关于指数保险在US农业中的效益：利用卫星数据的大规模分析
On the benefits of index insurance in US agriculture: a large-scale analysis using satellite data
摘要：
与传统的农场保险相比，指数保险被认为是减少农业风险的一个有前途的解决方案。通过将赔付与区域因素而不是个人损失联系起来，指数保险降低了监控成本，并消除了道德风险和逆向选择的问题。尽管指数保险在理论上很有吸引力，但在许多发展中国家，对指数保险的需求仍然很低，引发了关于低吸收率原因的辩论。令人惊讶的是，在这场辩论中，几乎没有讨论美国的经验。美国是一个独特的案例，因为基于农场和基于指数的产品已经存在了20多年。此外，保险区的数量非常大，可以在空间上进行有趣的比较。与发展中国家一样，指数保险的采用率相当低-不到保险面积的5%。这是否意味着我们应该放弃指数保险？在本文中，我们利用从卫星预测中获得的玉米和大豆的实地数据集，研究了美国指数保险的低采用率。虽然以前的研究是基于县的聚合或相对较小的农场级数据集，我们的卫星数据为我们提供了大量的字段（接近180万），包括在大量的指数区（600）观察超过20年。为了评估指数保险的适用性，我们运行了一个大规模的模拟比较两个保险计划的好处，使用一个新的措施，农场等效的指数保险的风险覆盖。我们做出了两个主要贡献。首先，我们表明，在我们的模拟中，指数保险的需求出乎意料地高，约占总需求的30%至40%。这一结果对放松模型的几个假设和使用前景理论而不是期望效用是稳健的。
英文摘要：
Index insurance has been promoted as a promising solution for reducing agricultural risk compared to traditional farm-based insurance. By linking payouts to a regional factor instead of individual loss, index insurance reduces monitoring costs, and alleviates the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection. Despite its theoretical appeal, demand for index insurance has remained low in many developing countries, triggering a debate on the causes of the low uptake. Surprisingly, there has been little discussion in this debate about the experience in the United States. The US is an unique case as both farm-based and index-based products have been available for more than two decades. Furthermore, the number of insurance zones is very large, allowing interesting comparisons over space. As in developing countries, the adoption of index insurance is rather low -- less than than 5\% of insured acreage. Does this mean that we should give up on index insurance? In this paper, we investigate the low take-up of index insurance in the US leveraging a field-level dataset for corn and soybean obtained from satellite predictions. While previous studies were based either on county aggregates or on relatively small farm-level dataset, our satellite-derived data gives us a very large number of fields (close to 1.8 million) comprised within a large number of index zones (600) observed over 20 years. To evaluate the suitability of index insurance, we run a large-scale simulation comparing the benefits of both insurance schemes using a new measure of farm-equivalent risk coverage of index insurance. We make two main contributions. First, we show that in our simulations, demand for index insurance is unexpectedly high, at about 30\% to 40\% of total demand. This result is robust to relaxing several assumptions of the model and to using prospect theory instead of expected utility.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
