In this work, we investigate Gaussian process regression used to recover a function based on noisy observations. We derive upper and lower error bounds for Gaussian process regression with possibly misspecified correlation functions. The optimal convergence rate can be attained even if the smoothness of the imposed correlation function exceeds that of the true correlation function and the sampling scheme is quasi-uniform. As byproducts, we also obtain convergence rates of kernel ridge regression with misspecified kernel function, where the underlying truth is a deterministic function. The convergence rates of Gaussian process regression and kernel ridge regression are closely connected, which is aligned with the relationship between sample paths of Gaussian process and the corresponding reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
High-dimensional prediction with multiple data types needs to account for potentially strong differences in predictive signal. Ridge regression is a simple model for high-dimensional data that has challenged the predictive performance of many more complex models and learners, and that allows inclusion of data type specific penalties. The largest challenge for multi-penalty ridge is to optimize these penalties efficiently in a cross-validation (CV) setting, in particular for GLM and Cox ridge regression, which require an additional estimation loop by iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). Our…
In projection pursuit regression (PPR), an unknown response function is approximated by the sum of M "ridge functions," which are flexible functions of one-dimensional projections of a multivariate input space. Traditionally, optimization routines are used to estimate the projection directions and ridge functions via a sequential algorithm, and M is typically chosen via cross-validation. We introduce the first Bayesian version of PPR, which has the benefit of accurate uncertainty quantification. To learn the projection directions and ridge functions, we apply novel adaptations of methods used …
Random binning features, introduced in the seminal paper of Rahimi and Recht (2007), are an efficient method for approximating a kernel matrix using locality sensitive hashing. Random binning features provide a very simple and efficient way of approximating the Laplace kernel but unfortunately do not apply to many important classes of kernels, notably ones that generate smooth Gaussian processes, such as the Gaussian kernel and Matern kernel. In this paper, we introduce a simple weighted version of random binning features and show that the corresponding kernel function generates Gaussian proce…
Kernel ridge regression is an important nonparametric method for estimating smooth functions. We introduce a new set of conditions, under which the actual rates of convergence of the kernel ridge regression estimator under both the L_2 norm and the norm of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space exceed the standard minimax rates. An application of this theory leads to a new understanding of the Kennedy-O'Hagan approach for calibrating model parameters of computer simulation. We prove that, under certain conditions, the Kennedy-O'Hagan calibration estimator with a known covariance function converg…
Focusing on a high dimensional linear model $y = Xβ+ ε$ with dependent, non-stationary, and heteroskedastic errors, this paper applies the debiased and threshold ridge regression method that gives a consistent estimator for linear combinations of $β$; and derives a Gaussian approximation theorem for the estimator. Besides, it proposes a dependent wild bootstrap algorithm to construct the estimator's confidence intervals and perform hypothesis testing. Numerical experiments on the proposed estimator and the bootstrap algorithm show that they have favorable finite sample performance. Research on…
In the multivariate regression, also referred to as multi-task learning in machine learning, the goal is to recover a vector-valued function based on noisy observations. The vector-valued function is often assumed to be of low rank. Although the multivariate linear regression is extensively studied in the literature, a theoretical study on the multivariate nonlinear regression is lacking. In this paper, we study reduced rank multivariate kernel ridge regression, proposed by \cite{mukherjee2011reduced}. We prove the consistency of the function predictor and provide the convergence rate. An algo…
We study the following three fundamental problems about ridge regression: (1) what is the structure of the estimator? (2) how to correctly use cross-validation to choose the regularization parameter? and (3) how to accelerate computation without losing too much accuracy? We consider the three problems in a unified large-data linear model. We give a precise representation of ridge regression as a covariance matrix-dependent linear combination of the true parameter and the noise. We study the bias of $K$-fold cross-validation for choosing the regularization parameter, and propose a simple bias-c…
In this paper, I show that classic two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimates are highly unstable with weak instruments. I propose a ridge estimator (ridge IV) and show that it is asymptotically normal even with weak instruments, whereas 2SLS is severely distorted and un-bounded. I motivate the ridge IV estimator as a convex optimization problem with a GMM objective function and an L2 penalty. I show that ridge IV leads to sizable mean squared error reductions theoretically and validate these results in a simulation study inspired by data designs of papers published in the American Economic Revi…
Features in predictive models are not exchangeable, yet common supervised models treat them as such. Here we study ridge regression when the analyst can partition the features into $K$ groups based on external side-information. For example, in high-throughput biology, features may represent gene expression, protein abundance or clinical data and so each feature group represents a distinct modality. The analyst's goal is to choose optimal regularization parameters $λ= (λ_1, \dotsc, λ_K)$ -- one for each group. In this work, we study the impact of $λ$ on the predictive risk of group-regularized …
In this paper, we propose a random projection approach to estimate variance in kernel ridge regression. Our approach leads to a consistent estimator of the true variance, while being computationally more efficient. Our variance estimator is optimal for a large family of kernels, including cubic splines and Gaussian kernels. Simulation analysis is conducted to support our theory.
This paper aims to solve a basic problem in distributed statistical inference: how many machines can we use in parallel computing? In kernel ridge regression, we address this question in two important settings: nonparametric estimation and hypothesis testing. Specifically, we find a range for the number of machines under which optimal estimation/testing is achievable. The employed empirical processes method provides a unified framework, that allows us to handle various regression problems (such as thin-plate splines and nonparametric additive regression) under different settings (such as univa…
CREST（经济与统计研究中心）；ENSAE（法国国立统计与经济管理学院）；Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia（意大利理工学院）；MIT（麻省理工学院）
In this note, we provide an elementary analysis of the prediction error of ridge regression with random design. The proof is short and self-contained. In particular, it bypasses the use of Rudelson's deviation inequality for covariance matrices, through a combination of exchangeability arguments, matrix perturbation and operator convexity.
Comparing regularisation paths of (conjugate) gradient estimators in ridge regression
Institute of Mathematics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin（柏林洪堡大学数学研究所）；Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Vienna（维也纳大学统计与运筹学系）
Ridge leverage scores provide a balance between low-rank approximation and regularization, and are ubiquitous in randomized linear algebra and machine learning. Deterministic algorithms are also of interest in the moderately big data regime, because deterministic algorithms provide interpretability to the practitioner by having no failure probability and always returning the same results. We provide provable guarantees for deterministic column sampling using ridge leverage scores. The matrix sketch returned by our algorithm is a column subset of the original matrix, yielding additional interpr…
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experi…
The success of the Lasso in the era of high-dimensional data can be attributed to its conducting an implicit model selection, i.e., zeroing out regression coefficients that are not significant. By contrast, classical ridge regression can not reveal a potential sparsity of parameters, and may also introduce a large bias under the high-dimensional setting. Nevertheless, recent work on the Lasso involves debiasing and thresholding, the latter in order to further enhance the model selection. As a consequence, ridge regression may be worth another look since -- after debiasing and thresholding -- i…
We analyze the prediction error of ridge regression in an asymptotic regime where the sample size and dimension go to infinity at a proportional rate. In particular, we consider the role played by the structure of the true regression parameter. We observe that the case of a general deterministic parameter can be reduced to the case of a random parameter from a structured prior. The latter assumption is a natural adaptation of classic smoothness assumptions in nonparametric regression, which are known as source conditions in the the context of regularization theory for inverse problems. Roughly…
In many areas, practitioners need to analyze large datasets that challenge conventional single-machine computing. To scale up data analysis, distributed and parallel computing approaches are increasingly needed. Here we study a fundamental and highly important problem in this area: How to do ridge regression in a distributed computing environment? Ridge regression is an extremely popular method for supervised learning, and has several optimality properties, thus it is important to study. We study one-shot methods that construct weighted combinations of ridge regression estimators computed on e…
Amazon（亚马逊）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Oxford University（牛津大学）
Methods for learning from data depend on various types of tuning parameters, such as penalization strength or step size. Since performance can depend strongly on these parameters, it is important to compare classes of estimators-by considering prescribed finite sets of tuning parameters-not just particularly tuned methods. In this work, we investigate classes of methods via the relative performance of the best method in the class. We consider the central problem of linear regression-with a random isotropic ground truth-and investigate the estimation performance of two fundamental methods, grad…
We consider the problem of estimating a meta-model of an unknown regression model with non-Gaussian and non-bounded error. The meta-model belongs to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space constructed as a direct sum of Hilbert spaces leading to an additive decomposition including the variables and interactions between them. The estimator of this meta-model is calculated by minimizing an empirical least-squares criterion penalized by the sum of the Hilbert norm and the empirical $L^2$-norm. In this context, the upper bounds of the empirical $L^2$ risk and the $L^2$ risk of the estimator are establi…
University of Chicago, Booth School of Business（芝加哥大学布斯商学院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
In the absence of explicit regularization, Kernel "Ridgeless" Regression with nonlinear kernels has the potential to fit the training data perfectly. It has been observed empirically, however, that such interpolated solutions can still generalize well on test data. We isolate a phenomenon of implicit regularization for minimum-norm interpolated solutions which is due to a combination of high dimensionality of the input data, curvature of the kernel function, and favorable geometric properties of the data such as an eigenvalue decay of the empirical covariance and kernel matrices. In addition t…
I propose kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects in the setting where an analyst has access to a selected sample rather than a random sample; only for select observations, the outcome is observed. I assume selection is as good as random conditional on treatment and a sufficiently rich set of observed covariates, where the covariates are allowed to cause treatment or be caused by treatment -- an extension of missingness-at-random (MAR). I propose estimators of means, increments, and distributions of counterfactual outcomes …
Distribution-Free Confidence Ellipsoids for Ridge Regression with PAC Bounds
Institute for Computer Science；Control (SZTAKI), Hungarian Research Network (HUN-REN), 13-17 Kende utca, H-1111, Budapest, Hungary (e-mail: ).；Department of Probability Theory；Statistics, Institute of Mathematics, E\"otv\"os Lor\'；University (ELTE), 1/C Pázmány Péter sétány, H-1117, Budapest, Hungary (e-mail: )
