利用自适应设计提高经济试验的功效
Improving the Power of Economic Experiments Using Adaptive Designs
摘要：
许多经济实验的一个重要问题是实验者如何确保有足够的力量拒绝一个或多个假设。在这里，我们主要应用在临床试验领域开发的方法，用于在自适应两阶段设计中同时测试多个假设。我们的主要目标是说明如何使用这种方法来提高经济实验的能力。在简要介绍了相关理论之后，我们在开源R软件包asd的支持下进行了模拟研究，以评估一些不同设计的功率。模拟表明，可以提高拒绝至少一个假设的把握度，同时仍然确保对总体第一类错误概率的强有力控制，并且不会增加总样本量，从而不会增加研究成本。衍生的设计进一步说明了将它们应用到两个不同的现实世界的数据集，从实验经济学。
英文摘要：
An important issue for many economic experiments is how the experimenter can ensure sufficient power for rejecting one or more hypotheses. Here, we apply methods developed mainly within the area of clinical trials for testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously in adaptive, two-stage designs. Our main goal is to illustrate how this approach can be used to improve the power of economic experiments. Having briefly introduced the relevant theory, we perform a simulation study supported by the open source R package asd in order to evaluate the power of some different designs. The simulations show that the power to reject at least one hypothesis can be improved while still ensuring strong control of the overall Type I error probability, and without increasing the total sample size and thus the costs of the study. The derived designs are further illustrated by applying them to two different real-world data sets from experimental economics.
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