We conjecture that, for a fixed prime $p$, rational elliptic curves with higher rank tend to have more points mod $p$. We show that there is an analogous bias for modular forms with respect to root numbers, and conjecture that the order of the rank bias for elliptic curves is greater than that of the root number bias for modular forms.
We establish a conditional equivalence between quantitative unboundedness of the analytic rank of elliptic curves over $\mathbb Q$ and the existence of highly biased elliptic curve prime number races. We show that conditionally on a Riemann Hypothesis and on a hypothesis on the multiplicity of the zeros of $L(E,s)$, large analytic ranks translate into an extreme Chebyshev bias. Conversely, we show under a certain linear independence hypothesis on zeros of $L(E,s)$ that if highly biased elliptic curve prime number races do exist, then the Riemann Hypothesis holds for infinitely many elliptic cu…
We study one-parameter families of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}(T)$, which are of the form $y^2=x^3+A(T)x+B(T)$, with non-constant $j$-invariant. We define the $r$\textsuperscript{th} moment of an elliptic curve to be $A_{r,E}(p) := \frac1{p} \sum_{t \bmod p} a_t(p)^r$, where $a_t(p)$ is $p$ minus the number of solutions to $y^2 = x^3 + A(t)x + B(t) \bmod p$. Rosen and Silverman showed biases in the first moment equal the rank of the Mordell-Weil group of rational solutions. Michel proved that $pA_{2,E}(p)=p^2+O(p^{3/2})$. Based on several special families where computations can be done in…
Elliptic curves arise in many important areas of modern number theory. One way to study them is take local data, the number of solutions modulo $p$, and create an $L$-function. The behavior of this global object is related to two of the seven Clay Millennial Problems: the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture and the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis. We study one-parameter families over $\mathbb{Q}(T)$, which are of the form $y^2=x^3+A(T)x+B(T)$, with non-constant $j$-invariant. We define the r-th moment of an elliptic curve to be $A_{r,E}(p) := \frac1{p} \sum_{t \bmod p} a_t(p)^r$, where $a_t(p)…
By considering a one-parameter family of elliptic curves defined over $\mathbb{Q}$, we might ask ourselves if there is any bias in the distribution (or parity) of the root numbers at each specialization. From the work of Helfgott, we know (at least conjecturally) that the average root number of an elliptic curve defined over $\mathbb{Q}(T)$ is zero as soon as there is a place of multiplicative reduction over $\mathbb{Q}(T)$ other than $-$deg. Recently, Helfgott's work was extended by Desjardins, where she relaxes some of Helfgott's hypotheses and is able to provide unconditional results on the…
In this article, we propose a new probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves in families of fixed Selmer rank, and compare the predictions with previous results, and with the databases of curves over the rationals that we have at our disposal. In addition, we document a phenomenon we refer to as Selmer bias that seems to play an important role in the data and in our models.
The Katz-Sarnak philosophy predicts that statistics of zeros of families of L-functions are strikingly universal. However, subtle arithmetical differences between families of the same symmetry type can be detected by calculating lower-order terms of the statistics of interest. In this paper we calculate lower-order terms of the 1-level density of some families of elliptic curves. We show that there are essentially two different effects on the distribution of low-lying zeros. First, low-lying zeros are more numerous in families of elliptic curves E with relatively large numbers of points (mod p…
We study the prime number race for elliptic curves over the function field of a proper, smooth and geometrically connected curve over a finite field. This constitutes a function field analogue of prior work by Mazur, Sarnak and the second author. In this geometric setting we can prove unconditional results whose counterparts in the number field case are conditional on a Riemann Hypothesis and a linear independence hypothesis on the zeros of the implied L-functions. Notably we show that in certain natural families of elliptic curves, the bias generically dissipates as the conductor grows. This …
Let $\mathcal{X} : y^2 = f(x)$ be a hyperelliptic curve over $\mathbb{Q}(T)$ of genus $g\geq 1$. Assume that the jacobian of $\mathcal{X}$ over $\mathbb{Q}(T)$ has no subvariety defined over $\mathbb{Q}$. Denote by $\mathcal{X}_t$ the specialization of $\mathcal{X}$ to an integer $T=t$, let $a_{\mathcal{X}_t}(p)$ be its trace of Frobenius, and $A_{\mathcal{X},r}(p) = \frac{1}{p}\sum_{t=1}^p a_{\mathcal{X}_t}(p)^r$ its $r$-th moment. The first moment is related to the rank of the jacobian $J_\mathcal{X}\left(\mathbb{Q}(T)\right)$ by a generalization of a conjecture of Nagao: $$\lim_{X \to \inft…
These informal notes are an expanded version of lectures on the moduli space of elliptic curves given at Zhejiang University in July, 2008. Their goal is to introduce and motivate basic concepts and constructions (such as orbifolds and stacks) important in the study of moduli spaces of curves and abelian varieties through the example of elliptic curves. The reason for working with elliptic curves is that most constructions are elementary and explicit in this case. All four approaches to moduli spaces of curves -- complex analytic, topological, algebro-geometric, and number theoretic -- are con…
We present a new algorithm for computing the endomorphism ring of an ordinary abelian surface over a finite field which is subexponential and generalizes an algorithm of Bisson and Sutherland for elliptic curves. The correctness of this algorithm only requires the heuristic assumptions required by the algorithm of Biasse and Fieker which computes the class group of an order in a number field in subexponential time. Thus we avoid the multiple heuristic assumptions on isogeny graphs and polarized class groups which were previously required. The output of the algorithm is an ideal in the maximal …
The Katz-Sarnak density conjecture states that, in the limit as the conductors tend to infinity, the behavior of normalized zeros near the central point of families of L-functions agree with the N -> oo scaling limits of eigenvalues near 1 of subgroups of U(N). Evidence for this has been found for many families by studying the n-level densities; for suitably restricted test functions the main terms agree with random matrix theory. In particular, all one-parameter families of elliptic curves with rank r over Q(T) and the same distribution of signs of functional equations have the same limiting …