聚变能的潜在早期市场
Potential Early Markets for Fusion Energy
摘要：
我们确定潜在的早期市场聚变能源和他们的预计成本目标，基于分析和综合许多相关的，最近的研究和报告。由于私营聚变公司希望在2040年之前开始商业部署，我们根据今天的市场价格，但与2035年可能的情况有关的各种调整，如“一切照旧”，高可再生能源渗透率，碳定价高达100 \$/tCO $_2$，研究了聚变发电，工艺热和氢气生产的成本要求。主要研究结果是，聚变开发商应考虑首先关注高价的全球电力市场，并包括集成热存储，以最大限度地提高收入，并在可再生能源渗透率高的市场中竞争。过程热和氢的生产将是聚变的早期市场，但随着市场的发展，如果聚变的电力成本降至50美元/兆瓦时$_\mathrm{e}$以下，聚变可能会开放。最后，我们讨论了聚变电站通过热电联产增加收入的潜在方法（例如，脱盐、直接空气捕获或区域供热）和降低资本成本（例如，通过最小化建造时间和利息或通过改造燃煤电厂）。
英文摘要：
We identify potential early markets for fusion energy and their projected cost targets, based on analysis and synthesis of many relevant, recent studies and reports. Because private fusion companies aspire to start commercial deployment before 2040, we examine cost requirements for fusion-generated electricity, process heat, and hydrogen production based on today's market prices but with various adjustments relating to possible scenarios in 2035, such as "business-as-usual," high renewables penetration, and carbon pricing up to 100 \$/tCO$_2$. Key findings are that fusion developers should consider focusing initially on high-priced global electricity markets and including integrated thermal storage in order to maximize revenue and compete in markets with high renewables penetration. Process heat and hydrogen production will be tough early markets for fusion, but may open up to fusion as markets evolve and if fusion's levelized cost of electricity falls below 50 \$/MWh$_\mathrm{e}$. Finally, we discuss potential ways for a fusion plant to increase revenue via cogeneration (e.g., desalination, direct air capture, or district heating) and to lower capital costs (e.g., by minimizing construction times and interest or by retrofitting coal plants).
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
