Jointly forecasting trajectories of multiple interacting agents is a core challenge in sports analytics and other domains involving complex group dynamics. Accurate prediction enables realistic simulation and strategic understanding of gameplay evolution. Most existing models are evaluated solely on per-agent accuracy metrics (minADE, minFDE), which assess each agent independently on its best-of-k prediction. However these metrics overlook whether the model learns which predicted trajectories can jointly form a plausible multi-agent future. Many state-of-the-art models are designed and optimized primarily based on these metrics. As a result, they may underperform on joint predictions and also fail to generate coherent, interpretable multi-agent scenarios in team sports. We propose CausalTraj, a temporally causal, likelihood-based model that is built to generate jointly probable multi-agent trajectory forecasts. To better assess collective modeling capability, we emphasize joint metrics (minJADE, minJFDE) that measure joint accuracy across agents within the best generated scenario sample. Evaluated on the NBA SportVU, Basketball-U, and Football-U datasets, CausalTraj achieves competitive per-agent accuracy and the best recorded results on joint metrics, while yielding qualitatively coherent and realistic gameplay evolutions.
Like many team sports, basketball involves two groups of players who engage in collaborative and adversarial activities to win a game. Players and teams are executing various complex strategies to gain an advantage over their opponents. Defining, identifying, and analyzing different types of activities is an important task in sports analytics, as it can lead to better strategies and decisions by the players and coaching staff. The objective of this paper is to automatically recognize basketball group activities from tracking data representing locations of players and the ball during a game. We…
University of Johannesburg（约翰内斯堡大学）；Institute for Intelligent Systems（智能系统研究所）
Sports data is more readily available and consequently, there has been an increase in the amount of sports analysis, predictions and rankings in the literature. Sports are unique in their respective stochastic nature, making analysis, and accurate predictions valuable to those involved in the sport. In response, we focus on Siamese Neural Networks (SNN) in unison with LightGBM and XGBoost models, to predict the importance of matches and to rank teams in Rugby and Basketball. Six models were developed and compared, a LightGBM, a XGBoost, a LightGBM (Contrastive Loss), LightGBM (Triplet Loss), a…
The evolution of digital technology and the increasing popularity of sports inspired the innovators to take the experience of users with a proclivity towards sports to a whole new different level, by introducing Fantasy Sports Platforms FSPs. The application of Data Science and Analytics is Ubiquitous in the Modern World. Data Science and Analytics open doors to gain a deeper understanding and help in the decision making process. We firmly believed that we could adopt Data Science to predict the winning fantasy cricket team on the FSP, Dream 11. We built a predictive model that predicts the pe…
Nagoya Institute of Technology（名古屋工业大学）；Massey University（梅西大学）
Over the past two decades, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been increasingly utilized for the purpose of predicting outcomes in sport. In this paper, we provide a review of studies that have used ML for predicting results in team sport, covering studies from 1996 to 2019. We sought to answer five key research questions while extensively surveying papers in this field. This paper offers insights into which ML algorithms have tended to be used in this field, as well as those that are beginning to emerge with successful outcomes. Our research highlights defining characteristics of successfu…
RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project（理化学研究所革新智能统合研究中心）；Nagoya University（名古屋大学）；Nagoya Institute of Technology（名古屋工业大学）
Given a set of sequences comprised of time-ordered events, sequential pattern mining is useful to identify frequent subsequences from different sequences or within the same sequence. However, in sport, these techniques cannot determine the importance of particular patterns of play to good or bad outcomes, which is often of greater interest to coaches and performance analysts. In this study, we apply a recently proposed supervised sequential pattern mining algorithm called safe pattern pruning (SPP) to 490 labelled event sequences representing passages of play from one rugby team's matches from…
In recent years, reinforcement learning has been successful in solving video games from Atari to Star Craft II. However, the end-to-end model-free reinforcement learning (RL) is not sample efficient and requires a significant amount of computational resources to achieve superhuman level performance. Model-free RL is also unlikely to produce human-like agents for playtesting and gameplaying AI in the development cycle of complex video games. In this paper, we present a hierarchical approach to training agents with the goal of achieving human-like style and high skill level in team sports games.…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of skill. This indicates the relative presence of luck and skill. We collected and analyzed all games from 198 sports leagues comprising 1503 seasons from 84 countries of 4 different sports: basketball, soccer, volleyball and handball. We measured the competitiveness by countries and sports. We also identify in each season which teams, if removed from its leag…
Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani（比尔拉理工学院）
Sports data has become widely available in the recent past. With the improvement of machine learning techniques, there have been attempts to use sports data to analyze not only the outcome of individual games but also to improve insights and strategies. The outbreak of COVID-19 has interrupted sports leagues globally, giving rise to increasing questions and speculations about the outcome of this season's leagues. What if the season was not interrupted and concluded normally? Which teams would end up winning trophies? Which players would perform the best? Which team would end their season on a …
Sophisticated trajectory prediction models that effectively mimic team dynamics have many potential uses for sports coaches, broadcasters and spectators. However, through experiments on soccer data we found that it can be surprisingly challenging to train a deep learning model for player trajectory prediction which outperforms linear extrapolation on average distance between predicted and true future trajectories. We propose and test a novel method for improving training by predicting a sparse trajectory and interpolating using constant acceleration, which improves performance for several mode…
In team-based invasion sports such as soccer and basketball, analytics is important for teams to understand their performance and for audiences to understand matches better. The present work focuses on performing visual analytics to evaluate the value of any kind of event occurring in a sports match with a continuous parameter space. Here, the continuous parameter space involves the time, location, score, and other parameters. Because the spatiotemporal data used in such analytics is a low-level representation and has a very large size, however, traditional analytics may need to discretize the…
The North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics（北卡罗来纳科学与数学学院）
Our objective is to find the five best college sports coaches of past century for three different sports. We decided to look at men's basketball, football, and baseball. We wanted to use an approach that could definitively determine team skill from the games played, and then use a machine-learning algorithm to calculate the correct coach skills for each team in a given year. We created a networks-based model to calculate team skill from historical game data. A digraph was created for each year in each sport. Nodes represented teams, and edges represented a game played between two teams. The ar…
Machine Learning has become an integral part of engineering design and decision making in several domains, including sports. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been the state-of-the-art methods for predicting outcomes of professional sports events. However, apart from getting highly accurate predictions on these sports events outcomes, it is necessary to answer questions such as "Why did the model predict that Team A would win Match X against Team B?" DNNs are inherently black-box in nature. Therefore, it is required to provide high-quality interpretable, and understandable explanations for a mo…
This work investigates the problem of multi-agents trajectory prediction. Prior approaches lack of capability of capturing fine-grained dependencies among coordinated agents. In this paper, we propose a spatial-temporal trajectory prediction approach that is able to learn the strategy of a team with multiple coordinated agents. In particular, we use graph-based attention model to learn the dependency of the agents. In addition, instead of utilizing the recurrent networks (e.g., VRNN, LSTM), our method uses a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) as the sequential model to support long effective…
The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Shanghai AI Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）
To accurately predict trajectories in multi-agent settings, e.g. team games, it is important to effectively model the interactions among agents. Whereas a number of methods have been developed for this purpose, existing methods implicitly model these interactions as part of the deep net architecture. However, in the real world, interactions often exist at multiple levels, e.g. individuals may form groups, where interactions among groups and those among the individuals in the same group often follow significantly different patterns. In this paper, we present a novel formulation for multi-agent …
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Electronic Arts（美国艺电）；EA Digital Platform, Data & AI（艺电数字平台数据与人工智能部门）
Human players in professional team sports achieve high level coordination by dynamically choosing complementary skills and executing primitive actions to perform these skills. As a step toward creating intelligent agents with this capability for fully cooperative multi-agent settings, we propose a two-level hierarchical multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithm with unsupervised skill discovery. Agents learn useful and distinct skills at the low level via independent Q-learning, while they learn to select complementary latent skill variables at the high level via centralized multi-ag…
Indian Institute of Technology Madras（马德拉斯印度理工学院）；American Express（美国运通公司）
As the technology advances, an ample amount of data is collected in sports with the help of advanced sensors. Sports Analytics is the study of this data to provide a constructive advantage to the team and its players. The game of international cricket is popular all across the globe. Recently, various machine learning techniques have been used to analyse the cricket match data and predict the match outcome as win or lose. Generally these models make use of the overall match level statistics such as teams, venue, average run rate, win margin, etc to predict the match results before the beginnin…
