Dynamic Causal Effects Evaluation in A/B Testing with a Reinforcement Learning Framework
London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院）；Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院系统科学研究所）；ByteDance（字节跳动）；The Univeristy of North Carolina at Chapell Hill（北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）
Chengchun Shi, Xiaoyu Wang, Shikai Luo, Hongtu Zhu, Jieping Ye, Rui Song
A/B testing, or online experiment is a standard business strategy to compare a new product with an old one in pharmaceutical, technological, and traditional industries. Major challenges arise in online experiments of two-sided marketplace platforms (e.g., Uber) where there is only one unit that receives a sequence of treatments over time. In those experiments, the treatment at a given time impacts current outcome as well as future outcomes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a reinforcement learning framework for carrying A/B testing in these experiments, while characterizing the long-term treatment effects. Our proposed testing procedure allows for sequential monitoring and online updating. It is generally applicable to a variety of treatment designs in different industries. In addition, we systematically investigate the theoretical properties (e.g., size and power) of our testing procedure. Finally, we apply our framework to both simulated data and a real-world data example obtained from a technological company to illustrate its advantage over the current practice. A Python implementation of our test is available at https://github.com/callmespring/CausalRL.
Nanjing University（南京大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）
Model-based methods have recently shown promising for offline reinforcement learning (RL), aiming to learn good policies from historical data without interacting with the environment. Previous model-based offline RL methods learn fully connected nets as world-models that map the states and actions to the next-step states. However, it is sensible that a world-model should adhere to the underlying causal effect such that it will support learning an effective policy generalizing well in unseen states. In this paper, We first provide theoretical results that causal world-models can outperform plai…
CausalCOMRL: Context-Based Offline Meta-Reinforcement Learning with Causal Representation
organization= School of Software , addressline= Shandong University , city= Jinan , postcode= 250101 , country= China；organization= The State Key Lab of Brain-Machine Intelligence , addressline= Zhejiang University , city= Hangzhou , postcode= 310027 , country= China
Discovering and exploiting the causal structure in the environment is a crucial challenge for intelligent agents. Here we explore whether causal reasoning can emerge via meta-reinforcement learning. We train a recurrent network with model-free reinforcement learning to solve a range of problems that each contain causal structure. We find that the trained agent can perform causal reasoning in novel situations in order to obtain rewards. The agent can select informative interventions, draw causal inferences from observational data, and make counterfactual predictions. Although established formal…
Mila（米拉研究所）；Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔综合理工学院）；Deepmind（深度思维）；Element AI（Element AI公司）；Google AI（谷歌人工智能）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in machine learning. Most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables themselves are observed. However, for AI agents such as robots trying to make sense of their environment, the only observables are low-level variables like pixels in images. To generalize well, an agent must induce high-level variables, particularly those which are causal or are affected by causal variables. A central goal for AI and causality is thus the joint discovery of abstract representations and causal structure. However, we n…
University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Ingham Institute（英厄姆研究所）
Discovering causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many domains. However, state-of-the-art methods seldom consider the possibility that the observational data has missing values (incomplete data), which is ubiquitous in many real-world situations. The missing value will significantly impair the performance and even make the causal discovery algorithms fail. In this paper, we propose an approach to discover causal structures from incomplete data by using a novel encoder and reinforcement learning (RL). The encoder is designed for missing data imputation as well as…
InstaDeep Ltd.（InstaDeep有限公司）；University of Cape Town（开普敦大学）
This paper serves to introduce the reader to the field of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) and its intersection with methods from the study of causality. We highlight key challenges in MARL and discuss these in the context of how causal methods may assist in tackling them. We promote moving toward a 'causality first' perspective on MARL. Specifically, we argue that causality can offer improved safety, interpretability, and robustness, while also providing strong theoretical guarantees for emergent behaviour. We discuss potential solutions for common challenges, and use this context to…
Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
We consider the problem of learning from demonstrated trajectories with inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). Motivated by a limitation of the classical maximum entropy model in capturing the structure of the network of states, we propose an IRL model based on a generalized version of the causal entropy maximization problem, which allows us to generate a class of maximum entropy IRL models. Our generalized model has an advantage of being able to recover, in addition to a reward function, another expert's function that would (partially) capture the impact of the connecting structure of the stat…
Prevalent theories in cognitive science propose that humans understand and represent the knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In making sense of the world, we build causal models in our mind to encode cause-effect relations of events and use these to explain why new events happen. In this paper, we use causal models to derive causal explanations of behaviour of reinforcement learning agents. We present an approach that learns a structural causal model during reinforcement learning and encodes causal relationships between variables of interest. This model is then used to generat…
Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学）；Alexandra Institute（亚历山德拉研究所）
Many open problems in machine learning are intrinsically related to causality, however, the use of causal analysis in machine learning is still in its early stage. Within a general reinforcement learning setting, we consider the problem of building a general reinforcement learning agent which uses experience to construct a causal graph of the environment, and use this graph to inform its policy. Our approach has three characteristics: First, we learn a simple, coarse-grained causal graph, in which the variables reflect states at many time instances, and the interventions happen at the level of…
Instituto Nacional de Astrofisica Optica y Electronica (INAOE)（国家天体物理、光学与电子学研究所（INAOE））
We use an analogy between non-isomorphic mathematical structures defined over the same set and the algebras induced by associative and causal levels of information in order to argue that Reinforcement Learning, in its current formulation, is not a causal problem, independently if the motivation behind it has to do with an agent taking actions.
DeepMind；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Mila, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学Mila研究所）
In reinforcement learning, we can learn a model of future observations and rewards, and use it to plan the agent's next actions. However, jointly modeling future observations can be computationally expensive or even intractable if the observations are high-dimensional (e.g. images). For this reason, previous works have considered partial models, which model only part of the observation. In this paper, we show that partial models can be causally incorrect: they are confounded by the observations they don't model, and can therefore lead to incorrect planning. To address this, we introduce a gene…
Learning Nonlinear Causal Reductions to Explain Reinforcement Learning Policies
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）；Tübingen AI Center（图宾根人工智能中心）；ELLIS Institute（ELLIS研究所）；Technische Universität Braunschweig（不伦瑞克工业大学）
Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) algorithms infer a reward function that explains demonstrations provided by an expert acting in the environment. Maximum Causal Entropy (MCE) IRL is currently the most popular formulation of IRL, with numerous extensions. In this tutorial, we present a compressed derivation of MCE IRL and the key results from contemporary implementations of MCE IRL algorithms. We hope this will serve both as an introductory resource for those new to the field, and as a concise reference for those already familiar with these topics.
Tackling Non-Stationarity in Reinforcement Learning via Causal-Origin Representation
School of Computer Science, Peking University（北京大学计算机学院）；Center for Statistical Science, Peking University（北京大学统计科学中心）；School of Data Science, Fudan University（复旦大学数据科学学院）；Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence（北京人工智能研究院）
In this paper, a sparse Markov decision process (MDP) with novel causal sparse Tsallis entropy regularization is proposed.The proposed policy regularization induces a sparse and multi-modal optimal policy distribution of a sparse MDP. The full mathematical analysis of the proposed sparse MDP is provided.We first analyze the optimality condition of a sparse MDP. Then, we propose a sparse value iteration method which solves a sparse MDP and then prove the convergence and optimality of sparse value iteration using the Banach fixed point theorem. The proposed sparse MDP is compared to soft MDPs wh…
We present Q-Cogni, an algorithmically integrated causal reinforcement learning framework that redesigns Q-Learning with an autonomous causal structure discovery method to improve the learning process with causal inference. Q-Cogni achieves optimal learning with a pre-learned structural causal model of the environment that can be queried during the learning process to infer cause-and-effect relationships embedded in a state-action space. We leverage on the sample efficient techniques of reinforcement learning, enable reasoning about a broader set of policies and bring higher degrees of interpr…
D3HRL: A Distributed Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning Approach Based on Causal Discovery and Spurious Correlation Detection
College of Computer Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology（国防科技大学计算机学院）；Intelligent Game and Decision Lab (IGDL)（智能游戏与决策实验室）；College of Artificial Intelligence, Hebei University of Technology（河北工业大学人工智能学院）；School of Electronic information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院）
Institute of Computing Technology, CAS（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Cambricon Technologies（寒武纪科技）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）；Institute of Software, CAS（中国科学院软件研究所）；University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）
Hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) effectively improves agents' exploration efficiency on tasks with sparse reward, with the guide of high-quality hierarchical structures (e.g., subgoals or options). However, how to automatically discover high-quality hierarchical structures is still a great challenge. Previous HRL methods can hardly discover the hierarchical structures in complex environments due to the low exploration efficiency by exploiting the randomness-driven exploration paradigm. To address this issue, we propose CDHRL, a causality-driven hierarchical reinforcement learning fram…
Efficient software testing is essential for productive software development and reliable user experiences. As human testing is inefficient and expensive, automated software testing is needed. In this work, we propose a Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework for functional software testing named DRIFT. DRIFT operates on the symbolic representation of the user interface. It uses Q-learning through Batch-RL and models the state-action value function with a Graph Neural Network. We apply DRIFT to testing the Windows 10 operating system and show that DRIFT can robustly trigger the desired software f…
Many reinforcement learning (RL) environments consist of independent entities that interact sparsely. In such environments, RL agents have only limited influence over other entities in any particular situation. Our idea in this work is that learning can be efficiently guided by knowing when and what the agent can influence with its actions. To achieve this, we introduce a measure of \emph{situation-dependent causal influence} based on conditional mutual information and show that it can reliably detect states of influence. We then propose several ways to integrate this measure into RL algorithm…
We study the problem of experiment design to learn causal structures from interventional data. We consider an active learning setting in which the experimenter decides to intervene on one of the variables in the system in each step and uses the results of the intervention to recover further causal relationships among the variables. The goal is to fully identify the causal structures with minimum number of interventions. We present the first deep reinforcement learning based solution for the problem of experiment design. In the proposed method, we embed input graphs to vectors using a graph neu…
Reinforcement learning is an appropriate and successful method to robustly perform low-level robot control under noisy conditions. Symbolic action planning is useful to resolve causal dependencies and to break a causally complex problem down into a sequence of simpler high-level actions. A problem with the integration of both approaches is that action planning is based on discrete high-level action- and state spaces, whereas reinforcement learning is usually driven by a continuous reward function. However, recent advances in reinforcement learning, specifically, universal value function approx…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Tianjin University（天津大学）
It is a long-standing question to discover causal relations among a set of variables in many empirical sciences. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has achieved promising results in causal discovery from observational data. However, searching the space of directed graphs and enforcing acyclicity by implicit penalties tend to be inefficient and restrict the existing RL-based method to small scale problems. In this work, we propose a novel RL-based approach for causal discovery, by incorporating RL into the ordering-based paradigm. Specifically, we formulate the ordering search problem as a m…
College of Computer Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology（国防科技大学计算机科学与技术学院）；Intelligent Game and Decision Lab (IGDL)（智能游戏与决策实验室）；Institute of Military Transportation（军事交通运输研究院）；School of Artificial Intelligence, Hebei University of Technology（河北工业大学人工智能学院）
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹自由大学）；Universiteit van Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）
Causal discovery is a major task with the utmost importance for machine learning since causal structures can enable models to go beyond pure correlation-based inference and significantly boost their performance. However, finding causal structures from data poses a significant challenge both in computational effort and accuracy, let alone its impossibility without interventions in general. In this paper, we develop a meta-reinforcement learning algorithm that performs causal discovery by learning to perform interventions such that it can construct an explicit causal graph. Apart from being usef…
When learning a task as a team, some agents in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) may fail to understand their true impact in the performance of the team. Such agents end up learning sub-optimal policies, demonstrating undesired lazy behaviours. To investigate this problem, we start by formalising the use of temporal causality applied to MARL problems. We then show how causality can be used to penalise such lazy agents and improve their behaviours. By understanding how their local observations are causally related to the team reward, each agent in the team can adjust their individual cr…
Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院）；IRT Saint Exupéry Canada（加拿大圣埃克苏佩里技术研究所）；Ubisoft La Forge（育碧La Forge实验室）；Inria Bordeaux Sud-Ouest（法国国家信息与自动化研究所波尔多西南分部）
Learning efficiently a causal model of the environment is a key challenge of model-based RL agents operating in POMDPs. We consider here a scenario where the learning agent has the ability to collect online experiences through direct interactions with the environment (interventional data), but has also access to a large collection of offline experiences, obtained by observing another agent interacting with the environment (observational data). A key ingredient, that makes this situation non-trivial, is that we allow the observed agent to interact with the environment based on hidden informatio…
Campbell-Goodhart's law relates to the causal inference error whereby decision-making agents aim to influence variables which are correlated to their goal objective but do not reliably cause it. This is a well known error in Economics and Political Science but not widely labelled in Artificial Intelligence research. Through a simple example, we show how off-the-shelf deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms are not necessarily immune to this cognitive error. The off-policy learning method is tricked, whilst the on-policy method is not. The practical implication is that naive application of …
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)（挪威科技大学 (NTNU)）
We investigate the effect of including domain knowledge about a robotic system's causal relations when generating explanations. To this end, we compare two methods from explainable artificial intelligence, the popular KernelSHAP and the recent causal SHAP, on a deep neural network trained using deep reinforcement learning on the task of controlling a lever using a robotic manipulator. A primary disadvantage of KernelSHAP is that its explanations represent only the features' direct effects on a model's output, not considering the indirect effects a feature can have on the output by affecting ot…
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）
Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures generating the observational data. Despite its success in certain problems, in many real-world scenarios the observed variables are not the target variables of interest, but the imperfect measures of the target variables. Causal discovery under measurement error aims to recover the causal graph among unobserved target variables from observations made with measurement error. We consider a specific formulation of the problem, where the unobserved target variables follow a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model, and the measurement process follows the…
A significant challenge in reinforcement learning is quantifying the complex relationship between actions and long-term rewards. The effects may manifest themselves over a long sequence of state-action pairs, making them hard to pinpoint. In this paper, we propose a method to link transitions with significant deviations in state with unusually large variations in subsequent rewards. Such transitions are marked as possible causal effects, and the corresponding state-action pairs are added to a separate replay buffer. In addition, we include \textit{contrastive} samples corresponding to transiti…
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Guangdong University of Technology（广东工业大学）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；Shantou University（汕头大学）
Can humans get arbitrarily capable reinforcement learning (RL) agents to do their bidding? Or will sufficiently capable RL agents always find ways to bypass their intended objectives by shortcutting their reward signal? This question impacts how far RL can be scaled, and whether alternative paradigms must be developed in order to build safe artificial general intelligence. In this paper, we study when an RL agent has an instrumental goal to tamper with its reward process, and describe design principles that prevent instrumental goals for two different types of reward tampering (reward function…
