistics and machine learning is to learn models that can perform well against distributional shifts, such as latent heterogeneous subpopulations, unknown covariate shifts, or unmodeled temporal effects. We develop and analyze a distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRO) framework that learns a model providing good performance against perturbations to the data-generating distribution. We give a convex formulation for the problem, providing several convergence guarantees. We prove finite-sample minimax upper and lower bounds, showing that distributional robustness …
Wasserstein distance-based distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has received much attention lately due to its ability to provide a robustness interpretation of various learning models. Moreover, many of the DRO problems that arise in the learning context admits exact convex reformulations and hence can be tackled by off-the-shelf solvers. Nevertheless, the use of such solvers severely limits the applicability of DRO in large-scale learning problems, as they often rely on general purpose interior-point algorithms. On the other hand, there are very few works that attempt to develop fast it…
Data-driven Distributionally Robust Optimization (DD-DRO) via optimal transport has been shown to encompass a wide range of popular machine learning algorithms. The distributional uncertainty size is often shown to correspond to the regularization parameter. The type of regularization (e.g. the norm used to regularize) corresponds to the shape of the distributional uncertainty. We propose a data-driven robust optimization methodology to inform the transportation cost underlying the definition of the distributional uncertainty. We show empirically that this additional layer of robustification, …
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）；TU Delft（代尔夫特理工大学）
We study a distributionally robust mean square error estimation problem over a nonconvex Wasserstein ambiguity set containing only normal distributions. We show that the optimal estimator and the least favorable distribution form a Nash equilibrium. Despite the non-convex nature of the ambiguity set, we prove that the estimation problem is equivalent to a tractable convex program. We further devise a Frank-Wolfe algorithm for this convex program whose direction-searching subproblem can be solved in a quasi-closed form. Using these ingredients, we introduce a distributionally robust Kalman filt…
Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), as the widely employed policy based reinforcement learning (RL) methods, are prone to converge to a sub-optimal solution as they limit the policy representation to a particular parametric distribution class. To address this issue, we develop an innovative Optimistic Distributionally Robust Policy Optimization (ODRPO) algorithm, which effectively utilizes Optimistic Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach to solve the trust region constrained optimization problem without parameterizing the policies. Our …
In many applications in statistics and machine learning, the availability of data samples from multiple possibly heterogeneous sources has become increasingly prevalent. On the other hand, in distributionally robust optimization, we seek data-driven decisions which perform well under the most adverse distribution from a nominal distribution constructed from data samples within a certain discrepancy of probability distributions. However, it remains unclear how to achieve such distributional robustness in model learning and estimation when data samples from multiple sources are available. In thi…
Fairness researchers in machine learning (ML) have coalesced around several fairness criteria which provide formal definitions of what it means for an ML model to be fair. However, these criteria have some serious limitations. We identify four key shortcomings of these formal fairness criteria, and aim to help to address them by extending performative prediction to include a distributionally robust objective.
University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）
We present a distributionally robust formulation of a stochastic optimization problem for non-i.i.d vector autoregressive data. We use the Wasserstein distance to define robustness in the space of distributions and we show, using duality theory, that the problem is equivalent to a finite convex-concave saddle point problem. The performance of the method is demonstrated on both synthetic and real data.
Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization estimators are obtained as solutions of min-max problems in which the statistician selects a parameter minimizing the worst-case loss among all probability models within a certain distance (in a Wasserstein sense) from the underlying empirical measure. While motivated by the need to identify optimal model parameters or decision choices that are robust to model misspecification, these distributionally robust estimators recover a wide range of regularized estimators, including square-root lasso and support vector machines, among others, as particu…
