This note continues study of exchangeability martingales, i.e., processes that are martingales under any exchangeable distribution for the observations. Such processes can be used for detecting violations of the IID assumption, which is commonly made in machine learning. Violations of the IID assumption are sometimes referred to as dataset shift, and dataset shift is sometimes subdivided into concept shift, covariate shift, etc. Our primary interest is in concept shift, but we will also discuss exchangeability martingales that decompose perfectly into two components one of which detects concept shift and the other detects what we call label shift. Our methods will be based on techniques of conformal prediction.
Change Detection in Probability Flow ODE: Online Testing in Diffusion Latent Spaces
National Research University Higher School of Economics（国立研究型大学高等经济学院）；The University of Sydney Business School（悉尼大学商学院）；CIREQ（蒙特利尔数量经济学研究中心）；CEBDA（应用经济学与数据分析研究中心）
We derive new algorithms for online multiple testing that provably control false discovery exceedance (FDX) while achieving orders of magnitude more power than previous methods. This statistical advance is enabled by the development of new algorithmic ideas: earlier algorithms are more "static" while our new ones allow for the dynamical adjustment of testing levels based on the amount of wealth the algorithm has accumulated. We demonstrate that our algorithms achieve higher power in a variety of synthetic experiments. We also prove that SupLORD can provide error control for both FDR and FDX, a…
In time series data analysis, detecting change points on a real-time basis (online) is of great interest in many areas, such as finance, environmental monitoring, and medicine. One promising means to achieve this is the Bayesian online change point detection (BOCPD) algorithm, which has been successfully adopted in particular cases in which the time series of interest has a fixed baseline. However, we have found that the algorithm struggles when the baseline irreversibly shifts from its initial state. This is because with the original BOCPD algorithm, the sensitivity with which a change point …
Biological research often involves testing a growing number of null hypotheses as new data is accumulated over time. We study the problem of online control of the familywise error rate (FWER), that is testing an apriori unbounded sequence of hypotheses (p-values) one by one over time without knowing the future, such that with high probability there are no false discoveries in the entire sequence. This paper unifies algorithmic concepts developed for offline (single batch) FWER control and online false discovery rate control to develop novel online FWER control methods. Though many offline FWER…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）
In hypothesis testing, a false discovery occurs when a hypothesis is incorrectly rejected due to noise in the sample. When adaptively testing multiple hypotheses, the probability of a false discovery increases as more tests are performed. Thus the problem of False Discovery Rate (FDR) control is to find a procedure for testing multiple hypotheses that accounts for this effect in determining the set of hypotheses to reject. The goal is to minimize the number (or fraction) of false discoveries, while maintaining a high true positive rate (i.e., correct discoveries). In this work, we study False …
Valid online inference is an important problem in contemporary multiple testing research,to which various solutions have been proposed recently. It is well-known that these existing methods can suffer from a significant loss of power if the null $p$-values are conservative. In this work, we extend the previously introduced methodology to obtain more powerful procedures for the case of super-uniformly distributed $p$-values. These types of $p$-values arise in important settings, e.g. when discrete hypothesis tests are performed or when the $p$-values are weighted. To this end, we introduce the …
Multiple hypothesis testing, a situation when we wish to consider many hypotheses, is a core problem in statistical inference that arises in almost every scientific field. In this setting, controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of type I error, is an important challenge for making meaningful inferences. In this paper, we consider the problem of controlling FDR in an online manner. Concretely, we consider an ordered, possibly infinite, sequence of hypotheses, arriving one at each timestep, and for each hypothesis we observe a p-value along with a set of fea…
In this work, we introduce statistical testing under distributional shifts. We are interested in the hypothesis $P^* \in H_0$ for a target distribution $P^*$, but observe data from a different distribution $Q^*$. We assume that $P^*$ is related to $Q^*$ through a known shift $τ$ and formally introduce hypothesis testing in this setting. We propose a general testing procedure that first resamples from the observed data to construct an auxiliary data set and then applies an existing test in the target domain. We prove that if the size of the resample is at most $o(\sqrt{n})$ and the resampling w…
Online testing procedures aim to control the extent of false discoveries over a sequence of hypothesis tests, allowing for the possibility that early-stage test results influence the choice of hypotheses to be tested in later stages. Typically, online methods assume that a permanent decision regarding the current test (reject or not reject) must be made before advancing to the next test. We instead assume that each hypothesis requires an immediate preliminary decision, but also allows us to update that decision until a preset deadline. Roughly speaking, this lets us apply a Benjamini-Hochberg-…
We study an online multiple testing problem where the hypotheses arrive sequentially in a stream. The test statistics are independent and assumed to have the same distribution under their respective null hypotheses. We investigate two procedures LORD and LOND, proposed by (Javanmard and Montanari, 2015), which are proved to control the FDR in an online manner. In some (static) model, we show that LORD is optimal in some asymptotic sense, in particular as powerful as the (static) Benjamini-Hochberg procedure to first asymptotic order. We also quantify the performance of LOND. Some numerical exp…
Design-Driven Inference for Online Experiments: Jointly Optimal Evidence Collection, Testing, and Estimation
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学数学与统计学院）；School of Science, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing（中国矿业大学（北京）理学院）；Department of Statistics, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai（北京师范大学珠海校区统计学系）
One important partition of algorithms for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in multiple testing is into offline and online algorithms. The first generally achieve significantly higher power of discovery, while the latter allow making decisions sequentially as well as adaptively formulating hypotheses based on past observations. Using existing methodology, it is unclear how one could trade off the benefits of these two broad families of algorithms, all the while preserving their formal FDR guarantees. To this end, we introduce $\text{Batch}_{\text{BH}}$ and $\text{Batch}_{\text{St-BH}}…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Multiple hypothesis testing is a core problem in statistical inference and arises in almost every scientific field. Given a set of null hypotheses $\mathcal{H}(n) = (H_1,\dotsc, H_n)$, Benjamini and Hochberg introduced the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of false positives among rejected null hypotheses, and proposed a testing procedure that controls FDR below a pre-assigned significance level. Nowadays FDR is the criterion of choice for large scale multiple hypothesis testing. In this paper we consider the problem of controlling FDR in an "online manner". Concrete…
A common dilemma encountered by many upon implementing an optimization method or experiment, whether it be a reinforcement learning algorithm, or A/B testing, is deciding on what metric to optimize for. Very often short-term metrics, which are easier to measure are chosen over long term metrics which have undesirable time considerations and often a more complex calculation. In this paper, we argue the importance of choosing a metrics that focuses on long term effects. With this comes the necessity in the ability to measure significant differences between groups relatively early. We present her…
A problem of goodness-of-fit test for ergodic diffusion processes is presented. In the null hypothesis the drift of the diffusion is supposed to be in a parametric form with unknown shift parameter. Two Cramer-Von Mises type test statistics are studied. The first one is based on local time estimator of the invariant density, the second one is based on the empirical distribution function. The unknown parameter is estimated via the maximum likelihood estimator. It is shown that both the limit distributions of the two test statistics do not depend on the unknown parameter, so the distributions of…
We distinguish two general modes of testing for Deep Neural Networks (DNNs): Offline testing where DNNs are tested as individual units based on test datasets obtained without involving the DNNs under test, and online testing where DNNs are embedded into a specific application environment and tested in a closed-loop mode in interaction with the application environment. Typically, DNNs are subjected to both types of testing during their development life cycle where offline testing is applied immediately after DNN training and online testing follows after offline testing and once a DNN is deploye…
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Facebook AI Research（Facebook 人工智能研究院）
Machine learning models often encounter distribution shifts when deployed in the real world. In this paper, we focus on adaptation to label distribution shift in the online setting, where the test-time label distribution is continually changing and the model must dynamically adapt to it without observing the true label. Leveraging a novel analysis, we show that the lack of true label does not hinder estimation of the expected test loss, which enables the reduction of online label shift adaptation to conventional online learning. Informed by this observation, we propose adaptation algorithms in…
University of Luxembourg（卢森堡大学）；University of Ottawa（渥太华大学）
There is a growing body of research on developing testing techniques for Deep Neural Networks (DNN). We distinguish two general modes of testing for DNNs: Offline testing where DNNs are tested as individual units based on test datasets obtained independently from the DNNs under test, and online testing where DNNs are embedded into a specific application and tested in a close-loop mode in interaction with the application environment. In addition, we identify two sources for generating test datasets for DNNs: Datasets obtained from real-life and datasets generated by simulators. While offline te…
We consider the problem of online learning in the presence of distribution shifts that occur at an unknown rate and of unknown intensity. We derive a new Bayesian online inference approach to simultaneously infer these distribution shifts and adapt the model to the detected changes by integrating ideas from change point detection, switching dynamical systems, and Bayesian online learning. Using a binary 'change variable,' we construct an informative prior such that--if a change is detected--the model partially erases the information of past model updates by tempering to facilitate adaptation t…
Comparison Lift is an experimentation-as-a-service (EaaS) application for testing online advertising audiences and creatives at JD.com. Unlike many other EaaS tools that focus primarily on fixed sample A/B testing, Comparison Lift deploys a custom bandit-based experimentation algorithm. The advantages of the bandit-based approach are two-fold. First, it aligns the randomization induced in the test with the advertiser's goals from testing. Second, by adapting experimental design to information acquired during the test, it reduces substantially the cost of experimentation to the advertiser. Sinc…
Firms implementing digital advertising campaigns face a complex problem in determining the right match between their advertising creatives and target audiences. Typical solutions to the problem have leveraged non-experimental methods, or used "split-testing" strategies that have not explicitly addressed the complexities induced by targeted audiences that can potentially overlap with one another. This paper presents an adaptive algorithm that addresses the problem via online experimentation. The algorithm is set up as a contextual bandit and addresses the overlap issue by partitioning the targe…
Before A/B testing online a new version of a recommender system, it is usual to perform some offline evaluations on historical data. We focus on evaluation methods that compute an estimator of the potential uplift in revenue that could generate this new technology. It helps to iterate faster and to avoid losing money by detecting poor policies. These estimators are known as counterfactual or off-policy estimators. We show that traditional counterfactual estimators such as capped importance sampling and normalised importance sampling are experimentally not having satisfying bias-variance compro…
Nanjing University（南京大学）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；RIKEN AIP（理化学研究所人工智能研究中心）
The standard supervised learning paradigm works effectively when training data shares the same distribution as the upcoming testing samples. However, this stationary assumption is often violated in real-world applications, especially when testing data appear in an online fashion. In this paper, we formulate and investigate the problem of \emph{online label shift} (OLaS): the learner trains an initial model from the labeled offline data and then deploys it to an unlabeled online environment where the underlying label distribution changes over time but the label-conditional density does not. The…
London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院）；Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院系统科学研究所）；ByteDance（字节跳动）；The Univeristy of North Carolina at Chapell Hill（北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）
A/B testing, or online experiment is a standard business strategy to compare a new product with an old one in pharmaceutical, technological, and traditional industries. Major challenges arise in online experiments of two-sided marketplace platforms (e.g., Uber) where there is only one unit that receives a sequence of treatments over time. In those experiments, the treatment at a given time impacts current outcome as well as future outcomes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a reinforcement learning framework for carrying A/B testing in these experiments, while characterizing the long-term …
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
We consider the problem of asynchronous online testing, aimed at providing control of the false discovery rate (FDR) during a continual stream of data collection and testing, where each test may be a sequential test that can start and stop at arbitrary times. This setting increasingly characterizes real-world applications in science and industry, where teams of researchers across large organizations may conduct tests of hypotheses in a decentralized manner. The overlap in time and space also tends to induce dependencies among test statistics, a challenge for classical methodology, which either…
Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to remove the bias between training and testing distributions using importance weighting often provide poor performance guarantees in theory and unreliable predictions with high variance in practice. Recently developed methods that construct a predictor that is inherently robust to the difficulties of learning under covariate shift are restricted to minimizing l…
We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options against control pills for different diseases, or when internet companies test their default webpages versus various alternatives over time. Our framework proposes to replace a sequence of A/B tests by a sequence of best-arm MAB instances, which can be continuously monitored by the data scientist. When interleaving the MAB tests with an an online false discove…
University of Luxembourg（卢森堡大学）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）；University of Ottawa（渥太华大学）
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been widely used to perform real-world tasks in cyber-physical systems such as Autonomous Driving Systems (ADS). Ensuring the correct behavior of such DNN-Enabled Systems (DES) is a crucial topic. Online testing is one of the promising modes for testing such systems with their application environments (simulated or real) in a closed loop taking into account the continuous interaction between the systems and their environments. However, the environmental variables (e.g., lighting conditions) that might change during the systems' operation in the real world, caus…
The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Test-time adaptation (TTA) is a technique used to reduce distribution gaps between the training and testing sets by leveraging unlabeled test data during inference. In this work, we expand TTA to a more practical scenario, where the test data comes in the form of online streams that experience distribution shifts over time. Existing approaches face two challenges: reliance on a large test data batch from the same domain and the absence of explicitly modeling the continual distribution evolution process. To address both challenges, we propose a meta-learning approach that teaches the network to…
