Robustness to distributional shift is one of the key challenges of contemporary machine learning. Attaining such robustness is the goal of distributionally robust optimization, which seeks a solution to an optimization problem that is worst-case robust under a specified distributional shift of an uncontrolled covariate. In this paper, we study such a problem when the distributional shift is measured via the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). For the setting of zeroth-order, noisy optimization, we present a novel distributionally robust Bayesian optimization algorithm (DRBO). Our algorithm provably obtains sub-linear robust regret in various settings that differ in how the uncertain covariate is observed. We demonstrate the robust performance of our method on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks.
Bayesian quadrature optimization (BQO) maximizes the expectation of an expensive black-box integrand taken over a known probability distribution. In this work, we study BQO under distributional uncertainty in which the underlying probability distribution is unknown except for a limited set of its i.i.d. samples. A standard BQO approach maximizes the Monte Carlo estimate of the true expected objective given the fixed sample set. Though Monte Carlo estimate is unbiased, it has high variance given a small set of samples; thus can result in a spurious objective function. We adopt the distributiona…
Nagoya Institute of Technology（名古屋工业大学）；RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project（理化学研究所先进智能项目中心）
In black-box function optimization, we need to consider not only controllable design variables but also uncontrollable stochastic environment variables. In such cases, it is necessary to solve the optimization problem by taking into account the uncertainty of the environmental variables. Chance-constrained (CC) problem, the problem of maximizing the expected value under a certain level of constraint satisfaction probability, is one of the practically important problems in the presence of environmental variables. In this study, we consider distributionally robust CC (DRCC) problem and propose a…
We propose a novel, theoretically-grounded, acquisition function for Batch Bayesian optimization informed by insights from distributionally ambiguous optimization. Our acquisition function is a lower bound on the well-known Expected Improvement function, which requires evaluation of a Gaussian Expectation over a multivariate piecewise affine function. Our bound is computed instead by evaluating the best-case expectation over all probability distributions consistent with the same mean and variance as the original Gaussian distribution. Unlike alternative approaches, including Expected Improveme…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Columbia Business School（哥伦比亚大学商学院）
A common goal in statistics and machine learning is to learn models that can perform well against distributional shifts, such as latent heterogeneous subpopulations, unknown covariate shifts, or unmodeled temporal effects. We develop and analyze a distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRO) framework that learns a model providing good performance against perturbations to the data-generating distribution. We give a convex formulation for the problem, providing several convergence guarantees. We prove finite-sample minimax upper and lower bounds, showing that distributional robustness …
Institute of Data Science, National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学数据科学研究院）；Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学工业系统工程与管理系）
We propose a distributionally robust logistic regression model with an unfairness penalty that prevents discrimination with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender or ethnicity. This model is equivalent to a tractable convex optimization problem if a Wasserstein ball centered at the empirical distribution on the training data is used to model distributional uncertainty and if a new convex unfairness measure is used to incentivize equalized opportunities. We demonstrate that the resulting classifier improves fairness at a marginal loss of predictive accuracy on both synthetic and real da…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has attracted attention in machine learning due to its connections to regularization, generalization, and robustness. Existing work has considered uncertainty sets based on phi-divergences and Wasserstein distances, each of which have drawbacks. In this paper, we study DRO with uncertainty sets measured via maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). We show that MMD DRO is roughly equivalent to regularization by the Hilbert norm and, as a byproduct, reveal deep connections to classic results in statistical learning. In particular, we obtain an alternative proof …
We propose a novel data-driven method to learn a mixture of multiple kernels with random features that is certifiabaly robust against adverserial inputs. Specifically, we consider a distributionally robust optimization of the kernel-target alignment with respect to the distribution of training samples over a distributional ball defined by the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The distributionally robust optimization problem can be recast as a min-max optimization whose objective function includes a log-sum term. We develop a mini-batch biased stochastic primal-dual proximal method to solve the…
The concepts of risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and robust optimization have developed significantly over the last decade. Statistical learning community has also witnessed a rapid theoretical and applied growth by relying on these concepts. A modeling framework, called distributionally robust optimization (DRO), has recently received significant attention in both the operations research and statistical learning communities. This paper surveys main concepts and contributions to DRO, and its relationships with robust optimization, risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, …
In many applications in statistics and machine learning, the availability of data samples from multiple possibly heterogeneous sources has become increasingly prevalent. On the other hand, in distributionally robust optimization, we seek data-driven decisions which perform well under the most adverse distribution from a nominal distribution constructed from data samples within a certain discrepancy of probability distributions. However, it remains unclear how to achieve such distributional robustness in model learning and estimation when data samples from multiple sources are available. In thi…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
We introduce a distributionally robust minimium mean square error estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to recover an unknown signal from a noisy observation. The proposed model can be viewed as a zero-sum game between a statistician choosing an estimator -- that is, a measurable function of the observation -- and a fictitious adversary choosing a prior -- that is, a pair of signal and noise distributions ranging over independent Wasserstein balls -- with the goal to minimize and maximize the expected squared estimation error, respectively. We show that if the Wasserstein balls are…
Decentralized learning algorithms empower interconnected devices to share data and computational resources to collaboratively train a machine learning model without the aid of a central coordinator. In the case of heterogeneous data distributions at the network nodes, collaboration can yield predictors with unsatisfactory performance for a subset of the devices. For this reason, in this work, we consider the formulation of a distributionally robust decentralized learning task and we propose a decentralized single loop gradient descent/ascent algorithm (AD-GDA) to directly solve the underlying …
This monograph develops a comprehensive statistical learning framework that is robust to (distributional) perturbations in the data using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) under the Wasserstein metric. Beginning with fundamental properties of the Wasserstein metric and the DRO formulation, we explore duality to arrive at tractable formulations and develop finite-sample, as well as asymptotic, performance guarantees. We consider a series of learning problems, including (i) distributionally robust linear regression; (ii) distributionally robust regression with group structure in the pre…
Yale University（耶鲁大学）；Wyze Labs Inc.（Wyze实验室公司）；The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
To train machine learning models that are robust to distribution shifts in the data, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been proven very effective. However, the existing approaches to learning a distributionally robust model either require solving complex optimization problems such as semidefinite programming or a first-order method whose convergence scales linearly with the number of data samples -- which hinders their scalability to large datasets. In this paper, we show how different variants of DRO are simply instances of a finite-sum composite optimization for which we provide…
IBM Research AI（IBM研究院人工智能部门）；Thomas J. Watson Research Center（托马斯·J·沃森研究中心）
Seeking to improve model generalization, we consider a new approach based on distributionally robust learning (DRL) that applies stochastic gradient descent to the outer minimization problem. Our algorithm efficiently estimates the gradient of the inner maximization problem through multi-level Monte Carlo randomization. Leveraging theoretical results that shed light on why standard gradient estimators fail, we establish the optimal parameterization of the gradient estimators of our approach that balances a fundamental tradeoff between computation time and statistical variance. Numerical experi…
Approximate dynamic programming is a popular method for solving large Markov decision processes. This paper describes a new class of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods- distributionally robust ADP-that address the curse of dimensionality by minimizing a pessimistic bound on the policy loss. This approach turns ADP into an optimization problem, for which we derive new mathematical program formulations and analyze its properties. DRADP improves on the theoretical guarantees of existing ADP methods-it guarantees convergence and L1 norm based error bounds. The empirical evaluation of DR…
We develop Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) formulations for Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) and Multiclass Logistic Regression (MLG) when both the covariates and responses/labels may be contaminated by outliers. The DRO framework uses a probabilistic ambiguity set defined as a ball of distributions that are close to the empirical distribution of the training set in the sense of the Wasserstein metric. We relax the DRO formulation into a regularized learning problem whose regularizer is a norm of the coefficient matrix. We establish out-of-sample performance guarantees for the s…
Criteo AI Labs（Criteo人工智能实验室）；LTCI, Telecom ParisTech（巴黎高等电信学院LTCI实验室）；LPSM, Université Paris 6（巴黎第六大学LPSM实验室）
This manuscript introduces the idea of using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) for the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) problem. Tapping into a rich existing literature, we show that DRO is a principled tool for counterfactual decision making. We also show that well-established solutions to the CRM problem like sample variance penalization schemes are special instances of a more general DRO problem. In this unifying framework, a variety of distributionally robust counterfactual risk estimators can be constructed using various probability distances and divergences as uncertainty …
Domain Adaptation (DA) has recently received significant attention due to its potential to adapt a learning model across source and target domains with mismatched distributions. Since DA methods rely exclusively on the given source and target domain samples, they generally yield models that are vulnerable to noise and unable to adapt to unseen samples from the target domain, which calls for DA methods that guarantee the robustness and generalization of the learned models. In this paper, we propose DRDA, a distributionally robust domain adaptation method. DRDA leverages a distributionally robus…
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）；TU Delft（代尔夫特理工大学）
We study a distributionally robust mean square error estimation problem over a nonconvex Wasserstein ambiguity set containing only normal distributions. We show that the optimal estimator and the least favorable distribution form a Nash equilibrium. Despite the non-convex nature of the ambiguity set, we prove that the estimation problem is equivalent to a tractable convex program. We further devise a Frank-Wolfe algorithm for this convex program whose direction-searching subproblem can be solved in a quasi-closed form. Using these ingredients, we introduce a distributionally robust Kalman filt…
Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), as the widely employed policy based reinforcement learning (RL) methods, are prone to converge to a sub-optimal solution as they limit the policy representation to a particular parametric distribution class. To address this issue, we develop an innovative Optimistic Distributionally Robust Policy Optimization (ODRPO) algorithm, which effectively utilizes Optimistic Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach to solve the trust region constrained optimization problem without parameterizing the policies. Our …
School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院工业与系统工程学院）；Department of Information, Risk, and Operations Management, University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校信息、风险与运营管理系）
Data-driven Distributionally Robust Optimization (DD-DRO) via optimal transport has been shown to encompass a wide range of popular machine learning algorithms. The distributional uncertainty size is often shown to correspond to the regularization parameter. The type of regularization (e.g. the norm used to regularize) corresponds to the shape of the distributional uncertainty. We propose a data-driven robust optimization methodology to inform the transportation cost underlying the definition of the distributional uncertainty. We show empirically that this additional layer of robustification, …
Fairness researchers in machine learning (ML) have coalesced around several fairness criteria which provide formal definitions of what it means for an ML model to be fair. However, these criteria have some serious limitations. We identify four key shortcomings of these formal fairness criteria, and aim to help to address them by extending performative prediction to include a distributionally robust objective.
University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）
We present a distributionally robust formulation of a stochastic optimization problem for non-i.i.d vector autoregressive data. We use the Wasserstein distance to define robustness in the space of distributions and we show, using duality theory, that the problem is equivalent to a finite convex-concave saddle point problem. The performance of the method is demonstrated on both synthetic and real data.
Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization estimators are obtained as solutions of min-max problems in which the statistician selects a parameter minimizing the worst-case loss among all probability models within a certain distance (in a Wasserstein sense) from the underlying empirical measure. While motivated by the need to identify optimal model parameters or decision choices that are robust to model misspecification, these distributionally robust estimators recover a wide range of regularized estimators, including square-root lasso and support vector machines, among others, as particu…
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；New York University（纽约大学）；Arena Technologies（Arena Technologies公司）
College of Engineering, Cornell University（康奈尔大学工程学院）
This paper presents a novel deep learning based data-driven optimization method. A novel generative adversarial network (GAN) based data-driven distributionally robust chance constrained programming framework is proposed. GAN is applied to fully extract distributional information from historical data in a nonparametric and unsupervised way without a priori approximation or assumption. Since GAN utilizes deep neural networks, complicated data distributions and modes can be learned, and it can model uncertainty efficiently and accurately. Distributionally robust chance constrained programming ta…
Recently, (Blanchet, Kang, and Murhy 2016, and Blanchet, and Kang 2017) showed that several machine learning algorithms, such as square-root Lasso, Support Vector Machines, and regularized logistic regression, among many others, can be represented exactly as distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems. The distributional uncertainty is defined as a neighborhood centered at the empirical distribution. We propose a methodology which learns such neighborhood in a natural data-driven way. We show rigorously that our framework encompasses adaptive regularization as a particular case. Moreov…
We propose an end-to-end distributionally robust system for portfolio construction that integrates the asset return prediction model with a distributionally robust portfolio optimization model. We also show how to learn the risk-tolerance parameter and the degree of robustness directly from data. End-to-end systems have an advantage in that information can be communicated between the prediction and decision layers during training, allowing the parameters to be trained for the final task rather than solely for predictive performance. However, existing end-to-end systems are not able to quantify…
We consider machine learning, particularly regression, using locally-differentially private datasets. The Wasserstein distance is used to define an ambiguity set centered at the empirical distribution of the dataset corrupted by local differential privacy noise. The ambiguity set is shown to contain the probability distribution of unperturbed, clean data. The radius of the ambiguity set is a function of the privacy budget, spread of the data, and the size of the problem. Hence, machine learning with locally-differentially private datasets can be rewritten as a distributionally-robust optimizat…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；University of Cyprus（塞浦路斯大学）
We consider the parameter estimation problem of a probabilistic generative model prescribed using a natural exponential family of distributions. For this problem, the typical maximum likelihood estimator usually overfits under limited training sample size, is sensitive to noise and may perform poorly on downstream predictive tasks. To mitigate these issues, we propose a distributionally robust maximum likelihood estimator that minimizes the worst-case expected log-loss uniformly over a parametric Kullback-Leibler ball around a parametric nominal distribution. Leveraging the analytical expressi…
This paper proposes a distributionally robust approach to logistic regression. We use the Wasserstein distance to construct a ball in the space of probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples. If the radius of this ball is chosen judiciously, we can guarantee that it contains the unknown data-generating distribution with high confidence. We then formulate a distributionally robust logistic regression model that minimizes a worst-case expected logloss function, where the worst case is taken over all distributions in the Wasserstein ball. We prove that t…
We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through…
CSIRO’s Data61（澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织数据61中心）；University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）
We use distributionally-robust optimization for machine learning to mitigate the effect of data poisoning attacks. We provide performance guarantees for the trained model on the original data (not including the poison records) by training the model for the worst-case distribution on a neighbourhood around the empirical distribution (extracted from the training dataset corrupted by a poisoning attack) defined using the Wasserstein distance. We relax the distributionally-robust machine learning problem by finding an upper bound for the worst-case fitness based on the empirical sampled-averaged f…
