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arXiv 2102.08180cs.AI
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基于论证的情报分析中的信息价值

Value of Information for Argumentation based Intelligence Analysis

Defence Science and Technology Laboratory(国防科学技术实验室)

Todd Robinson

摘要:

论证提供了论证和这些论证之间的攻击的表示。论证可以用来表示对证据进行推理以得出结论的过程。在这样的推理过程中,理解信息的价值可以根据推理过程的输出来提高决策的质量。一项信息的价值本质上取决于现有的证据和推理所回答的问题。在本文中,我们引入了一个价值的参数框架的信息,以确定最有价值的参数在框架中的参数的有限集合内,参数和攻击,可以添加到改变输出的评估。我们证明了在一个参数框架内的信息的价值,代表在海事领域的情报分析。了解信息在情报分析中的价值将使分析人员能够平衡收集的成本和风险,有效地要求进一步收集情报,以增加对假设分析的信心。

英文摘要:

Argumentation provides a representation of arguments and attacks between these arguments. Argumentation can be used to represent a reasoning process over evidence to reach conclusions. Within such a reasoning process, understanding the value of information can improve the quality of decision making based on the output of the reasoning process. The value of an item of information is inherently dependent on the available evidence and the question being answered by the reasoning. In this paper we introduce a value of information on argument frameworks to identify the most valuable arguments within the finite set of arguments in the framework, and the arguments and attacks which could be added to change the output of an evaluation. We demonstrate the value of information within an argument framework representing an intelligence analysis in the maritime domain. Understanding the value of information in an intelligence analysis will allow analysts to balance the value against the costs and risks of collection, to effectively request further collection of intelligence to increase the confidence in the analysis of hypotheses.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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