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arXiv 2401.08680physics.soc-ph
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早期新冠病例位置中的邻近确认偏差

Proximity Ascertainment Bias in Early Covid Case Locations

M. B. Weissman

AI总结:

本研究对比早期新冠病例到华南海鲜市场的距离,发现邻近确认偏差显著,指出基于病例位置聚集性的疫情起源推断在该偏差下不可靠。

摘要:

将已知与华南海鲜市场有关联的早期新冠病例和无已知关联病例到该市场的距离进行对比,结果显示与不存在邻近确认偏差的位置模型明显不符。差异的符号反而与该确认偏差较大的模型一致。存在此类偏差时,基于病例位置聚集性的推断将不可靠。

英文摘要:

A comparison of the distances to the Huanan Seafood Market of early Covid cases with known links to the market versus cases without known links shows results apparently incompatible with a location model lacking proximity ascertainment bias. The sign of the difference instead agrees with a model in which such ascertainment bias is large. In the presence of such bias inferences based on the clustering of case locations become unreliable.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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