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arXiv 2012.04050astro-ph.SRastro-ph.IM
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预测太阳耀斑的活动区磁极性分析

Analysis of magnetic polarities in active regions for the prediction of solar flares

N. Granados Hernández, S. Vargas Domínguez

摘要:

人们对太阳活动区及其活动过程进行了广泛的研究和分析,并对太阳大气中发生的各种喷发事件提出了多种类型的模型和表征。这些区域中最具特点的是那些具有相反磁极的区域,在大多数情况下,这些区域会产生爆炸性事件,如所谓的太阳耀斑。耀斑是发生在太阳大气层中的强烈爆炸,对地球和人类开发的技术产生不利影响,也是所谓空间天气的决定因素。因此,人们试图预测这些事件的发生。在本研究中,我们基于Korsos等人(2014,2015)提出的文章,利用耀斑和双极活动区之间的关系,开发了一个高于M5的太阳耀斑的预测模型。分析考虑到相反极性的本影的面积,其平均磁场,并从每个太阳黑子在该地区的样本的三个活动区的磁重心,以找到由于太阳黑子的演变时间变化,从而证实了以前的结果在文献中报道。我们进行了统计分析,以确定在耀斑发生后,是否会在随后的几个小时内出现另一个耀斑。

英文摘要:

Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the solar atmosphere. The most characteristic of these regions are those that have opposite magnetic polarity, which, in their majority, generate explosive events such as the so-called solar flares. The flares are intense explosions occurring in the solar atmosphere with adverse effects on the Earth and the technology developed by humans, and they are also determining factors in the so-called space weather. For this reason, attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of these events. In the present study, we developed a predictive model of solar flares higher than M5 based on the articles proposed by Korsos, et al. (2014, 2015) using the relationship between the flares and the bipolar active regions. The analysis took into account the areas of the umbrae of opposite polarity, their average magnetic field, and the magnetic barycenter from each sunspot in the region for a sample of three active regions to find the temporal variation due to the evolution of the sunspots, thus confirming previous results reported in the literature. We made a statistical analysis to determine whether after a flare occurs, another can arise in the subsequent hours.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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