We study a stochastic SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic dynamics on network, under the effect of a Markovian regime-switching. We first prove the existence of a unique global positive solution, and find a positive invariant set for the system. Then, we find sufficient conditions for a.s. extinction and stochastic permanence, showing also their relation with the stationary probability distribution of the Markov chain that governs the switching and with the network topology. We provide an asymptotic lower bound for the time average of the sample-path solution under the conditions ensuring stochastic permanence. From this bound, we are able to prove the existence of an invariant probability measure if the condition of stochastic permanence holds. Under a different condition, we prove the positive recurrence and the ergodicity of the regime-switching diffusion.
Heterogeneous Markovian Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemics with a general infection rate matrix $\widetilde{A}$ are considered. Using a non-negative matrix factorization to approximate $\widetilde{A}$, we are able to identify when a metastable state can be expected, and that the metastable distribution, under certain conditions, will feature a normal distribution with known expectation and covariance. Furthermore, we model a heterogeneous Markovian SIS epidemic, that starts with a fraction of initially infected nodes different from that in the metastable state, by approximating i…
This paper is concerned with a class of stochastic differential equations with Markovian switching. The Malliavin calculus is used to study the smoothness of the density of the solution under a Hörmander type condition. Furthermore, we obtain a Bismut type formula which is used to establish the strong Feller property.
In this paper we consider a class of stochastic differential equations driven by subordinate Brownian motion with Markovian switching. We use Malliavin calculus to study the smoothness of the density for the solution under uniform Hörmander's type condition.
Focusing on stochastic systems arising in mean-field models, the systems under consideration belong to the class of switching diffusions, in which continuous dynamics and discrete events coexist and interact. The discrete events are modeled by a continuous-time Markov chain. Different from the usual switching diffusions, the systems include mean-field interactions. Our effort is devoted to obtaining laws of large numbers for the underlying systems. One of the distinct features of the paper is the limit of the empirical measures is not deterministic but a random measure depending on the history…
Although viral spreading processes taking place in networks are often analyzed using Markovian models in which both the transmission and the recovery times follow exponential distributions, empirical studies show that, in many real scenarios, the distribution of these times are not necessarily exponential. To overcome this limitation, we first introduce a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) spreading model that allows transmission and recovery times to follow phase-type distributions. In this context, we derive a lower bound on the exponential decay rate towards the infection-fr…
This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of processes with switching. More precisely, the stability under fast switching for diffusion processes and discrete state space Markovian processes is considered. The proofs are based on semimartingale techniques, so that no Markovian assumption for the modulating process is needed.
Understanding models which represent the invasion of network-based systems by infectious agents can give important insights into many real-world situations, including the prevention and control of infectious diseases and computer viruses. Here we consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on finite strongly connected networks, applicable to several sexually transmitted diseases and computer viruses. In this context, a theoretical definition of endemic prevalence is easily obtained via the quasi-stationary distribution (QSD). By representing the model as a percolation …
In this paper, we investigate the open-loop and weak closed-loop solvabilities of stochastic linear quadratic (LQ, for short) optimal control problem of Markovian regime switching system. Interestingly, these two solvabilities are equivalent. We first provide an alternative characterization of the open-loop solvability of the LQ problem using the perturbation approach. Then, we study the weak closed-loop solvability of the LQ problem of Markovian regime switching system, and establish the equivalent relationship between open-loop and weak closed-loop solvabilities. Finally, we present an examp…
Most of the published articles on random motions have been devoted to the study of the telegraph process or its generalizations that describe the random motion in $R^n$ of a single particle in a Markov or semi-Markov medium. However, up to our best knowledge there are no published papers dealing with the interaction of two or more particles which move according to the telegraph processes. In this paper, we construct the system of telegraph processes with interactions, which can be interpreted as a model of ideal gas. In this model, we investigate the free path times of a family of particles be…
An explicit Milstein-type scheme for stochastic differential equation with Markovian switching is derived and its strong convergence in $\mathcal{L}^2$-sense is established without using Itô-Taylor expansion formula. Rate of strong convergence is shown to be equal to $1.0$ under the assumptions that coefficients satisfy mild regularity conditions. More precisely, coefficients are assumed to be only once differentiable which are more relaxed conditions than those made in existing literature.
The paper is dedicated to studying the problem of existence and uniqueness of solutions as well as existence of and exponential convergence to invariant measures for McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations with Markovian switching. Since the coefficients are only locally Lipschitz, we need to truncate them both in space and distribution variables simultaneously to get the global existence of solutions under the Lyapunov condition. Furthermore, if the Lyapunov condition is strengthened, we establish the exponential convergence of solutions' distributions to the unique invariant measure …
We propose a new tamed Milstein-type scheme for stochastic differential equation with Markovian switching when drift coefficient is assumed to grow super-linearly. The strong rate of convergence is shown to be equal to $1.0$ under mild regularity (e.g. once differentiability) requirements on drift and diffusion coefficients. Novel techniques are developed to tackle two-fold difficulties arising due to jumps of the Markov chain and the reduction of regularity requirements on the coefficients.
The existence and uniqueness of the numerical invariant measure of the backward Euler-Maruyama method for stochastic differential equations with Markovian switching is yielded, and it is revealed that the numerical invariant measure converges to the underlying invariant measure in the Wasserstein metric. Under the polynomial growth condition of drift term the convergence rate is estimated. The global Lipschitz condition on the drift coefficients required by Bao et al., 2016 and Yuan et al., 2005 is released. Several examples and numerical experiments are given to verify our theory.
The aim of this paper is to study the dynamical behavior of non-autonomous stochastic lattice systems with Markovian switching. We first show existence of an evolution system of measures of the stochastic system. We then study the pullback (or forward) asymptotic stability in distribution of the evolution system of measures. We finally prove that any limit point of a tight sequence of an evolution system of measures of the stochastic lattice systems must be an evolution system of measures of the corresponding limiting system as the intensity of noise converges zero. In particular, when the coe…
Cator and Van Mieghem [Cator E, Van Mieghem P., Phys. Rev. E 89, 052802 (2014)] stated that the correlation of infection at the same time between any pair of nodes in a network is non-negative for the Markovian SIS and SIR epidemic models. The arguments used to obtain this result rely strongly on the graphical construction of the stochastic process, as well as the FKG inequality. In this note we show that although the approach used by the authors applies to the SIS model, it cannot be used for the SIR model as stated in their work. In particular, we observe that monotonicity in the process is …
We study non-Markovian stochastic epidemic models (SIS, SIR, SIRS, and SEIR), in which the infectious (and latent/exposing, immune) periods have a general distribution. We provide a representation of the evolution dynamics using the time epochs of infection (and latency/exposure, immunity). Taking the limit as the size of the population tends to infinity, we prove both a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the processes of interest in these models. In the FLLN, the limits are a unique solution to a system of deterministic Volterra integral eq…
Non-Markovian processes are widespread in natural and human-made systems, yet explicit model- ling and analysis of such systems is underdeveloped. We consider a non-Markovian dynamic network with random link activation and deletion (RLAD) and heavy tailed Mittag-Leffler distribution for the inter-event times. We derive an analytically and computationally tractable system of Kolmogorov- like forward equations utilising the Caputo derivative for the probability of having a given number of active links in the network and solve them. Simulations for the RLAD are also studied for power-law inter-ev…
The replicator-mutator dynamic was originally derived to model the evolution of language, and since the model was derived in such a general manner, it has been applied to the dynamics of social behavior and decision making in multi-agent networks. For the two type population, a bifurcation point of the mutation rate is derived, displaying different long-run behaviors above and below this point. The long-run behavior would naturally be subjected to noise from the environment, however, to date there does not exist a model that dynamically accounts for the effects of the environment. To account f…
Regime switching processes have proved to be indispensable in the modeling of various phenomena, allowing model parameters that traditionally were considered to be constant to fluctuate in a Markovian manner in line with empirical findings. We study diffusion processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type where the drift and diffusion coefficients $a$ and $b$ are functions of a Markov process with a stationary distribution $π$ on a countable state space. Exact long time behavior is determined for the three regimes corresponding to the expected drift: $E_πa(\cdot)>0,=0,<0$, respectively. Alongside we pro…
We propose a new approximation framework that unifies and generalizes a number of existing mean-field approximation methods for the SIS epidemic model on complex networks. We derive the framework, which we call the Universal Mean-Field Framework (UMFF), as a set of approximations of the exact Markovian SIS equations. Our main novelty is that we describe the mean-field approximations from the perspective of the isoperimetric problem, an insight which results in bounds on the UMFF approximation error. These new bounds provide insight in the accuracy of existing mean-field methods, such as the wi…
Multidimensional indefinite stochastic Riccati equations and zero-sum stochastic linear-quadratic differential games with non-Markovian regime switching
Evaluating the Impact of Epidemic Control via State-Dependent Markovian Switching Modeling
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens（雅典国立卡波季斯特里安大学）；Université de Lorraine（洛林大学）；CentraleSupélec, Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷大学中央理工-高等师范学院）
The coefficients of the stochastic differential equations with Markovian switching (SDEwMS) additionally depend on a Markov chain and there is no notion of differentiating such functions with respect to the Markov chain. In particular, this implies that the Itô-Taylor expansion for SDEwMS is not a straightforward extension of the Itô-Taylor expansion for stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Further, higher-order numerical schemes for SDEwMS are not available in the literature, perhaps because of the absence of the Itô-Taylor expansion. In this article, first, we overcome these challenges …
In this paper we show existence and uniqueness of a solution for a system of m variational partial differential inequalities with inter-connected obstacles. This system is the deterministic version of the Verification Theorem of the Markovian optimal m-states switching problem. The switching cost functions are arbitrary. This problem is in relation with the valuation of firms in a financial market.
Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are time-varying and their dynamics are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain. A distinctive feature of the algorithms is the multi-time-scale framework for characterizing parameter varia- tions and algorithm updating speeds. This is realized by considering the stepsize of the estimation algorithms and a scaling parameter that defines the transition rates of the …
In this paper, we investigate a class of hybrid stochastic heat equations. By explicit formulae of solutions, we not only reveal the sample Lyapunov exponents but also discuss the $p$th moment Lyapnov exponents. Moreover, several examples are established to demonstrate that unstable (deterministic or stochastic) dynamical systems can be stabilized by Markovian switching.
We solve non-Markovian optimal switching problems in discrete time on an infinite horizon, when the decision maker is risk aware and the filtration is general, and establish existence and uniqueness of solutions for the associated reflected backward stochastic difference equations. An example application to hydropower planning is provided.
In this paper, we study existence and uniqueness to multidimensional Reflected Backward Stochastic Differential Equation in an open convex domain, allowing for oblique directions of reflection. In a Markovian framework, combining \emph{a priori} estimates for penalised equations and compactness arguments, we obtain existence results under quite weak assumptions on the driver of the BSDEs and the direction of reflection, which is allowed to depend on both $Y$ and $Z$. In a non Markovian framework, we obtain existence and uniqueness result for direction of reflection depending on time and $Y$. W…
We address a general optimal switching problem over finite horizon for a stochastic system described by a differential equation driven by Brownian motion. The main novelty is the fact that we allow for infinitely many modes (or regimes, i.e. the possible values of the piecewise-constant control process). We allow all the given coefficients in the model to be path-dependent, that is, their value at any time depends on the past trajectory of the controlled system. The main aim is to introduce a suitable (scalar) backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE), with a constraint on the martingal…
