根据太阳、恒星、月球和陆地记录，估计极高能太阳事件的频率
Estimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records
摘要：
太阳上最大的爆炸[…]形成了最严重的太空天气风暴原则上，基于SEP的耀斑能量代理记录可以为研究罕见的大事件提供最长的时间基础。我们的结论是，一个建议的代理，硝酸盐浓度在极地冰芯，不可靠地映射到SEP事件。在自然档案中测量的选定放射性核素的浓度可能证明有助于将直接观测的时间间隔延长至1万年，但由于它们对太阳耀斑注量的校准取决于多个知之甚少的属性和过程，因此这些代理目前无法用于帮助确定耀斑能量频率分布。因此，仅限于使用的直接耀斑观测，我们评估的概率大能量的太阳爆炸相结合的太阳耀斑观测恒星耀斑观测合奏。我们的结论是，太阳耀斑能量形成一个相对平滑的分布，从小事件到大耀斑，而耀斑的磁活性，年轻的太阳类恒星的能量和频率显着超过强太阳耀斑，即使在经验缩放与这些恒星的平均活动水平。为了从经验上量化罕见的大太阳耀斑的频率，需要对近太阳年龄的恒星进行广泛的调查，例如开普勒卫星是可行的。由于耀斑大于约X30的可能性仍然不受经验约束，我们提出了间接的论据，根据太阳黑子的记录和统计论据，过去四个世纪的太阳耀斑可能没有大大超过太空时代观察到的最大耀斑的水平，在未来30年内，最多有10%的可能性会发生大于X30的耀斑。
英文摘要：
The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes, these proxies cannot presently be used to help determine the flare energy frequency distribution. Being thus limited to the use of direct flare observations, we evaluate the probabilities of large-energy solar explosions by combining solar flare observations with an ensemble of stellar flare observations. We conclude that solar flare energies form a relatively smooth distribution from small events to large flares, while flares on magnetically-active, young Sun-like stars have energies and frequencies markedly in excess of strong solar flares, even after an empirical scaling with the mean activity level of these stars. In order to empirically quantify the frequency of uncommonly large solar flares extensive surveys of stars of near-solar age need to be obtained, such as is feasible with the Kepler satellite. Because the likelihood of flares larger than approximately X30 remains empirically unconstrained, we present indirect arguments, based on records of sunspots and on statistical arguments, that solar flares in the past four centuries have likely not substantially exceeded the level of the largest flares observed in the space era, and that there is at most about a 10% chance of a flare larger than about X30 in the next 30 years.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
