测量培养中的频率依赖性选择
Measuring frequency-dependent selection in culture
摘要：
文化特征，如词语、名称、装饰风格和技术标准，往往具有任意的价值，并被认为是中性的。但中性进化无法解释为什么有些特征在流行周期中来来去去，而另一些特征却根深蒂固。在这里，我们研究频率依赖选择（FDS）-其中一个特征的倾向被复制取决于其当前的频率，而不管特征值本身。我们开发了一种最大似然方法来推断FDS的精确形式的性状丰度的时间序列，我们应用该方法的数据在上个世纪的婴儿的名字和宠物狗的品种。我们发现，最常见的名字平均每年下降2%-6%;而罕见的名字-每10，000个新生儿中有1个-每年增加1%-3%。尽管文化、语言和人口结构存在差异，但这种特定形式的负FDS解释了多样性模式，并在美国、法国、挪威和荷兰复制。我们推断，男性和女性的名字，这意味着不同的创新率之间的固定健身偏移。我们还发现一个强大的选择优势，圣经的名字在每个频率类，这解释了他们的优势，最常见的名字。在纯种犬的登记中，我们推断出一种负FDS形式，这与对新奇事物的偏好是一致的，每年最新的品种比前一个品种增长约1%/年，这也概括了狗爱好者的繁荣-萧条周期。最后，我们定义了有效的频率依赖性选择的概念，这使得一个有意义的解释推断FDS，即使是复杂的进化机制。我们的分析概括了中性的进化，将整合和反整合的压力作为社会进化的基本力量，我们的推理过程提供了一个定量的说明，这些力量如何在文化内部和跨文化运作。
英文摘要：
Cultural traits such as words, names, decorative styles, and technical standards often assume arbitrary values and are thought to evolve neutrally. But neutral evolution cannot explain why some traits come and go in cycles of popularity while others become entrenched. Here we study frequency-dependent selection (FDS)--where a trait's tendency to be copied depends on its current frequency regardless of the trait value itself. We develop a maximum-likelihood method to infer the precise form of FDS from time series of trait abundance, and we apply the method to data on baby names and pet dog breeds over the last century. We find that the most common names tend to decline by 2%-6% per yr on average; whereas rare names--1 in 10,000 births--tend to increase by 1%-3% per yr. This specific form of negative FDS explains patterns of diversity and replicates across the United States, France, Norway and the Netherlands, despite cultural, linguistic and demographic variation. We infer a fixed fitness offset between male and female names that implies different rates of innovation. We also find a strong selective advantage for biblical names in every frequency class, which explains their predominance among the most common names. In purebred dog registrations we infer a form of negative FDS that is consistent with a preference for novelty, in which each year's newest breeds outgrow the previous by about 1%/yr, which also recapitulates boom-bust cycles in dog fanciers. Finally, we define the concept of effective frequency-dependent selection, which enables a meaningful interpretation of inferred FDS even for complex mechanisms of evolution. Our analysis generalizes neutral evolution to incorporate pressures of conformity and anti-conformity as fundamental forces in social evolution, and our inference procedure provides a quantitative account of how these forces operate within and across cultures.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
