印度村庄中的风险、农业生产与天气指数保险
Risk, Agricultural Production, and Weather Index Insurance in Village India
AI总结：
本文利用地块面板数据、多层模型和贝叶斯方法量化天气季节变化对印度作物产量方差的贡献，并据此推导精算公平的天气指数保险定价与赔付方案。
摘要：
我们在印度小农户天气指数保险的背景下，调查农业生产变化的来源及其相对重要性。利用地块层面的面板数据、多层建模和贝叶斯方法，我们衡量天气的季节变化在解释产量方差中发挥多大作用。天气的季节变化占作物产量总方差的19%至20%。受这一结果启发，我们推导了精算公平指数保险的定价和赔付方案。这些计算揭示了指数保险参保率较低的原因，并为设计更合适的指数保险提供了方向。
英文摘要：
We investigate the sources of variability in agricultural production and their relative importance in the context of weather index insurance for smallholder farmers in India. Using parcel-level panel data, multilevel modeling, and Bayesian methods we measure how large a role seasonal variation in weather plays in explaining yield variance. Seasonal variation in weather accounts for 19-20 percent of total variance in crop yields. Motivated by this result, we derive pricing and payout schedules for actuarially fair index insurance. These calculations shed light on the low uptake rates of index insurance and provide direction for designing more suitable index insurance.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
