The panel data regression models have become one of the most widely applied statistical approaches in different fields of research, including social, behavioral, environmental sciences, and econometrics. However, traditional least-squares-based techniques frequently used for panel data models are vulnerable to the adverse effects of the data contamination or outlying observations that may result in biased and inefficient estimates and misleading statistical inference. In this study, we propose a minimum density power divergence estimation procedure for panel data regression models with random effects to achieve robustness against outliers. The robustness, as well as the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, are rigorously established. The finite-sample properties of the proposed method are investigated through an extensive simulation study and an application to climate data in Oman. Our results demonstrate that the proposed estimator exhibits improved performance over some traditional and robust methods in the presence of data contamination.
The panel data regression models have gained increasing attention in different areas of research including but not limited to econometrics, environmental sciences, epidemiology, behavioral and social sciences. However, the presence of outlying observations in panel data may often lead to biased and inefficient estimates of the model parameters resulting in unreliable inferences when the least squares (LS) method is applied. We propose extensions of the M-estimation approach with a data-driven selection of tuning parameters to achieve desirable level of robustness against outliers without loss …
In different fields of applications including, but not limited to, behavioral, environmental, medical sciences and econometrics, the use of panel data regression models has become increasingly popular as a general framework for making meaningful statistical inferences. However, when the ordinary least squares (OLS) method is used to estimate the model parameters, presence of outliers may significantly alter the adequacy of such models by producing biased and inefficient estimates. In this work we propose a new, weighted likelihood based robust estimation procedure for linear panel data models …
The presence of outlying observations may adversely affect statistical testing procedures that result in unstable test statistics and unreliable inferences depending on the distortion in parameter estimates. In spite of the fact that the adverse effects of outliers in panel data models, there are only a few robust testing procedures available for model specification. In this paper, a new weighted likelihood based robust specification test is proposed to determine the appropriate approach in panel data including individual-specific components. The proposed test has been shown to have the same a…
We establish oracle inequalities for a version of the Lasso in high-dimensional fixed effects dynamic panel data models. The inequalities are valid for the coefficients of the dynamic and exogenous regressors. Separate oracle inequalities are derived for the fixed effects. Next, we show how one can conduct uniformly valid simultaneous inference on the parameters of the model and construct a uniformly valid estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix which is robust to conditional heteroskedasticity in the error terms. Allowing for conditional heteroskedasticity is important in dynamic models…
Panel data are modern statistical tools which are commonly used in all kinds of econometric problems under various regularity assumptions. The panel data models with changepoints are introduced together with atomic pursuit methods and they are applied to estimate the underlying option price function. Robust estimates and complex insight into the data are both achieved by adopting the quantile LASSO approach. The final model is produced in a fully data-driven manner in just one single modeling step. In addition, the arbitrage-free scenarios are obtained by introducing a set of well defined line…
We provide various norm-based definitions of different types of cross-sectional dependence and the relations between them. These definitions facilitate to comprehend and to characterize the various forms of cross-sectional dependence, such as strong, semi-strong, and weak dependence. Then we examine the asymptotic properties of parameter estimators both for fixed (within) effect estimator and random effect (pooled) estimator for linear panel data models incorporating various forms of cross-sectional dependence. The asymptotic properties are also derived when both cross-sectional and temporal d…
This paper extends endogenous economic growth models to incorporate knowledge externality. We explores whether spatial knowledge spillovers among regions exist, whether spatial knowledge spillovers promote regional innovative activities, and whether external knowledge spillovers affect the evolution of regional innovations in the long run. We empirically verify the theoretical results through applying spatial statistics and econometric model in the analysis of panel data of 31 regions in China. An accurate estimate of the range of knowledge spillovers is achieved and the convergence of regiona…
In this paper, We propose a new style panel data factor stochastic volatility model with observable factors and unobservable factors based on the multivariate stochastic volatility model, which is mainly composed of three parts, such as the mean equation, volatility equation and factor volatility evolution. The stochastic volatility equation is a 1-step forward prediction process with high dimensional parameters to be estimated. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC) method, the Forward Filtering Backward Sampling (FFBS) algorithm of the stochastic volatility equation is mainly u…
Minimum divergence methods are popular tools in a variety of statistical applications. We consider tubular model adequacy tests, and demonstrate that the new divergences that are generated in the process are very useful in robust statistical inference. In particular we show that the family of $S$-divergences can be alternatively developed using the tubular model adequacy tests; a further application of the paradigm generates a larger superfamily of divergences. We describe the properties of this larger class and its potential applications in robust inference. Along the way, the failure of the …
In many applications, a control procedure is required to detect potential deviations in a panel of serially correlated processes. It is common that the processes are corrupted by noise and that no prior information about the in-control data are available for that purpose. This paper suggests a general nonparametric monitoring scheme for supervising such a panel with time-varying mean and variance. The method is based on a control chart designed by block bootstrap, which does not require parametric assumptions on the distribution of the data. The procedure is tailored to cope with strong noise,…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；University of Utah（犹他大学）
Panel count data describes aggregated counts of recurrent events observed at discrete time points. To understand dynamics of health behaviors, the field of quantitative behavioral research has evolved to increasingly rely upon panel count data collected via multiple self reports, for example, about frequencies of smoking using in-the-moment surveys on mobile devices. However, missing reports are common and present a major barrier to downstream statistical learning. As a first step, under a missing completely at random assumption (MCAR), we propose a simple yet widely applicable functional EM a…
In order to evaluate the impact of a policy intervention on a group of units over time, it is important to correctly estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) measure. Due to lack of robustness of the existing procedures of estimating ATE from panel data, in this paper, we introduce a robust estimator of the ATE and the subsequent inference procedures using the popular approach of minimum density power divergence inference. Asymptotic properties of the proposed ATE estimator are derived and used to construct robust test statistics for testing parametric hypotheses related to the ATE. Besides…
This paper considers the problem of robust hypothesis testing under non-identically distributed data. We propose Wald-type tests for both simple and composite hypothesis for independent but non-homogeneous observations based on the robust minimum density power divergence estimator of the common underlying parameter. Asymptotic and theoretical robustness properties of the proposed tests have been discussed. Application to the problem of testing the general linear hypothesis in a generalized linear model with fixed-design has been considered in detail with specific illustrations for its special …
The most popular hypothesis testing procedure, the likelihood ratio test, is known to be highly non-robust in many real situations. Basu et al. (2013a) provided an alternative robust procedure of hypothesis testing based on the density power divergence; however, although the robustness properties of the latter test were intuitively argued for by the authors together with extensive empirical substantiation of the same, no theoretical robustness properties were presented in this work. In the present paper we will consider a more general class of tests which form a superfamily of the procedures d…
Robust inference based on the minimization of statistical divergences has proved to be a useful alternative to the classical techniques based on maximum likelihood and related methods. Recently Ghosh et al. (2013) proposed a general class of divergence measures, namely the S-Divergence Family and discussed its usefulness in robust parametric estimation through some numerical illustrations. In this present paper, we develop the asymptotic properties of the proposed minimum S-Divergence estimators under discrete models.
We present a robust test for composite null hypothesis based on the general $S$-divergence family. This requires a non-trivial extension of the results of Ghosh et al.~(2015). We derive the asymptotic and theoretical robustness properties of the resulting test along with the properties of the minimum $S$-divergence estimators under parameter restrictions imposed by the null hypothesis. An illustration in the context of the normal model is also presented.
University of Mannheim（曼海姆大学）；GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences（GESIS——莱布尼茨社会科学研究所）
Nonresponse in panel studies can lead to a substantial loss in data quality due to its potential to introduce bias and distort survey estimates. Recent work investigates the usage of machine learning to predict nonresponse in advance, such that predicted nonresponse propensities can be used to inform the data collection process. However, predicting nonresponse in panel studies requires accounting for the longitudinal data structure in terms of model building, tuning, and evaluation. This study proposes a longitudinal framework for predicting nonresponse with machine learning and multiple panel…
Robust inference based on the minimization of statistical divergences has proved to be a useful alternative to the classical maximum likelihood based techniques. Recently Ghosh et al. (2013) proposed a general class of divergence measures for robust statistical inference, named the S-Divergence Family. Ghosh (2014) discussed its asymptotic properties for the discrete model of densities. In the present paper, we develop the asymptotic properties of the proposed minimum S-Divergence estimators under continuous models. Here we use the Basu-Lindsay approach (1994) of smoothing the model densities …
In this paper, we propose a varying coefficient panel data model with unobservable multiple interactive fixed effects that are correlated with the regressors. We approximate each coefficient function by B-spline, and propose a robust nonlinear iteration scheme based on the least squares method to estimate the coefficient functions of interest. We also establish the asymptotic theory of the resulting estimators under certain regularity assumptions, including the consistency, the convergence rate and the asymptotic distribution. Furthermore, we develop a least squares dummy variable method to st…
Density-based minimum divergence procedures represent popular techniques in parametric statistical inference. They combine strong robustness properties with high (sometimes full) asymptotic efficiency. Among density-based minimum distance procedures, the methods based on the Bregman-divergence have the attractive property that the empirical formulation of the divergence does not require the use of any non-parametric smoothing technique such as kernel density estimation. The methods based on the density power divergence (DPD) represent the current standard in this area of research. In this pape…
While robust divergence such as density power divergence and $γ$-divergence is helpful for robust statistical inference in the presence of outliers, the tuning parameter that controls the degree of robustness is chosen in a rule-of-thumb, which may lead to an inefficient inference. We here propose a selection criterion based on an asymptotic approximation of the Hyvarinen score applied to an unnormalized model defined by robust divergence. The proposed selection criterion only requires first and second-order partial derivatives of an assumed density function with respect to observations, which…
This paper presents objective priors for robust Bayesian estimation against outliers based on divergences. The minimum $γ$-divergence estimator is well-known to work well estimation against heavy contamination. The robust Bayesian methods by using quasi-posterior distributions based on divergences have been also proposed in recent years. In objective Bayesian framework, the selection of default prior distributions under such quasi-posterior distributions is an important problem. In this study, we provide some properties of reference and moment matching priors under the quasi-posterior distribu…
In high-dimensional data, many sparse regression methods have been proposed. However, they may not be robust against outliers. Recently, the use of density power weight has been studied for robust parameter estimation and the corresponding divergences have been discussed. One of such divergences is the $γ$-divergence and the robust estimator using the $γ$-divergence is known for having a strong robustness. In this paper, we consider the robust and sparse regression based on $γ$-divergence. We extend the $γ$-divergence to the regression problem and show that it has a strong robustness under hea…
We introduce a methodology for robust Bayesian estimation with robust divergence (e.g., density power divergence or γ-divergence), indexed by a single tuning parameter. It is well known that the posterior density induced by robust divergence gives highly robust estimators against outliers if the tuning parameter is appropriately and carefully chosen. In a Bayesian framework, one way to find the optimal tuning parameter would be using evidence (marginal likelihood). However, we numerically illustrate that evidence induced by the density power divergence does not work to select the optimal tunin…
Adaptive LASSO Penalized Minimum Density Power Divergence Estimation through Least Squares Approximation: Application to Bone Mineral Density Data from the SWAN Study
Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines)（印度理工学院（印度矿业学院））
The aim of this paper is to study different estimation procedures based on $φ-$divergences. The dual representation of $φ-$divergences based on the Fenchel-Legendre duality is the main interest of this study. It provides a way to estimate $φ-$divergences by a simple plug-in of the empirical distribution without any smoothing technique. Resulting estimators are thoroughly studied theoretically and with simulations showing that the so called minimum $φ-$divergence estimator (MD$φ$DE) is generally non robust and behaves similarly to the maximum likelihood estimator. We give some arguments support…
A two-stage normal hierarchical model called the Fay--Herriot model and the empirical Bayes estimator are widely used to provide indirect and model-based estimates of means in small areas. However, the performance of the empirical Bayes estimator might be poor when the assumed normal distribution is misspecified. In this article, we propose a simple modification by using density power divergence and suggest a new robust empirical Bayes small area estimator. The mean squared error and estimated mean squared error of the proposed estimator are derived based on the asymptotic properties of the ro…
We consider the problem of robust inference under the generalized linear model (GLM) with stochastic covariates. We derive the properties of the minimum density power divergence estimator of the parameters in GLM with random design and use this estimator to propose robust Wald-type tests for testing any general composite null hypothesis about the GLM. The asymptotic and robustness properties of the proposed tests are also examined for the GLM with random design. Application of the proposed robust inference procedures to the popular Poisson regression model for analyzing count data is discussed…
The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；RIKEN AIP（理化学研究所先进智能项目中心）
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a likelihood-free inference method that has been employed in various applications. However, ABC can be sensitive to outliers if a data discrepancy measure is chosen inappropriately. In this paper, we propose to use a nearest-neighbor-based $γ$-divergence estimator as a data discrepancy measure. We show that our estimator possesses a suitable theoretical robustness property called the redescending property. In addition, our estimator enjoys various desirable properties such as high flexibility, asymptotic unbiasedness, almost sure convergence, and linea…
We propose a sparse regression method based on the non-concave penalized density power divergence loss function which is robust against infinitesimal contamination in very high dimensionality. Present methods of sparse and robust regression are based on $\ell_1$-penalization, and their theoretical properties are not well-investigated. In contrast, we use a general class of folded concave penalties that ensure sparse recovery and consistent estimation of regression coefficients. We propose an alternating algorithm based on the Concave-Convex procedure to obtain our estimate, and demonstrate its…
Identification of differentially expressed genes (DE-genes) is commonly conducted in modern biomedical researches. However, unwanted variation inevitably arises during the data collection process, which could make the detection results heavily biased. It is suggested to remove the unwanted variation while keeping the biological variation to ensure a reliable analysis result. Removing Unwanted Variation (RUV) is recently proposed for this purpose by the virtue of negative control genes. On the other hand, outliers are frequently appear in modern high-throughput genetic data that can heavily aff…
In any parametric inference problem, the robustness of the procedure is a real concern. A procedure which retains a high degree of efficiency under the model and simultaneously provides stable inference under data contamination is preferable in any practical situation over another procedure which achieves its efficiency at the cost of robustness or vice versa. The density power divergence family of Basu et al. (1998) provides a flexible class of divergences where the adjustment between efficiency and robustness is controlled by a single parameter $β$. In this paper we consider general tests of…
