COVID-19样流行病管理检测中的质量-数量权衡
Quality-Quantity Trade-offs in Tests for Management of COVID-19-like Epidemics
摘要:
有多种检测方法来确定个人感染,它们在性能,成本和延迟方面各不相同。不幸的是,性能更好的测试有时成本更高,更耗时,并且只能针对一小部分人群进行。另一方面,可以使用更便宜、快速的测试来测试更多的个体,但可能只能提供不太可靠的结果。在这项工作中,我们研究了测试成本和延迟之间的相互作用,以及部分和完全封锁提供的额外优势。为了了解不同测试策略的影响,我们在现实随机社交网络上实施了它们,其中COVID-19疫情正在发展。具体来说,我们比较了两种测试的性能,这两种测试模仿了用于COVID-19检测的流行测试的特征。我们目前的程序和直观的理解,以确定最佳的测试组合,以尽量减少高峰感染以及总隔离天数时,测试的数量是由一个固定的总预算的约束。
英文摘要:
There are multiple testing methods to ascertain an infection in an individual and they vary in their performances, cost and delay. Unfortunately, better performing tests are sometimes costlier and time consuming and can only be done for a small fraction of the population. On the other hand, greater number of individuals can be tested using a cheaper, rapid test, but may only provide less reliable results. In this work, we studied the interplay between cost and delay of the tests as well the additional advantages offered by partial and complete lockdowns. To understand the influence of different test strategies, we implemented them on realistic random social networks with a COVID-19-like epidemic in progression. Specifically, we compared the performance of two tests mimicking the characteristics of popular tests implemented for COVID-19 detection. We present procedures and intuitive understanding to ascertain the optimum combination of the tests to minimize the peak infection as well as total quarantine days when the number of tests is constrained by a fixed total budget.
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