arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
北美退伍军人节(Veterans Day),12 日无更新
arXiv 2012.03050physics.soc-ph
收藏

杭州城市增长与社会空间动态模型:1964-2010

Modeling Urban Growth and Socio-Spatial Dynamics of Hangzhou: 1964-2010

Jian Feng, Yanguang Chen

摘要:

城市人口密度为理解城市增长和社会空间动态提供了一个很好的视角。基于1964年、1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年5次全国人口普查的分区数据,对杭州市城市增长和人口空间结构进行了分析。研究方法以数学建模和实地调查为基础。模拟结果表明,负指数函数和幂指数函数能较好地拟合杭州市城市密度观测数据。负指数模型反映了城市密度分布的期望状态,而幂指数模型反映了城市密度分布的真实状态。这些模型的参数与人口分布的空间信息熵呈线性相关。在20世纪90年代和21世纪00年代变平的负指数函数中的密度梯度与郊区化的发展密切相关。根据调查资料和模型参数的变化趋势,揭示了杭州城市增长的时空特征。主要结论如下。改革开放和市场经济体制的建立,使杭州的发展模式得到了进一步的完善。一个城市只要有良好的社会经济环境,就会通过自组织自动趋于最优状态。

英文摘要:

Urban population density provides a good perspective for understanding urban growth and socio-spatial dynamics. Based on sub-district data of the five times of national population censuses in 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000, and 2010, this paper is devoted to making analyses of urban growth and the spatial restructuring of population in the city of Hangzhou, China. Research methods are based on mathematical modeling and field investigation. The modeling result shows that the negative exponential function and the power-exponential function can be well fitted to Hangzhou's observational data of urban density. The negative exponential model reflect the expected state, while the power-exponential model reflects the real state of urban density distribution. The parameters of these models are linearly correlated to the spatial information entropy of population distribution. The density gradient in the negative exponential function flattened in the 1990s and 2000s is closely related to the development of suburbanization. In terms of investigation materials and the changing trend of model parameters, we can reveal the spatio-temporal features of Hangzhou's urban growth. The main conclusions can be reached as follows. The policy of reformation and opening-up and the establishment of a market economy improved the development mode of Hangzhou. As long as a city has a good social and economic environment, it will automatically tend to the optimal state through self-organization.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑