技术知识的累积程度如何？
How cumulative is technological knowledge?
摘要：
技术累积性被认为是技术进步的主要机制之一，但其确切含义和动态往往尚不清楚。为了更好地理解这种机制，我们将技术视为由相互关联的发明组成的知识体系。技术累积性可以理解为发明在同一知识体系内建立在其他发明基础上的程度。因此，一项技术的累积性以其知识库的结构为特征，这一结构不同于其知识库的规模，但与之密切相关。我们解析推导方程描述的累积性和知识库的大小之间的关系。此外，我们还使用专利数据对一些选定技术的想法进行了实证测试。我们的研究结果表明，累积性与知识库的大小成比例地增加，在不同的技术之间有很大的差异。与此同时，我们发现，随着时间的推移，这种速度与发明的速度呈负相关。这表明，在快速发展的技术中，累积性增加相对缓慢。总之，所提出的方法允许在一个深入的，系统的分析累积性变化的技术和知识动态技术发展的基础。
英文摘要：
Technological cumulativeness is considered one of the main mechanisms for technological progress, yet its exact meaning and dynamics often remain unclear. To develop a better understanding of this mechanism we approach a technology as a body of knowledge consisting of interlinked inventions. Technological cumulativeness can then be understood as the extent to which inventions build on other inventions within that same body of knowledge. The cumulativeness of a technology is therefore characterized by the structure of its knowledge base, which is different from, but closely related to, the size of its knowledge base. We analytically derive equations describing the relation between the cumulativeness and the size of the knowledge base. In addition, we empirically test our ideas for a number of selected technologies, using patent data. Our results suggest that cumulativeness increases proportionally with the size of the knowledge base, at a rate which varies considerably across technologies. At the same time we find that across technologies, this rate is inversely related to the rate of invention over time. This suggests that the cumulativeness increases relatively slow in rapidly growing technologies. In sum, the presented approach allows for an in-depth, systematic analysis of cumulativeness variations across technologies and the knowledge dynamics underlying technology development.
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