从医疗急救电话了解和监测COVID-19疫情的演变：巴黎地区的例子
Understanding and monitoring the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic from medical emergency calls: the example of the Paris area
摘要：
我们通过分析巴黎地区四个中心部门（SAMU 75、92、93和94的15号中心）的EMS收到的医疗紧急呼叫，描绘了2020年3月至4月危机期间巴黎地区新冠肺炎疫情的演变。我们的研究揭示了这些部门之间的强烈差异。我们表明，每个流行病的对数可以近似为一个分段线性函数的时间。这使我们能够区分流行病的不同阶段，并确定卫生措施之间的延迟及其对EMS负荷的影响。这也导致了一种算法，允许人们检测流行病的复发。我们依赖于一个传输PDE流行病学模型，我们使用的方法从Perron Frobenius理论和热带几何。
英文摘要：
We portray the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic during the crisis of March-April 2020 in the Paris area, by analyzing the medical emergency calls received by the EMS of the four central departments of this area (Centre 15 of SAMU 75, 92, 93 and 94). Our study reveals strong dissimilarities between these departments. We show that the logarithm of each epidemic observable can be approximated by a piecewise linear function of time. This allows us to distinguish the different phases of the epidemic, and to identify the delay between sanitary measures and their influence on the load of EMS. This also leads to an algorithm, allowing one to detect epidemic resurgences. We rely on a transport PDE epidemiological model, and we use methods from Perron-Frobenius theory and tropical geometry.
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