Discovering causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many domains. However, state-of-the-art methods seldom consider the possibility that the observational data has missing values (incomplete data), which is ubiquitous in many real-world situations. The missing value will significantly impair the performance and even make the causal discovery algorithms fail. In this paper, we propose an approach to discover causal structures from incomplete data by using a novel encoder and reinforcement learning (RL). The encoder is designed for missing data imputation as well as feature extraction. In particular, it learns to encode the currently available information (with missing values) into a robust feature representation which is then used to determine where to search the best graph. The encoder is integrated into a RL framework that can be optimized using the actor-critic algorithm. Our method takes the incomplete observational data as input and generates a causal structure graph. Experimental results on synthetic and real data demonstrate that our method can robustly generate causal structures from incomplete data. Compared with the direct combination of data imputation and causal discovery methods, our method performs generally better and can even obtain a performance gain as much as 43.2%.
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
As systems are getting more autonomous with the development of artificial intelligence, it is important to discover the causal knowledge from observational sensory inputs. By encoding a series of cause-effect relations between events, causal networks can facilitate the prediction of effects from a given action and analyze their underlying data generation mechanism. However, missing data are ubiquitous in practical scenarios. Directly performing existing casual discovery algorithms on partially observed data may lead to the incorrect inference. To alleviate this issue, we proposed a deep learni…
Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data assuming that the causal structure is known. To make the problem more challenging, the causal effects are highly nonlinear and the data are missing at random. The tools used in the estimation include causal models with design, causal calculus, multiple imputation and generalized additive models. The main message is that a trained statistician can estimate ca…
Centre d’Analyse et de Mathématique Sociales（社会分析与数学中心）；EHESS（高等社会科学研究院）；Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées（应用数学中心）；École Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；Inria XPOP（法国国家信息与自动化研究所XPOP团队）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Inferring causal effects of a treatment, intervention or policy from observational data is central to many applications. However, state-of-the-art methods for causal inference seldom consider the possibility that covariates have missing values, which is ubiquitous in many real-world analyses. Missing data greatly complicate causal inference procedures as they require an adapted unconfoundedness hypothesis which can be difficult to justify in practice. We circumvent this issue by considering latent confounders whose distribution is learned through variational autoencoders adapted to missing val…
Estimating causal effects from observational data (at either an individual -- or a population -- level) is critical for making many types of decisions. One approach to address this task is to learn decomposed representations of the underlying factors of data; this becomes significantly more challenging when there are confounding factors (which influence both the cause and the effect). In this paper, we take a generative approach that builds on the recent advances in Variational Auto-Encoders to simultaneously learn those underlying factors as well as the causal effects. We propose a progressiv…
Causal discovery algorithms estimate causal graphs from observational data. This can provide a valuable complement to analyses focussing on the causal relation between individual treatment-outcome pairs. Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms rely on conditional independence testing when building the graph. Until recently, these algorithms have been unable to handle missing values. In this paper, we investigate two alternative solutions: Test-wise deletion and multiple imputation. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the recoverability of causal structures under test-wise…
University of Jyvaskyla（于韦斯屈莱大学）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）
Causal effect identification considers whether an interventional probability distribution can be uniquely determined without parametric assumptions from measured source distributions and structural knowledge on the generating system. While complete graphical criteria and procedures exist for many identification problems, there are still challenging but important extensions that have not been considered in the literature. To tackle these new settings, we present a search algorithm directly over the rules of do-calculus. Due to generality of do-calculus, the search is capable of taking more adva…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable. We present a general and automated approach to causal inference in discrete settings. We show causal questions with discrete data reduce to polynomial programming problems, and we present an algorithm to automatically bound causal effects using efficient dual relaxation and spatial branch-and-bound techniques. The user declares an estimand, states assumptions…
Although understanding and characterizing causal effects have become essential in observational studies, it is challenging when the confounders are high-dimensional. In this article, we develop a general framework $\textit{CausalEGM}$ for estimating causal effects by encoding generative modeling, which can be applied in both binary and continuous treatment settings. Under the potential outcome framework with unconfoundedness, we establish a bidirectional transformation between the high-dimensional confounders space and a low-dimensional latent space where the density is known (e.g., multivaria…
The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described precisely. Causal models with design describe the study design and the missing data mechanism together with the causal structure and allow the direct application of causal calculus in the estimation of the causal effects. The flow of the study is visualized by ordering the nodes of the causal diagram in two dimensions by their causal order and the time of the observ…
Language Agents Meet Causality -- Bridging LLMs and Causal World Models
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Institute for Logic, Language and Computation (ILLC)（逻辑、语言与计算研究所）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Institute for Language, Cognition and Computation (ILCC)（语言、认知与计算研究所）
We focus on the problem of generalizing a causal effect estimated on a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to a target population described by a set of covariates from observational data. Available methods such as inverse propensity sampling weighting are not designed to handle missing values, which are however common in both data sources. In addition to coupling the assumptions for causal effect identifiability and for the missing values mechanism and to defining appropriate estimation strategies, one difficulty is to consider the specific structure of the data with two sources and treatment an…
Conventional methods for causal structure learning from data face significant challenges due to combinatorial search space. Recently, the problem has been formulated into a continuous optimization framework with an acyclicity constraint to learn Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). Such a framework allows the utilization of deep generative models for causal structure learning to better capture the relations between data sample distributions and DAGs. However, so far no study has experimented with the use of Wasserstein distance in the context of causal structure learning. Our model named DAG-WGAN c…
We consider the design and analysis of multi-factor experiments using fractional factorial and incomplete designs within the potential outcome framework. These designs are particularly useful when limited resources make running a full factorial design infeasible. We connect our design-based methods to standard regression methods. We further motivate the usefulness of these designs in multi-factor observational studies, where certain treatment combinations may be so rare that there are no measured outcomes in the observed data corresponding to them. Therefore, conceptualizing a hypothetical fra…
In many data scientific problems, we are interested in inferring causal relationships in the data generating mechanism. Here, we consider the following real-world question: how has the Colombian conflict influenced tropical forest loss? There is evidence for both enhancing and reducing impacts. Answering such questions requires the use of causal models. In this work, we propose a class of causal models for spatio-temporal stochastic processes. It allows us to formally define and quantify the causal effect of a vector of covariates $X$ on a real-valued response $Y$, even if the causal backgroun…
Granger-Geweke causality (GGC) is a powerful and popular method for identifying directed functional (`causal') connectivity in neuroscience. In a recent paper, Stokes and Purdon [1] raise several concerns about its use. They make two primary claims: (1) that GGC estimates may be severely biased or of high variance, and (2) that GGC fails to reveal the full structural/causal mechanisms of a system. However, these claims rest, respectively, on an incomplete evaluation of the literature, and a misconception about what GGC can be said to measure. Here we explain how existing approaches (as impleme…
StarCraft, one of the most popular real-time strategy games, is a compelling environment for artificial intelligence research for both micro-level unit control and macro-level strategic decision making. In this study, we address an eminent problem concerning macro-level decision making, known as the 'fog-of-war', which rises naturally from the fact that information regarding the opponent's state is always provided in the incomplete form. For intelligent agents to play like human players, it is obvious that making accurate predictions of the opponent's status under incomplete information will i…
Causal Reasoning Favors Encoders: On The Limits of Decoder-Only Models
SIRE, IIT Delhi（IIT德里SIRE）；Robert Bosch GmbH, India（印度罗伯特博世集团）；IIIT Hyderabad（海得拉巴IIIT）；IISER Kolkata（科钦IISER）；Microsoft and the University of York（微软和约克大学）
Text normalization is a ubiquitous process that appears as the first step of many Natural Language Processing problems. However, previous Deep Learning approaches have suffered from so-called silly errors, which are undetectable on unsupervised frameworks, making those models unsuitable for deployment. In this work, we make use of an attention-based encoder-decoder architecture that overcomes these undetectable errors by using a fine-grained character-level approach rather than a word-level one. Furthermore, our new general-purpose encoder based on causal convolutions, called Causal Feature Ex…
Learning a generative model from partial data (data with missingness) is a challenging area of machine learning research. We study a specific implementation of the Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB) algorithm, named in this paper as a Variational Auto-Decoder (VAD). VAD is a generic framework which uses Variational Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to learn a generative model from partial data. The main distinction between VAD and Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) is the encoder component, as VAD does not have one. Using a proposed efficient inference method from a multivariat…
Causal structures for observational survival data provide crucial information regarding the relationships between covariates and time-to-event. We derive motivation from the information theoretic source coding argument, and show that incorporating the knowledge of the directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be beneficial if suitable source encoders are employed. As a possible source encoder in this context, we derive a variational inference based conditional variational autoencoder for causal structured survival prediction, which we refer to as DAGSurv. We illustrate the performance of DAGSurv on low…
WhisperRT -- Turning Whisper into a Causal Streaming Model
Andrew and Erna Viterbi Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Technion–Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院安德鲁与厄娜·维特比电气与计算机工程学院）；Language Technologies Institute, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学计算机科学学院语言技术研究所）
REALM: Retrospective Encoder Alignment for LFP Modeling
Department of Biomedical Engineering, The Ohio State University（生物医学工程系，俄亥俄州立大学）；Department of Information Technology, Monash University Malaysia（信息技术系，墨尔本大学马来西亚分校）；NeuroTech Insititude, Columbus, OH, United States（神经科技研究所，美国哥伦布）
Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；Beijing Big Data Centre（北京大数据中心）
As a representative of public transportation, the fundamental issue of managing bike-sharing systems is bike flow prediction. Recent methods overemphasize the spatio-temporal correlations in the data, ignoring the effects of contextual conditions on the transportation system and the inter-regional timevarying causality. In addition, due to the disturbance of incomplete observations in the data, random contextual conditions lead to spurious correlations between data and features, making the prediction of the model ineffective in special scenarios. To overcome this issue, we propose a Spatio-tem…
In this paper, we consider the problem of multi-view clustering on incomplete views. Compared with complete multi-view clustering, the view-missing problem increases the difficulty of learning common representations from different views. To address the challenge, we propose a novel incomplete multi-view clustering framework, which incorporates cross-view relation transfer and multi-view fusion learning. Specifically, based on the consistency existing in multi-view data, we devise a cross-view relation transfer-based completion module, which transfers known similar inter-instance relationships …
University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Making evidence based decisions requires data. However for real-world applications, the privacy of data is critical. Using synthetic data which reflects certain statistical properties of the original data preserves the privacy of the original data. To this end, prior works utilize differentially private data release mechanisms to provide formal privacy guarantees. However, such mechanisms have unacceptable privacy vs. utility trade-offs. We propose incorporating causal information into the training process to favorably modify the aforementioned trade-off. We theoretically prove that generative…
