This work is devoted to the development of a distributionally robust active fault diagnosis approach for a class of nonlinear systems, which takes into account any ambiguity in distribution information of the uncertain model parameters. More specifically, a new approach is presented using the total variation distance metric as an information constraint, and as a measure for the separation of multiple models based on the similarity of their output probability density functions. A practical aspect of the proposed approach is that different levels of ambiguity may be assigned to the models pertaining to the different fault scenarios. The main feature of the proposed solution is that it is expressed in terms of distribution's first and second moments, and hence, can be applied to alternative distributions other than normal. In addition, necessary and sufficient conditions of optimality are derived, and an offline active fault diagnosis procedure is provided to exemplify the implementation of the proposed scheme. The effectiveness of the proposed distributionally robust approach is demonstrated through an application to a three-tank benchmark system under multiple fault scenarios.
This paper considers structural optimization under a reliability constraint, where the input distribution is only partially known. Specifically, when we only know that the expected value vector and the variance-covariance matrix of the input distribution belong to a given convex set, we require that, for any realization of the input distribution, the failure probability of a structure should be no greater than a specified target value. We show that this distributionally-robust reliability constraint can be reduced equivalently to deterministic constraints. By using this reduction, we can treat…
Healthcare systems are facing serious challenges in balancing their human resources to cope with volatile service demand, while at the same time providing necessary job satisfaction to the healthcare workers. We propose in this paper a distributionally robust optimization formulation to generate a task assignment plan that promotes the fairness in allocation, attained by reducing the difference in the total working time among workers, under uncertain service time. The proposed joint chance constraint model is conservatively approximated by a worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk, and we devise …
The deepening penetration of renewable resources into power systems entails great difficulties that have not been surmounted satisfactorily. An issue that merits special attention is the short-term planning of power systems under net load uncertainty. To this end, we work out a distributionally robust unit commitment methodology that expressly assesses the uncertainty associated with net load. The principal strength of the proposed methodology lies in its ability to represent the probabilistic nature of net load without having to set forth its probability distribution. This strength is brought…
Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we utilize the right-hand si…
Severe geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) increase the magnitude of the electric field on the Earth's surface (E-field) and drive geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) along the transmission lines in electric grids. These additional currents can pose severe risks, such as current distortions, transformer saturation and increased reactive power losses, each of which can lead to system unreliability. Several mitigation actions (e.g., changing grid topology) exist that can reduce the harmful GIC effects on the grids. Making such decisions can be challenging, however, because the magnitude and dire…
This paper investigates a Multistage Distributionally Robust Optimization (MDRO) approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty. The MDRO is formed by creating sets of conditional distributions (called conditional ambiguity sets) on a finite scenario tree. The distributions in the conditional ambiguity sets remain close to a nominal conditional distribution according a $ϕ$-divergence (e.g., Kullback-Liebler divergence, Hellinger distance, Burg entropy, etc.). The paper discusses a decomposition algorithm to solve the resulting MDRO and applies the modeling and solution techniques to al…
This paper studies the expected optimal value of a mixed 0-1 programming problem with uncertain objective coefficients following a joint distribution. We assume that the true distribution is not known exactly, but a set of independent samples can be observed. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct an ambiguity set centered at the empirical distribution from the observed samples and containing the true distribution with a high statistical guarantee. The problem of interest is to investigate the bound on the expected optimal value over the Wasserstein ambiguity set. Under standard assumption…
We present a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach for the transmission expansion planning problem, considering both long- and short-term uncertainties on the system demand and non-dispatchable renewable generation. On the long-term level, as is customary in industry applications, we address the deep uncertainties arising from social and economic transformations, political and environmental issues, and technology disruptions by using long-term scenarios devised by experts. In this setting, many exogenous long-term scenarios containing partial information about the random paramete…
Markov decision process (MDP) is a decision making framework where a decision maker is interested in maximizing the expected discounted value of a stream of rewards received at future stages at various states which are visited according to a controlled Markov chain. Many algorithms including linear programming methods are available in the literature to compute an optimal policy when the rewards and transition probabilities are deterministic. In this paper, we consider an MDP problem where the transition probabilities are known and the reward vector is a random vector whose distribution is part…
In a recent paper, Nguyen, Kuhn, and Esfahani (2018) built a distributionally robust estimator for the precision matrix of the Gaussian distribution. The distributional uncertainty size is a key ingredient in the construction of this estimator. We develop a statistical theory which shows how to optimally choose the uncertainty size to minimize the associated Stein loss. Surprisingly, rather than the expected canonical square-root scaling rate, the optimal uncertainty size scales linearly with the sample size.
To ensure a successful bid while maximizing of profits, generation companies (GENCOs) need a self-scheduling strategy that can cope with a variety of scenarios. So distributionally robust opti-mization (DRO) is a good choice because that it can provide an adjustable self-scheduling strategy for GENCOs in the uncertain environment, which can well balance robustness and economics compared to strategies derived from robust optimization (RO) and stochastic programming (SO). In this paper, a novel mo-ment-based DRO model with conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is proposed to solve the self-scheduling…
We study two-stage stochastic optimization problems with random recourse, where the adaptive decisions are multiplied with the uncertain parameters in both the objective function and the constraints. To mitigate the computational intractability of infinite-dimensional optimization, we propose a scalable approximation scheme via piecewise linear and piecewise quadratic decision rules. We then develop a data-driven distributionally robust framework with two layers of robustness to address distributionally uncertainty. The emerging optimization problem can be reformulated as an exact copositive p…
In this paper, we consider a network capacity expansion problem in the context of telecommunication networks, where there is uncertainty associated with the expected traffic demand. We employ a distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRSO) framework where the ambiguity set of the uncertain demand distribution is constructed using the moments information, the mean and variance. The resulting DRSO problem is formulated as a bilevel optimization problem. We develop an efficient solution algorithm for this problem by characterizing the resulting worst-case two-point distribution, which al…
We study a methodology to tackle the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge, a model calibration problem under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Our methodology is based on an integration of robust optimization, more specifically a recent line of research known as distributionally robust optimization, and importance sampling in Monte Carlo simulation. The main computation machinery in this integrated methodology amounts to solving sampled linear programs. We present theoretical statistical guarantees of our approach via connections to nonparametric hypothesis testing, and n…
Inspired by its success for their continuous counterparts, the standard approach to deal with mixed-integer recourse (MIR) models under distributional uncertainty is to use distributionally robust optimization (DRO). We argue, however, that this modeling choice is not always justified, since DRO techniques are generally computationally extremely challenging when integer decision variables are involved. That is why we propose a fundamentally different approach for MIR models under distributional uncertainty aimed at obtaining models with improved computational tractability. For the special case…
This paper is devoted to reduce the conservatism of distributionally robust optimization with moments information. Since the optimal solution of distributionally robust optimization is required to be feasible for all uncertain distributions in a given ambiguity distribution set and so the conservatism of the optimal solution is inevitable. To address this issue, we introduce the globalized distributionally robust counterpart (GDRC) which allows constraint violations controlled by functional distance of the true distribution to the inner uncertainty distribution set. We obtain the deterministic…
We formulate pure characteristics demand models under uncertainties of probability distributions as distributionally robust mathematical programs with stochastic complementarity constraints (DRMP-SCC). For any fixed first-stage variable and a random realization, the second-stage problem of DRMP-SCC is a monotone linear complementarity problem (LCP). To deal with uncertainties of probability distributions of the involved random variables in the stochastic LCP, we use the distributionally robust approach. Moreover, we propose an approximation problem with regularization and discretization to sol…
Chance constrained optimal power flow (OPF) has been recognized as a promising framework to manage the risk from variable renewable energy (VRE). In presence of VRE uncertainties, this paper discusses a distributionally robust chance constrained approximate AC-OPF. The power flow model employed in the proposed OPF formulation combines an exact AC power flow model at the nominal operation point and an approximate linear power flow model to reflect the system response under uncertainties. The ambiguity set employed in the distributionally robust formulation is the Wasserstein ball centered at th…
In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust resource planning model inspired by a real-world service industry problem. In this problem, there is a mixture of known demand and uncertain future demand. Prior to having full knowledge of the demand, we must decide upon how many jobs we plan to complete on each day in the planning horizon. Any jobs that are not completed by the end of their due date incur a cost and become due the following day. We present two distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) models for this problem. The first is a non-parametric model with a phi-divergence based…
We present a novel data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control formulation for unknown discrete-time linear time-invariant systems affected by unknown and possibly unbounded additive uncertainties. We use off-line collected data and an approximate model of the dynamics to formulate a finite-horizon optimization problem. To account for both the uncertainty related to the dynamics and the disturbance acting on the system, we resort to a distributionally robust formulation that optimizes the cost expectation while satisfying Conditional Value-at-Risk constraints with respect to t…
Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources complicate operations of electric power distribution systems by amplifying volatility of nodal power injections. On the other hand, these resources can provide additional control means to the distribution system operator (DSO). This paper takes the DSO perspective and leverages a data-driven distributionally robust decision-making framework to overcome the uncertainty of these injections and its impact on the distribution system operations. We develop an AC OPF formulation for radial distribution systems based on the LinDistFlow AC power f…
We consider exact deterministic mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations of distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) with random right-hand sides over Wasserstein ambiguity sets. The existing MIP formulations are known to have weak continuous relaxation bounds, and, consequently, for hard instances with small radius, or with large problem sizes, the branch-and-bound based solution processes suffer from large optimality gaps even after hours of computation time. This significantly hinders the practical application of the DR-CCP paradigm. Motivated by these challenges, …
In this paper, we develop an exact reformulation and a deterministic approximation for distributionally robust joint chance-constrained programmings (DRCCPs) with a general class of convex uncertain constraints under data-driven Wasserstein ambiguity sets. It is known that robust chance constraints can be conservatively approximated by worst-case conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints. It is shown that the proposed worst-case CVaR approximation model can be reformulated as an optimization problem involving biconvex constraints for joint DRCCP. We then derive a convex relaxation of this a…
Optimal transport has recently proved to be a useful tool in various machine learning applications needing comparisons of probability measures. Among these, applications of distributionally robust optimization naturally involve Wasserstein distances in their models of uncertainty, capturing data shifts or worst-case scenarios. Inspired by the success of the regularization of Wasserstein distances in optimal transport, we study in this paper the regularization of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization. First, we derive a general strong duality result of regularized Wasserstein distrib…
Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) over Wasserstein ambiguity sets exhibit attractive out-of-sample performance and admit big-$M$-based mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations with conic constraints. However, the resulting formulations often suffer from scalability issues as sample size increases. To address this shortcoming, we derive stronger formulations that scale well with respect to the sample size. Our focus is on ambiguity sets under the so-called left-hand side (LHS) uncertainty, where the uncertain parameters affect the coefficients of the decision va…
We study the nurse staffing problem under random nurse demand and absenteeism. While the demand uncertainty is exogenous (stemming from the random patient census), the absenteeism uncertainty is \emph{endogenous}, i.e., the number of nurses who show up for work partially depends on the nurse staffing level. For quality of care, many hospitals have developed float pools, i.e., groups of hospital units, and trained nurses to be able to work in multiple units (termed cross-training) in response to potential nurse shortage. In this paper, we propose a distributionally robust nurse staffing (DRNS) …
Chance constrained optimal power flow (CC-OPF) formulations have been proposed to minimize operational costs while controlling the risk arising from uncertainties like renewable generation and load consumption. To solve CC-OPF, we often need access to the (true) joint probability distribution of all uncertainties, which is rarely known in practice. A solution based on a biased estimate of the distribution can result in poor reliability. To overcome this challenge, recent work has explored distributionally robust chance constraints, in which the chance constraints are satisfied over a family of…
This paper studies a distributionally robust chance constrained program (DRCCP) with Wasserstein ambiguity set, where the uncertain constraints should be satisfied with a probability at least a given threshold for all the probability distributions of the uncertain parameters within a chosen Wasserstein distance from an empirical distribution. In this work, we investigate equivalent reformulations and approximations of such problems. We first show that a DRCCP can be reformulated as a conditional value-at-risk constrained optimization problem, and thus admits tight inner and outer approximation…
In distributionally robust optimization the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters is itself uncertain, and a fictitious adversary, e.g., nature, chooses the worst distribution from within a known ambiguity set. A common shortcoming of most existing distributionally robust optimization models is that their ambiguity sets contain pathological discrete distribution that give nature too much freedom to inflict damage. We thus introduce a new class of ambiguity sets that contain only distributions with sum-of-squares polynomial density functions of known degrees. We show that…
In this paper we wish to tackle stochastic programs affected by ambiguity about the probability law that governs their uncertain parameters. Using optimal transport theory, we construct an ambiguity set that exploits the knowledge about the distribution of the uncertain parameters, which is provided by: (1) sample data and (2) a-priori information on the order among the probabilities that the true data-generating distribution assigns to some regions of its support set. This type of order is enforced by means of order cone constraints and can encode a wide range of information on the shape of t…
Topology design is a critical task for the reliability, economic operation, and resilience of distribution systems. This paper proposes a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model for designing the topology of a new distribution system facing random contingencies (e.g., imposed by natural disasters). The proposed DRO model optimally configures the network topology and integrates distributed generation to effectively meet the loads. Moreover, we take into account the uncertainty of contingency. Using the moment information of distribution line failures, we construct an ambiguity set of t…
To manage renewable generation and load consumption uncertainty, chance-constrained optimal power flow (OPF) formulations and various solution methodologies have been proposed. However, conventional solution approaches often rely on accurate estimates of uncertainty distributions, which may not exist. When the distributions are not known but can be limited to a set of plausible distributions, termed an ambiguity set, distributionally robust (DR) optimization can be used to ensure that chance constraints hold for all distributions in that set. However, DR OPF yields conservative solutions if th…
Distributionally Robust Optimization for Sequential Decision Making
Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院商学院）；Neuri Pte Ltd（Neuri私人有限公司）；Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学工业系统工程与管理系）
We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based am…
Contextual Robotics Institute（情境机器人研究所）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）
This paper considers enforcing safety and stability of dynamical systems in the presence of model uncertainty. Safety and stability constraints may be specified using a control barrier function (CBF) and a control Lyapunov function (CLF), respectively. To take model uncertainty into account, robust and chance formulations of the constraints are commonly considered. However, this requires known error bounds or a known distribution for the model uncertainty, and the resulting formulations may suffer from over-conservatism or over-confidence. In this paper, we assume that only a finite set of mod…
We study multistage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) to hedge against ambiguity in quantifying the underlying uncertainty of a problem. Recognizing that not all the realizations and scenario paths might have an "effect" on the optimal value, we investigate the question of how to define and identify critical scenarios for nested multistage DRO problems. Our analysis extends the work of Rahimian, Bayraksan, and Homem-de-Mello [Math. Program. 173(1--2): 393--430, 2019], which was in the context of a static/two-stage setting, to the multistage setting. To this end, we define the notions …
Increasing integration of renewable generation poses significant challenges to ensure robustness guarantees in real-time energy system decision-making. This work aims to develop a robust optimal transmission switching (OTS) framework that can effectively relieve grid congestion and mitigate renewable curtailment. We formulate a two-stage distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) problem that assures limited constraint violations for any uncertainty distribution within an ambiguity set. Here, the second-stage recourse variables are represented as linear functions of uncertainty, yieldin…
University of Connecticut（康涅狄格大学）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
As electric vehicle (EV) technologies become mature, EV has been rapidly adopted in modern transportation systems, and is expected to provide future autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMoD) service with economic and societal benefits. However, EVs require frequent recharges due to their limited and unpredictable cruising ranges, and they have to be managed efficiently given the dynamic charging process. It is urgent and challenging to investigate a computationally efficient algorithm that provide EV AMoD system performance guarantees under model uncertainties, instead of using heuristic demand or …
