Mitscherlich's function is a well-known three-parameter non-linear regression function that quantifies the relation between a stimulus or a time variable and a response. Optimal designs for this function have been constructed only for normally distributed responses with homoscedastic variances. In this paper, we construct D-optimal designs for discrete and continuous responses having their distribution function in the exponential family. We also demonstrate the connection with D-optimality for weighted linear regression.
Distribution-on-distribution regression considers the problem of formulating and estimating a regression relationship where both covariate and response are probability distributions. The optimal transport distributional regression model postulates that the conditional Fréchet mean of the response distribution is linked to the covariate distribution via an optimal transport map. We establish the minimax rate of estimation of such a regression function, by deriving a lower-bound that matches the convergence rate attained by the Fréchet least squares estimator.
We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function …
We consider minimax-optimal designs for the prediction of individual parameters in random coefficient regression models. We focus on the minimax-criterion, which minimizes the "worst case" for the basic criterion with respect to the covariance matrix of random effects. We discuss particular models: linear and quadratic regression, in detail.
The question of fast convergence in the classical problem of high dimensional linear regression has been extensively studied. Arguably, one of the fastest procedures in practice is Iterative Hard Thresholding (IHT). Still, IHT relies strongly on the knowledge of the true sparsity parameter $s$. In this paper, we present a novel fast procedure for estimation in the high dimensional linear regression. Taking advantage of the interplay between estimation, support recovery and optimization we achieve both optimal statistical accuracy and fast convergence. The main advantage of our procedure is tha…
This paper studies optimal designs for linear regression models with correlated effects for single responses. We introduce the concept of rhombic design to reduce the computational complexity and find a semi-algebraic description for the D-optimality of a rhombic design via the Kiefer-Wolfowitz equivalence theorem. Subsequently, we show that the structure of an optimal rhombic design depends directly on the correlation structure of the random coefficients.
Random coefficient regression models are a popular tool for analyzing unobserved heterogeneity, and have seen renewed interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we obtain the optimal pointwise convergence rate for estimating the density in the linear random coefficient model over Hölder smoothness classes, and in particular show how the tail behavior of the design density impacts this rate. In contrast to previous suggestions, the estimator that we propose and that achieves the optimal convergence rate does not require dividing by a nonparametric density estimate. The optimal…
Subsampling is an efficient method to deal with massive data. In this paper, we investigate the optimal subsampling for linear quantile regression when the covariates are functions. The asymptotic distribution of the subsampling estimator is first derived. Then, we obtain the optimal subsampling probabilities based on the A-optimality criterion. Furthermore, the modified subsampling probabilities without estimating the densities of the response variables given the covariates are also proposed, which are easier to implement in practise. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real data show that…
We consider the problem of link prediction, based on partial observation of a large network, and on side information associated to its vertices. The generative model is formulated as a matrix logistic regression. The performance of the model is analysed in a high-dimensional regime under a structural assumption. The minimax rate for the Frobenius-norm risk is established and a combinatorial estimator based on the penalised maximum likelihood approach is shown to achieve it. Furthermore, it is shown that this rate cannot be attained by any (randomised) algorithm computable in polynomial time un…
In this article, we propose the Sample Information Optimal Estimator (SIOE) and the Stochastic Restricted Optimal Estimator (SROE) for misspecified linear regression model when multicollinearity exists among explanatory variables. Further, we obtain the superiority conditions of proposed estimators over some other existing estimators in the Mean Square Error Matrix (MSEM) criterion in a standard form which can apply to all estimators considered in this study. Finally, a real world example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are presented for the proposed estimators to illustrate the theoretical…
An Efficient Minimax Optimal Estimator For Multivariate Convex Regression
Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院电气工程与计算机科学系）；Department of Mathematics, Tel Aviv University（特拉维夫大学数学系）
This paper studies higher-order inference properties of nonparametric local polynomial regression methods under random sampling. We prove Edgeworth expansions for $t$ statistics and coverage error expansions for interval estimators that (i) hold uniformly in the data generating process, (ii) allow for the uniform kernel, and (iii) cover estimation of derivatives of the regression function. The terms of the higher-order expansions, and their associated rates as a function of the sample size and bandwidth sequence, depend on the smoothness of the population regression function, the smoothness ex…
To fast approximate maximum likelihood estimators with massive data, this paper studies the Optimal Subsampling Method under the A-optimality Criterion (OSMAC) for generalized linear models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator from a general subsampling algorithm are established, and optimal subsampling probabilities under the A- and L-optimality criteria are derived. Furthermore, using Frobenius norm matrix concentration inequalities, finite sample properties of the subsample estimator based on optimal subsampling probabilities are also derived. Since the optimal subsamp…
Kernel smoothers are considered near the boundary of the interval. Kernels which minimize the expected mean square error are derived. These kernels are equivalent to using a linear weighting function in the local polynomial regression. It is shown that any kernel estimator that satisfies the moment conditions up to order $m$ is equivalent to a local polynomial regression of order $m$ with some non-negative weight function if and only if the kernel has at most $m$ sign changes. A fast algorithm is proposed for computing the kernel estimate in the boundary region for an arbitrary placement of da…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
We study the canonical statistical estimation problem of linear regression from $n$ i.i.d.~examples under $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy when some response variables are adversarially corrupted. We propose a variant of the popular differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) algorithm with two innovations: a full-batch gradient descent to improve sample complexity and a novel adaptive clipping to guarantee robustness. When there is no adversarial corruption, this algorithm improves upon the existing state-of-the-art approach and achieves a near optimal sample complexity.…
In this paper we study the statistical properties of Principal Components Regression with Laplacian Eigenmaps (PCR-LE), a method for nonparametric regression based on Laplacian Eigenmaps (LE). PCR-LE works by projecting a vector of observed responses ${\bf Y} = (Y_1,\ldots,Y_n)$ onto a subspace spanned by certain eigenvectors of a neighborhood graph Laplacian. We show that PCR-LE achieves minimax rates of convergence for random design regression over Sobolev spaces. Under sufficient smoothness conditions on the design density $p$, PCR-LE achieves the optimal rates for both estimation (where th…
For massive data stored at multiple machines, we propose a distributed subsampling procedure for the composite quantile regression. By establishing the consistency and asymptotic normality of the composite quantile regression estimator from a general subsampling algorithm, we derive the optimal subsampling probabilities and the optimal allocation sizes under the L-optimality criteria. A two-step algorithm to approximate the optimal subsampling procedure is developed. The proposed methods are illustrated through numerical experiments on simulated and real datasets.
In this paper we study the statistical properties of Laplacian smoothing, a graph-based approach to nonparametric regression. Under standard regularity conditions, we establish upper bounds on the error of the Laplacian smoothing estimator $\widehat{f}$, and a goodness-of-fit test also based on $\widehat{f}$. These upper bounds match the minimax optimal estimation and testing rates of convergence over the first-order Sobolev class $H^1(\mathcal{X})$, for $\mathcal{X}\subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$ and $1 \leq d < 4$; in the estimation problem, for $d = 4$, they are optimal modulo a $\log n$ factor. Ad…
k Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method is a simple and popular statistical method for classification and regression. For both classification and regression problems, existing works have shown that, if the distribution of the feature vector has bounded support and the probability density function is bounded away from zero in its support, the convergence rate of the standard kNN method, in which k is the same for all test samples, is minimax optimal. On the contrary, if the distribution has unbounded support, we show that there is a gap between the convergence rate achieved by the standard kNN method a…
We consider the problem of online linear regression on individual sequences. The goal in this paper is for the forecaster to output sequential predictions which are, after $T$ time rounds, almost as good as the ones output by the best linear predictor in a given $\ell^1$-ball in $\\R^d$. We consider both the cases where the dimension~$d$ is small and large relative to the time horizon $T$. We first present regret bounds with optimal dependencies on $d$, $T$, and on the sizes $U$, $X$ and $Y$ of the $\ell^1$-ball, the input data and the observations. The minimax regret is shown to exhibit a reg…
We investigate optimal subsampling for quantile regression. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a general subsampling estimator and then derive two versions of optimal subsampling probabilities. One version minimizes the trace of the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for a linearly transformed parameter estimator and the other minimizes that of the original parameter estimator. The former does not depend on the densities of the responses given covariates and is easy to implement. Algorithms based on optimal subsampling probabilities are proposed and asymptotic distributions and asympt…
For massive data, the family of subsampling algorithms is popular to downsize the data volume and reduce computational burden. Existing studies focus on approximating the ordinary least squares estimate in linear regression, where statistical leverage scores are often used to define subsampling probabilities. In this paper, we propose fast subsampling algorithms to efficiently approximate the maximum likelihood estimate in logistic regression. We first establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator from a general subsampling algorithm, and then derive optimal subsampling proba…
Minimax-optimal semi-supervised regression on unknown manifolds
Weizmann Institute of Science（魏茨曼科学研究所）
我们考虑半监督回归时，预测变量是从一个未知的流形。解决这个问题的一个简单的两步方法是：（i）使用标记和未标记的实例来估计任何一对点之间的流形测地线距离;以及（ii）基于这些距离估计应用k最近邻回归量。我们证明了足够多的未标记的点，这种简单的方法测地线kNN回归达到最佳的有限样本极大极小界的均方误差，如果已知的流形。此外，我们展示了如何可以有效地实现这种方法，只需要O（k N log N）的操作来估计所有N个标记和未标记点的回归函数。我们在两个具有流形结构的数据集上说明了这种方法：使用WiFi指纹的室内定位和面部姿态估计。在这两种情况下，测地线kNN比流行的拉普拉斯特征向量回归更准确，更快。
Institute for AI & Fundamental Interactions（人工智能与基础交互研究所）；Theiss Research
We present an improved method for symbolic regression that seeks to fit data to formulas that are Pareto-optimal, in the sense of having the best accuracy for a given complexity. It improves on the previous state-of-the-art by typically being orders of magnitude more robust toward noise and bad data, and also by discovering many formulas that stumped previous methods. We develop a method for discovering generalized symmetries (arbitrary modularity in the computational graph of a formula) from gradient properties of a neural network fit. We use normalizing flows to generalize our symbolic regre…
This paper considers the estimation and prediction of a high-dimensional linear regression in the setting of transfer learning, using samples from the target model as well as auxiliary samples from different but possibly related regression models. When the set of "informative" auxiliary samples is known, an estimator and a predictor are proposed and their optimality is established. The optimal rates of convergence for prediction and estimation are faster than the corresponding rates without using the auxiliary samples. This implies that knowledge from the informative auxiliary samples can be t…
In a seminal paper \cite{studden1968} characterized $c$-optimal designs in regression models, where the regression functions form a Chebyshev system. He used these results to determine the optimal design for estimating the individual coefficients in a polynomial regression model on the interval $[-1,1]$ explicitly. In this note we identify the optimal design for estimating the individual coefficients in a polynomial regression model with no intercept (here the regression functions do not form a Chebyshev system).
The subject of this work is two treatment groups random coefficient regression models, in which observational units receive some group-specific treatments. We provide A- and D-optimality criteria for the estimation of the fixed parameter and the prediction of the random effects. We illustrate the behavior of optimal designs by a simple example.
In this work, we investigate Gaussian process regression used to recover a function based on noisy observations. We derive upper and lower error bounds for Gaussian process regression with possibly misspecified correlation functions. The optimal convergence rate can be attained even if the smoothness of the imposed correlation function exceeds that of the true correlation function and the sampling scheme is quasi-uniform. As byproducts, we also obtain convergence rates of kernel ridge regression with misspecified kernel function, where the underlying truth is a deterministic function. The conv…
We provide a systematic treatment of $D$-optimal design for binary regression and quantal response models in toxicology studies. For the two-parameter case, we provide an analytical equation (WC equation) for computing the $D$-optimal design quickly and when analytical solution is not available, we apply particle swarm optimization to solve for the $D$-optimal design. Examples with various link functions are given as well as the sensitivity functions. We extend the two-parameter case to three-parameter case by providing a neat formula for the determinant of the information matrix. We also sugg…
The subject of this work is multiple group random coefficients regression models with several treatments and one control group. Such models are often used for studies with cluster randomized trials. We investigate A-, D- and E-optimal designs for estimation and prediction of fixed and random treatment effects, respectively, and illustrate the obtained results by numerical examples.
In this note we consider the optimal design problem for estimating the slope of a polynomial regression with no intercept at a given point, say z. In contrast to previous work, which considers symmetric design spaces we investigate the model on the interval $[0, a]$ and characterize those values of $z$, where an explicit solution of the optimal design is possible.
Improvements in technology lead to increasing availability of large data sets which makes the need for data reduction and informative subsamples ever more important. In this paper we construct $ D $-optimal subsampling designs for polynomial regression in one covariate for invariant distributions of the covariate. We study quadratic regression more closely for specific distributions. In particular we make statements on the shape of the resulting optimal subsampling designs and the effect of the subsample size on the design. To illustrate the advantage of the optimal subsampling designs we exam…
In general, the solution to a regression problem is the minimizer of a given loss criterion, and depends on the specified loss function. The nonparametric isotonic regression problem is special, in that optimal solutions can be found by solely specifying a functional. These solutions will then be minimizers under all loss functions simultaneously as long as the loss functions have the requested functional as the Bayes act. For the functional, the only requirement is that it can be defined via an identification function, with examples including the expectation, quantile, and expectile functiona…
