This paper develops methods for proving Lyapunov stability of dynamical systems subject to disturbances with an unknown distribution. We assume only a finite set of disturbance samples is available and that the true online disturbance realization may be drawn from a different distribution than the given samples. We formulate an optimization problem to search for a sum-of-squares (SOS) Lyapunov function and introduce a distributionally robust version of the Lyapunov function derivative constraint. We show that this constraint may be reformulated as several SOS constraints, ensuring that the search for a Lyapunov function remains in the class of SOS polynomial optimization problems. For general systems, we provide a distributionally robust chance-constrained formulation for neural network Lyapunov function search. Simulations demonstrate the validity and efficiency of either formulation on non-linear uncertain dynamical systems.
Contextual Robotics Institute（情境机器人研究所）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）
This paper considers enforcing safety and stability of dynamical systems in the presence of model uncertainty. Safety and stability constraints may be specified using a control barrier function (CBF) and a control Lyapunov function (CLF), respectively. To take model uncertainty into account, robust and chance formulations of the constraints are commonly considered. However, this requires known error bounds or a known distribution for the model uncertainty, and the resulting formulations may suffer from over-conservatism or over-confidence. In this paper, we assume that only a finite set of mod…
In a recent paper, Nguyen, Kuhn, and Esfahani (2018) built a distributionally robust estimator for the precision matrix of the Gaussian distribution. The distributional uncertainty size is a key ingredient in the construction of this estimator. We develop a statistical theory which shows how to optimally choose the uncertainty size to minimize the associated Stein loss. Surprisingly, rather than the expected canonical square-root scaling rate, the optimal uncertainty size scales linearly with the sample size.
This paper considers structural optimization under a reliability constraint, where the input distribution is only partially known. Specifically, when we only know that the expected value vector and the variance-covariance matrix of the input distribution belong to a given convex set, we require that, for any realization of the input distribution, the failure probability of a structure should be no greater than a specified target value. We show that this distributionally-robust reliability constraint can be reduced equivalently to deterministic constraints. By using this reduction, we can treat…
We study a methodology to tackle the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge, a model calibration problem under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Our methodology is based on an integration of robust optimization, more specifically a recent line of research known as distributionally robust optimization, and importance sampling in Monte Carlo simulation. The main computation machinery in this integrated methodology amounts to solving sampled linear programs. We present theoretical statistical guarantees of our approach via connections to nonparametric hypothesis testing, and n…
The deepening penetration of renewable resources into power systems entails great difficulties that have not been surmounted satisfactorily. An issue that merits special attention is the short-term planning of power systems under net load uncertainty. To this end, we work out a distributionally robust unit commitment methodology that expressly assesses the uncertainty associated with net load. The principal strength of the proposed methodology lies in its ability to represent the probabilistic nature of net load without having to set forth its probability distribution. This strength is brought…
Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we utilize the right-hand si…
This paper investigates a Multistage Distributionally Robust Optimization (MDRO) approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty. The MDRO is formed by creating sets of conditional distributions (called conditional ambiguity sets) on a finite scenario tree. The distributions in the conditional ambiguity sets remain close to a nominal conditional distribution according a $ϕ$-divergence (e.g., Kullback-Liebler divergence, Hellinger distance, Burg entropy, etc.). The paper discusses a decomposition algorithm to solve the resulting MDRO and applies the modeling and solution techniques to al…
Markov decision process (MDP) is a decision making framework where a decision maker is interested in maximizing the expected discounted value of a stream of rewards received at future stages at various states which are visited according to a controlled Markov chain. Many algorithms including linear programming methods are available in the literature to compute an optimal policy when the rewards and transition probabilities are deterministic. In this paper, we consider an MDP problem where the transition probabilities are known and the reward vector is a random vector whose distribution is part…
The goal of this paper is to develop methodology for the systematic analysis of asymptotic statistical properties of data driven DRO formulations based on their corresponding non-DRO counterparts. We illustrate our approach in various settings, including both phi-divergence and Wasserstein uncertainty sets. Different types of asymptotic behaviors are obtained depending on the rate at which the uncertainty radius decreases to zero as a function of the sample size and the geometry of the uncertainty sets.
Inspired by its success for their continuous counterparts, the standard approach to deal with mixed-integer recourse (MIR) models under distributional uncertainty is to use distributionally robust optimization (DRO). We argue, however, that this modeling choice is not always justified, since DRO techniques are generally computationally extremely challenging when integer decision variables are involved. That is why we propose a fundamentally different approach for MIR models under distributional uncertainty aimed at obtaining models with improved computational tractability. For the special case…
To ensure a successful bid while maximizing of profits, generation companies (GENCOs) need a self-scheduling strategy that can cope with a variety of scenarios. So distributionally robust opti-mization (DRO) is a good choice because that it can provide an adjustable self-scheduling strategy for GENCOs in the uncertain environment, which can well balance robustness and economics compared to strategies derived from robust optimization (RO) and stochastic programming (SO). In this paper, a novel mo-ment-based DRO model with conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is proposed to solve the self-scheduling…
We consider exact deterministic mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations of distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) with random right-hand sides over Wasserstein ambiguity sets. The existing MIP formulations are known to have weak continuous relaxation bounds, and, consequently, for hard instances with small radius, or with large problem sizes, the branch-and-bound based solution processes suffer from large optimality gaps even after hours of computation time. This significantly hinders the practical application of the DR-CCP paradigm. Motivated by these challenges, …
We present a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach for the transmission expansion planning problem, considering both long- and short-term uncertainties on the system demand and non-dispatchable renewable generation. On the long-term level, as is customary in industry applications, we address the deep uncertainties arising from social and economic transformations, political and environmental issues, and technology disruptions by using long-term scenarios devised by experts. In this setting, many exogenous long-term scenarios containing partial information about the random paramete…
This paper considers a security constrained dispatch problem involving generation and line contingencies in the presence of the renewable generation. The uncertainty due to renewables is modeled using joint chance-constraint and the mismatch caused by contingencies and renewables are handled using reserves. We consider a distributionally robust approach to solve the chance-constrained program. We assume that samples of the uncertainty are available. Using them, we construct a set of distributions, termed ambiguity set, containing all distributions that are close to the empirical distribution u…
Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources complicate operations of electric power distribution systems by amplifying volatility of nodal power injections. On the other hand, these resources can provide additional control means to the distribution system operator (DSO). This paper takes the DSO perspective and leverages a data-driven distributionally robust decision-making framework to overcome the uncertainty of these injections and its impact on the distribution system operations. We develop an AC OPF formulation for radial distribution systems based on the LinDistFlow AC power f…
Optimal transport has recently proved to be a useful tool in various machine learning applications needing comparisons of probability measures. Among these, applications of distributionally robust optimization naturally involve Wasserstein distances in their models of uncertainty, capturing data shifts or worst-case scenarios. Inspired by the success of the regularization of Wasserstein distances in optimal transport, we study in this paper the regularization of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization. First, we derive a general strong duality result of regularized Wasserstein distrib…
In this paper, we consider a network capacity expansion problem in the context of telecommunication networks, where there is uncertainty associated with the expected traffic demand. We employ a distributionally robust stochastic optimization (DRSO) framework where the ambiguity set of the uncertain demand distribution is constructed using the moments information, the mean and variance. The resulting DRSO problem is formulated as a bilevel optimization problem. We develop an efficient solution algorithm for this problem by characterizing the resulting worst-case two-point distribution, which al…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a widely used framework for optimizing objective functionals in the presence of both randomness and model-form uncertainty. A key step in the practical solution of many DRO problems is a tractable reformulation of the optimization over the chosen model ambiguity set, which is generally infinite dimensional. Previous works have solved this problem in the case where the objective functional is an expected value. In this paper we study objective functionals that are the sum of an expected value and a variance penalty term. We prove that the correspond…
To manage renewable generation and load consumption uncertainty, chance-constrained optimal power flow (OPF) formulations and various solution methodologies have been proposed. However, conventional solution approaches often rely on accurate estimates of uncertainty distributions, which may not exist. When the distributions are not known but can be limited to a set of plausible distributions, termed an ambiguity set, distributionally robust (DR) optimization can be used to ensure that chance constraints hold for all distributions in that set. However, DR OPF yields conservative solutions if th…
Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) over Wasserstein ambiguity sets exhibit attractive out-of-sample performance and admit big-$M$-based mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations with conic constraints. However, the resulting formulations often suffer from scalability issues as sample size increases. To address this shortcoming, we derive stronger formulations that scale well with respect to the sample size. Our focus is on ambiguity sets under the so-called left-hand side (LHS) uncertainty, where the uncertain parameters affect the coefficients of the decision va…
Topology design is a critical task for the reliability, economic operation, and resilience of distribution systems. This paper proposes a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model for designing the topology of a new distribution system facing random contingencies (e.g., imposed by natural disasters). The proposed DRO model optimally configures the network topology and integrates distributed generation to effectively meet the loads. Moreover, we take into account the uncertainty of contingency. Using the moment information of distribution line failures, we construct an ambiguity set of t…
The increasing share of renewables in the electricity generation mix comes along with an increasing uncertainty in power supply. In the recent years, distributionally robust optimization has gained significant interest due to its ability to make informed decisions under uncertainty, which are robust to misrepresentations of the distributional information (e.g., from probabilistic forecasts). This is achieved by introducing an ambiguity set that describes the potential deviations from an empirical distribution of all uncertain parameters. However, this set typically overlooks the inherent depen…
We study multistage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) to hedge against ambiguity in quantifying the underlying uncertainty of a problem. Recognizing that not all the realizations and scenario paths might have an "effect" on the optimal value, we investigate the question of how to define and identify critical scenarios for nested multistage DRO problems. Our analysis extends the work of Rahimian, Bayraksan, and Homem-de-Mello [Math. Program. 173(1--2): 393--430, 2019], which was in the context of a static/two-stage setting, to the multistage setting. To this end, we define the notions …
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a worst-case framework for stochastic optimization under uncertainty that has drawn fast-growing studies in recent years. When the underlying probability distribution is unknown and observed from data, DRO suggests to compute the worst-case distribution within a so-called uncertainty set that captures the involved statistical uncertainty. In particular, DRO with uncertainty set constructed as a statistical divergence neighborhood ball has been shown to provide a tool for constructing valid confidence intervals for nonparametric functionals, and bea…
We propose and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization of convex losses with conditional value at risk (CVaR) and $χ^2$ divergence uncertainty sets. We prove that our algorithms require a number of gradient evaluations independent of training set size and number of parameters, making them suitable for large-scale applications. For $χ^2$ uncertainty sets these are the first such guarantees in the literature, and for CVaR our guarantees scale linearly in the uncertainty level rather than quadratically as in previous work. We also provide lower bounds proving the worst-case op…
Intensively studied in theory as a promising data-driven tool for decision-making under ambiguity, two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems over Wasserstein balls are not necessarily easy to solve in practice. This is partly due to large sample size. In this article, we study a generic two-stage distributionally robust linear program (2-DRLP) over a 1-Wasserstein ball using an affine policy. The 2-DRLP has right-hand-side uncertainty with a rectangular support. Our main contribution is to show that the 2-DRLP problem has a tractable reformulation with a scale independent o…
Increasing integration of renewable generation poses significant challenges to ensure robustness guarantees in real-time energy system decision-making. This work aims to develop a robust optimal transmission switching (OTS) framework that can effectively relieve grid congestion and mitigate renewable curtailment. We formulate a two-stage distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) problem that assures limited constraint violations for any uncertainty distribution within an ambiguity set. Here, the second-stage recourse variables are represented as linear functions of uncertainty, yieldin…
This paper studies data-driven distributionally robust bottleneck combinatorial problems (DRBCP) with stochastic costs, where the probability distribution of the cost vector is contained in a ball of distributions centered at the empirical distribution specified by the Wasserstein distance. We study two distinct versions of DRBCP from different applications: (i) Motivated by the multi-hop wireless network application, we first study the uncertainty quantification of DRBCP (denoted by DRBCP-U), where decision-makers would like to have an accurate estimation of the worst-case value of DRBCP. The…
In the optimization under uncertainty, decision-makers first select a wait-and-see policy before any realization of uncertainty and then place a here-and-now decision after the uncertainty has been observed. Two-stage stochastic programming is a popular modeling paradigm for the optimization under uncertainty that the decision-makers first specifies a probability distribution, and then seek the best decisions to jointly optimize the deterministic wait-and-see and expected here-and-now costs. In practice, such a probability distribution may not be fully available but is probably observable thro…
We study decision dependent distributionally robust optimization models, where the ambiguity sets of probability distributions can depend on the decision variables. These models arise in situations with endogenous uncertainty. The developed framework includes two-stage decision dependent distributionally robust stochastic programming as a special case. Decision dependent generalizations of five types of ambiguity sets are considered. These sets are based on bounds on moments, Wasserstein metric, $ϕ$-divergence and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. For the finite support case, we use linear, conic or La…
We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based am…
