不可预测的人工文化市场中的可预测性
Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market
摘要：
在个人的决定直接受到他人决定影响的社会、经济和文化情况下，似乎存在着固有的高度事先不可预测性。在电影、歌曲和书籍等文化市场中，消息灵通的专家经常做出错误的预测。我们研究的程度，社会影响力的存在可能，有点自相矛盾的是，增加的程度，赢家可以确定在一个非常早期的阶段，在这个过程中。一旦选择过程开始，可能只需要非常少的决定，就可以有合理的前景来确定最终的赢家。我们通过分析Salganik等人（2006）的音乐下载实验来说明这一点。我们得出一个规则，早期识别最终的赢家。虽然不完美，但它在实践中取得了相当大的成功。我们通过将其应用于构建规则过程中未使用的类似数据来验证规则。
英文摘要：
In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets such as films, songs and books, well-informed experts routinely make predictions which turn out to be incorrect. We examine the extent to which the existence of social influence may, somewhat paradoxically, increase the extent to which winners can be identified at a very early stage in the process. Once the process of choice has begun, only a very small number of decisions may be necessary to give a reasonable prospect of being able to identify the eventual winner. We illustrate this by an analysis of the music download experiments of Salganik et.al. (2006). We derive a rule for early identification of the eventual winner. Although not perfect, it gives considerable practical success. We validate the rule by applying it to similar data not used in the process of constructing the rule.
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