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arXiv 2012.06542physics.acc-phhep-ex
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加速器应用模拟中的模型不确定性

Model uncertainty in accelerator application simulations

Vitaly Pronskikh

摘要:

蒙特卡罗核反应和输运程序被广泛用于设计基于加速器的核物理实验;同时,许多实验被用来验证蒙特卡罗程序,这可以用于全尺寸核电应用的设计或新的基准实验的设计。专门的模型基准研究调查了广泛的核反应和数量。其中的例子包括同位素形成或次级粒子通量,导致从GeV范围的强子与单一同位素目标的相互作用,这可以用来评估各自的系统模型的不确定性。这些基准研究以及各团体在过去几十年中进行的许多核应用实验和模拟,使我们能够吸取方法上的经验教训。在这项工作中,模型的不确定性确定的基础上,现有的实验数据,使我们能够识别从业者的专业知识,以及设计的代码(用户访问微观尺度参数)的不确定性的范围内的影响。我们发现,在由代码开发人员或在执行模拟方面非常有经验的用户执行模拟的情况下,模型与实验的数量比通常与专用基准研究确定的限制一致。在其他情况下,比率通常倾向于较小(低估模型误差)或较大(高估模型误差)。对上述影响提出了一个合理的解释。

英文摘要:

Monte-Carlo nuclear reaction and transport codes are widely used to devise accelerator-based nuclear physics experiments; at the same time, many experiments are performed to validate the Monte-Carlo codes, which can be used for the design of full-scale nuclear power applications or the design of new benchmark experiments. Dedicated model benchmark studies investigate a broad range of nuclear reactions and quantities. Examples of these include isotope formation or secondary particle fluxes that result from the interactions of GeV-range hadrons with monoisotopic targets, which can be used to assess the respective systematic uncertainty of models. Such benchmark studies, as well as many nuclear application experiments and simulations carried out by various groups over the last few decades, enable us to draw methodological lessons. In this work, model uncertainty determined based on available experimental data allow us to identify the effects of practitioner expertise as well as the design of codes (user access to micro-scale parameters) on the range of uncertainties. We found that in cases when simulations are performed by code developers or users that are very experienced in performing simulations, the model to experiment quantity ratios generally agree with the limits determined by dedicated benchmark studies. In other cases, the ratios generally tend to be either smaller (underestimation of model error) or larger (overestimation of model error). A plausible explanation of the aforementioned effects is suggested.

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