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arXiv 1902.02885math.STstat.MLstat.TH
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上下文在线错误发现率控制

Contextual Online False Discovery Rate Control

Shiyun Chen, Shiva Kasiviswanathan

摘要:

多重假设检验是统计推断中的一个核心问题,几乎出现在所有科学领域。在这种情况下,控制错误发现率(FDR),这是第一类错误的预期比例,是一个重要的挑战,使有意义的推论。在本文中,我们考虑的问题,控制FDR在线的方式。具体地说,我们考虑一个有序的,可能是无限的假设序列,在每个时间步到达一个,对于每个假设,我们观察到一个p值以及一组特定于该假设的特征。在观察到下一个假设之前,必须在每个时间步立即做出是否拒绝当前假设的决定。多维特征集模型提供了一种非常通用的方法来利用数据中的辅助信息,这有助于最大限度地提高发现的数量。我们提出了一类新的强大的在线测试程序,其中拒绝阈值(显着性水平)的学习顺序,结合上下文信息和以前的结果。我们证明,在这个类中的任何规则控制在线FDR下一些标准的假设。然后,我们专注于这些程序的一个子类,加权显着性水平的基础上,推导出一个实用的算法,学习参数权函数在网上的方式,以获得更多的发现。我们还从理论上证明,在程式化的环境中,我们提出的程序将导致比Javanmard & Montanari(2018)提出的流行在线测试程序更高的统计功效。最后,我们证明了我们的程序的良好性能,通过比较它的国家的最先进的在线多个测试程序,从不同的应用程序生成的合成数据和真实数据。

英文摘要:

Multiple hypothesis testing, a situation when we wish to consider many hypotheses, is a core problem in statistical inference that arises in almost every scientific field. In this setting, controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of type I error, is an important challenge for making meaningful inferences. In this paper, we consider the problem of controlling FDR in an online manner. Concretely, we consider an ordered, possibly infinite, sequence of hypotheses, arriving one at each timestep, and for each hypothesis we observe a p-value along with a set of features specific to that hypothesis. The decision whether or not to reject the current hypothesis must be made immediately at each timestep, before the next hypothesis is observed. The model of multi-dimensional feature set provides a very general way of leveraging the auxiliary information in the data which helps in maximizing the number of discoveries. We propose a new class of powerful online testing procedures, where the rejections thresholds (significance levels) are learnt sequentially by incorporating contextual information and previous results. We prove that any rule in this class controls online FDR under some standard assumptions. We then focus on a subclass of these procedures, based on weighting significance levels, to derive a practical algorithm that learns a parametric weight function in an online fashion to gain more discoveries. We also theoretically prove, in a stylized setting, that our proposed procedures would lead to an increase in the achieved statistical power over a popular online testing procedure proposed by Javanmard & Montanari (2018). Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of our procedure, by comparing it to state-of-the-art online multiple testing procedures, on both synthetic data and real data generated from different applications.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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