Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the electricity production. As most of the solar radiation comes directly from the Sun, current forecasting approaches use its position in the image as a reference to interpret the cloud cover dynamics. However, existing Sun tracking methods rely on external data and a calibration of the camera, which requires access to the device. To address these limitations, this study introduces an image-based Sun tracking algorithm to localise the Sun in the image when it is visible and interpolate its daily trajectory from past observations. We validate the method on a set of sky images collected over a year at SIRTA's lab. Experimental results show that the proposed method provides robust smooth Sun trajectories with a mean absolute error below 1% of the image size.
Kavli IPMU (WPI), University of Tokyo（东京大学卡弗里数物连携宇宙研究机构（世界顶级国际研究中心））
In this work we propose a novel approach to utilize convolutional neural networks for time series forecasting. The time direction of the sequential data with spatial dimensions $D=1,2$ is considered democratically as the input of a spatiotemporal $(D+1)$-dimensional convolutional neural network. Latter then reduces the data stream from $D +1 \to D$ dimensions followed by an incriminator cell which uses this information to forecast the subsequent time step. We empirically compare this strategy to convolutional LSTM's and LSTM's on their performance on the sequential MNIST and the JSB chorals da…
Probabilistic Computing Project Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院概率计算项目）
This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series data. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely varying, non-stationary dynamics. Given a collection of $N$ time series, the Bayesian model first partitions them into independent clusters using a Chinese restaurant process prior. Within a cluster, all time series are modeled jointly using a novel "temporally-reweighted" extension of the Chinese restaurant process mixture. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are…
Temporally Consistent Koopman Autoencoders for Forecasting Dynamical Systems
ElectroScience Laboratory, The Ohio State University（电科学实验室，俄亥俄州立大学）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The Ohio State University（电气与计算机工程系，俄亥俄州立大学）；SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University（斯坦福大学SLAC国家加速器实验室）
We provide a machine learning solution that replaces the traditional methods for deciding the pesticide application time of Sunn Pest. We correlate climate data with phases of Sunn Pest in its life-cycle and decide whether the fields should be sprayed. Our solution includes two groups of prediction models. The first group contains decision trees that predict migration time of Sunn Pest from winter quarters to wheat fields. The second group contains random forest models that predict the nymphal stage percentages of Sunn Pest which is a criterion for pesticide application. We trained our models …
Geomagnetic storms, disturbances of Earth's magnetosphere caused by masses of charged particles being emitted from the Sun, are an uncontrollable threat to modern technology. Notably, they have the potential to damage satellites and cause instability in power grids on Earth, among other disasters. They result from high sun activity, which are induced from cool areas on the Sun known as sunspots. Forecasting the storms to prevent disasters requires an understanding of how and when they will occur. However, current prediction methods at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) …
University of Wollongong（伍伦贡大学）；University of Missouri（密苏里大学）
Integro-difference equation (IDE) models describe the conditional dependence between the spatial process at a future time point and the process at the present time point through an integral operator. Nonlinearity or temporal dependence in the dynamics is often captured by allowing the operator parameters to vary temporally, or by re-fitting a model with a temporally-invariant linear operator in a sliding window. Both procedures tend to be excellent for prediction purposes over small time horizons, but are generally time-consuming and, crucially, do not provide a global prior model for the temp…
Accurate mobile traffic forecast is important for efficient network planning and operations. However, existing traffic forecasting models have high complexity, making the forecasting process slow and costly. In this paper, we analyze some characteristics of mobile traffic such as periodicity, spatial similarity and short term relativity. Based on these characteristics, we propose a \emph{Block Regression} ({BR}) model for mobile traffic forecasting. This model employs seasonal differentiation so as to take into account of the temporally repetitive nature of mobile traffic. One of the key featu…
Predicting traffic conditions is tremendously challenging since every road is highly dependent on each other, both spatially and temporally. Recently, to capture this spatial and temporal dependency, specially designed architectures such as graph convolutional networks and temporal convolutional networks have been introduced. While there has been remarkable progress in traffic forecasting, we found that deep-learning-based traffic forecasting models still fail in certain patterns, mainly in event situations (e.g., rapid speed drops). Although it is commonly accepted that these failures are due…
This paper addresses the problem of time series forecasting for non-stationary signals and multiple future steps prediction. To handle this challenging task, we introduce DILATE (DIstortion Loss including shApe and TimE), a new objective function for training deep neural networks. DILATE aims at accurately predicting sudden changes, and explicitly incorporates two terms supporting precise shape and temporal change detection. We introduce a differentiable loss function suitable for training deep neural nets, and provide a custom back-prop implementation for speeding up optimization. We also int…
Multi-spatial Multi-temporal Air Quality Forecasting with Integrated Monitoring and Reanalysis Data
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；Ningbo Institute of Digital Twin, Eastern Institute of Technology（东方理工高等研究院宁波数字孪生研究院）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Mälardalens University（梅拉达伦大学）
Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学）；NVIDIA（英伟达）
Data-driven models, such as FourCastNet (FCN), have shown exemplary performance in high-resolution global weather forecasting. This performance, however, is based on supervision on mesh-gridded weather data without the utilization of raw climate observational data, the gold standard ground truth. In this work we develop a methodology to correct, remap, and fine-tune gridded uniform forecasts of FCN so it can be directly compared against observational ground truth, which is sparse and non-uniform in space and time. This is akin to bias correction and post-processing of numerical weather predict…
Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR China（香港科技大学计算机科学与工程系）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China（南方科技大学计算机科学与工程系）；School of Computer and Information Sciences, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia（新castle大学计算机与信息科学学院）；Hangzhou Innovation Institute of Beihang University, Hangzhou, China（北京航空航天大学杭州创新研究院）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, China（上海人工智能实验室）
Sorbonne Université（索邦大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Criteo AI Lab（Criteo人工智能实验室）
Effective data-driven PDE forecasting methods often rely on fixed spatial and / or temporal discretizations. This raises limitations in real-world applications like weather prediction where flexible extrapolation at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations is required. We address this problem by introducing a new data-driven approach, DINo, that models a PDE's flow with continuous-time dynamics of spatially continuous functions. This is achieved by embedding spatial observations independently of their discretization via Implicit Neural Representations in a small latent space temporally driven by a l…
Due to the limitation of data availability, traditional power load forecasting methods focus more on studying the load variation pattern and the influence of only a few factors such as temperature and holidays, which fail to reveal the inner mechanism of load variation. This paper breaks the limitation and collects 80 potential features from astronomy, geography, and society to study the complex nexus between power load variation and influence factors, based on which a short-term power load forecasting method is proposed. Case studies show that, compared with the state-of-the-art methods, the …
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Reading（雷丁大学）；IUCAA（校际天文学与天体物理学中心）；University of New Hampshire（新罕布什尔大学）；NVIDIA Corporation（英伟达公司）；ASTRA LLC（ASTRA有限责任公司）；Lockheed Martin（洛克希德·马丁公司）；SRI International（SRI国际研究所）
Modeling and forecasting the solar wind-driven global magnetic field perturbations is an open challenge. Current approaches depend on simulations of computationally demanding models like the Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model or sampling spatially and temporally through sparse ground-based stations (SuperMAG). In this paper, we develop a Deep Learning model that forecasts in Spherical Harmonics space 2, replacing reliance on MHD models and providing global coverage at one minute cadence, improving over the current state-of-the-art which relies on feature engineering. We evaluate the performance …
Improving the forecast accuracy of wind power by leveraging multiple hierarchical structure
Lucas English School of Mathematics and Physics The University of Queensland St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia（Lucas English 数学与物理学院 昆士兰大学 斯塔 Lucia 分校）；Mahdi Abolghasemi School of Mathematics and Physics The University of Queensland St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia（Mahdi Abolghasemi 数学与物理学院 昆士兰大学 斯塔 Lucia 分校）
Mobile crowdsourcing has become easier thanks to the widespread of smartphones capable of seamlessly collecting and pushing the desired data to cloud services. However, the success of mobile crowdsourcing relies on balancing the supply and demand by first accurately forecasting spatially and temporally the supply-demand gap, and then providing efficient incentives to encourage participant movements to maintain the desired balance. In this paper, we propose Deep-Gap, a deep learning approach based on residual learning to predict the gap between mobile crowdsourced service supply and demand at a…
IndexNet: Timestamp and Variable-Aware Modeling for Time Series Forecasting
Shanghai Academy of AI for Science（上海人工智能科学研究院）；Fudan University（复旦大学）；Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School（清华大学深圳国际研究生院）；Northeastern University（东北大学）
University of Corsica（科西嘉大学）；Castelluccio Hospital（卡斯泰卢乔医院）
The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. While ANN by its non-linear nature is effective to predict cloudy days, ARMA techniques are more dedicated to sunny days without cloud occurrences. Thus, three hybrids models are suggested: the first proposes simply to use ARMA for 6 months in spring and summer and to use an …
The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Amazon Lab126（亚马逊Lab126）；Accuweather Inc.（Accuweather公司）；University of Almería（阿尔梅里亚大学）
Meteorologists use shapes and movements of clouds in satellite images as indicators of several major types of severe storms. Satellite imaginary data are in increasingly higher resolution, both spatially and temporally, making it impossible for humans to fully leverage the data in their forecast. Automatic satellite imagery analysis methods that can find storm-related cloud patterns as soon as they are detectable are in demand. We propose a machine learning and pattern recognition based approach to detect "comma-shaped" clouds in satellite images, which are specific cloud distribution patterns…
The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Facebook AI Research（Facebook人工智能研究院）
The evolution of clothing styles and their migration across the world is intriguing, yet difficult to describe quantitatively. We propose to discover and quantify fashion influences from everyday images of people wearing clothes. We introduce an approach that detects which cities influence which other cities in terms of propagating their styles. We then leverage the discovered influence patterns to inform a forecasting model that predicts the popularity of any given style at any given city into the future. Demonstrating our idea with GeoStyle---a large-scale dataset of 7.7M images covering 44 …
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；ENGIE Lab CRIGEN（昂吉集团CRIGEN实验室）
A number of industrial applications, such as smart grids, power plant operation, hybrid system management or energy trading, could benefit from improved short-term solar forecasting, addressing the intermittent energy production from solar panels. However, current approaches to modelling the cloud cover dynamics from sky images still lack precision regarding the spatial configuration of clouds, their temporal dynamics and physical interactions with solar radiation. Benefiting from a growing number of large datasets, data driven methods are being developed to address these limitations with prom…
