We study the online restless bandit problem, where the state of each arm evolves according to a Markov chain, and the reward of pulling an arm depends on both the pulled arm and the current state of the corresponding Markov chain. In this paper, we propose Restless-UCB, a learning policy that follows the explore-then-commit framework. In Restless-UCB, we present a novel method to construct offline instances, which only requires $O(N)$ time-complexity ($N$ is the number of arms) and is exponentially better than the complexity of existing learning policy. We also prove that Restless-UCB achieves a regret upper bound of $\tilde{O}((N+M^3)T^{2\over 3})$, where $M$ is the Markov chain state space size and $T$ is the time horizon. Compared to existing algorithms, our result eliminates the exponential factor (in $M,N$) in the regret upper bound, due to a novel exploitation of the sparsity in transitions in general restless bandit problems. As a result, our analysis technique can also be adopted to tighten the regret bounds of existing algorithms. Finally, we conduct experiments based on real-world dataset, to compare the Restless-UCB policy with state-of-the-art benchmarks. Our results show that Restless-UCB outperforms existing algorithms in regret, and significantly reduces the running time.
MARBLE: Multi-Armed Restless Bandits in Latent Markovian Environment
Department of Computer and Systems Sciences (DSV), Stockholm University（斯德哥尔摩大学计算机与系统科学系）；Inria Sophia Antipolis（法国国家信息与自动化研究所索菲亚·安蒂波利斯研究中心）；Smartprofile（Smartprofile公司）
We introduce robustness in \textit{restless multi-armed bandits} (RMABs), a popular model for constrained resource allocation among independent stochastic processes (arms). Nearly all RMAB techniques assume stochastic dynamics are precisely known. However, in many real-world settings, dynamics are estimated with significant \emph{uncertainty}, e.g., via historical data, which can lead to bad outcomes if ignored. To address this, we develop an algorithm to compute minimax regret -- robust policies for RMABs. Our approach uses a double oracle framework (oracles for \textit{agent} and \textit{nat…
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；University of Southern California（南加利福尼亚大学）；Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学）
Motivated by a broad class of mobile intervention problems, we propose and study restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) with network effects. In our model, arms are partially recharging and connected through a graph, so that pulling one arm also improves the state of neighboring arms, significantly extending the previously studied setting of fully recharging bandits with no network effects. In mobile interventions, network effects may arise due to regular population movements (such as commuting between home and work). We show that network effects in RMABs induce strong reward coupling that is no…
Restless Multi-Armed Bandits (RMAB) is an apt model to represent decision-making problems in public health interventions (e.g., tuberculosis, maternal, and child care), anti-poaching planning, sensor monitoring, personalized recommendations and many more. Existing research in RMAB has contributed mechanisms and theoretical results to a wide variety of settings, where the focus is on maximizing expected value. In this paper, we are interested in ensuring that RMAB decision making is also fair to different arms while maximizing expected value. In the context of public health settings, this would…
Whittle index policy is a powerful tool to obtain asymptotically optimal solutions for the notoriously intractable problem of restless bandits. However, finding the Whittle indices remains a difficult problem for many practical restless bandits with convoluted transition kernels. This paper proposes NeurWIN, a neural Whittle index network that seeks to learn the Whittle indices for any restless bandits by leveraging mathematical properties of the Whittle indices. We show that a neural network that produces the Whittle index is also one that produces the optimal control for a set of Markov deci…
Optimal Control of Fluid Restless Multi-armed Bandits: A Machine Learning Approach
Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院）；Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院运筹学中心）；Departamento de Estadı́stica, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（马德里卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼查大学统计系）
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
In this paper we consider the problem of learning the optimal policy for uncontrolled restless bandit problems. In an uncontrolled restless bandit problem, there is a finite set of arms, each of which when pulled yields a positive reward. There is a player who sequentially selects one of the arms at each time step. The goal of the player is to maximize its undiscounted reward over a time horizon T. The reward process of each arm is a finite state Markov chain, whose transition probabilities are unknown by the player. State transitions of each arm is independent of the selection of the player. …
In this paper we study the online learning problem involving rested and restless multiarmed bandits with multiple plays. The system consists of a single player/user and a set of K finite-state discrete-time Markov chains (arms) with unknown state spaces and statistics. At each time step the player can play M arms. The objective of the user is to decide for each step which M of the K arms to play over a sequence of trials so as to maximize its long term reward. The restless multiarmed bandit is particularly relevant to the application of opportunistic spectrum access (OSA), where a (secondary) …
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Criteo AI Lab（科韬人工智能实验室）
Restless bandit problems assume time-varying reward distributions of the arms, which adds flexibility to the model but makes the analysis more challenging. We study learning algorithms over the unknown reward distributions and prove a sub-linear, $O(\sqrt{T}\log T)$, regret bound for a variant of Thompson sampling. Our analysis applies in the infinite time horizon setting, resolving the open question raised by Jung and Tewari (2019) whose analysis is limited to the episodic case. We adopt their policy mapping framework, which allows our algorithm to be efficient and simultaneously keeps the re…
GINO-Q: Learning an Asymptotically Optimal Index Policy for Restless Multi-armed Bandits
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院伦敦分校电子与电气工程系）；Department of Information Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学信息工程系）
Criteo AI Lab（Criteo人工智能实验室）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；NYU Center for Data Science（纽约大学数据科学中心）；Univ. Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Grenoble INP（格勒诺布尔理工学院）
In this paper, we tackle the computational efficiency of kernelized UCB algorithms in contextual bandits. While standard methods require a O(CT^3) complexity where T is the horizon and the constant C is related to optimizing the UCB rule, we propose an efficient contextual algorithm for large-scale problems. Specifically, our method relies on incremental Nystrom approximations of the joint kernel embedding of contexts and actions. This allows us to achieve a complexity of O(CTm^2) where m is the number of Nystrom points. To recover the same regret as the standard kernelized UCB algorithm, m ne…
Restless multi-armed bandits are often used to model budget-constrained resource allocation tasks where receipt of the resource is associated with an increased probability of a favorable state transition. Prior work assumes that individual arms only benefit if they receive the resource directly. However, many allocation tasks occur within communities and can be characterized by positive externalities that allow arms to derive partial benefit when their neighbor(s) receive the resource. We thus introduce networked restless bandits, a novel multi-armed bandit setting in which arms are both restl…
Robert Bosch Centre for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence（罗伯特·博世数据科学与人工智能中心）；IIT Madras（印度理工学院马德拉斯分校）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）；ARMMAN
India has a maternal mortality ratio of 113 and child mortality ratio of 2830 per 100,000 live births. Lack of access to preventive care information is a major contributing factor for these deaths, especially in low resource households. We partner with ARMMAN, a non-profit based in India employing a call-based information program to disseminate health-related information to pregnant women and women with recent child deliveries. We analyze call records of over 300,000 women registered in the program created by ARMMAN and try to identify women who might not engage with these call programs that a…
Lagrangian Relaxation for Multi-Action Partially Observable Restless Bandits: Heuristic Policies and Indexability
Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras（印度理工学院马德拉斯分校电子工程系）；Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Ottawa（渥太华大学电子工程与计算机科学系）
We consider multi-dimensional Markov decision processes and formulate a long term discounted reward optimization problem. Two simulation based algorithms---Monte Carlo rollout policy and parallel rollout policy are studied, and various properties for these policies are discussed. We next consider a restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) with multi-dimensional state space and multi-actions bandit model. A standard RMAB consists of two actions for each arms whereas in multi-actions RMAB, there are more that two actions for each arms. A popular approach for RMAB is Whittle index based heuristic polic…
A classic setting of the stochastic K-armed bandit problem is considered in this note. In this problem it has been known that KL-UCB policy achieves the asymptotically optimal regret bound and KL-UCB+ policy empirically performs better than the KL-UCB policy although the regret bound for the original form of the KL-UCB+ policy has been unknown. This note demonstrates that a simple proof of the asymptotic optimality of the KL-UCB+ policy can be given by the same technique as those used for analyses of other known policies.
Restless multi-armed bandits with partially observable states has applications in communication systems, age of information and recommendation systems. In this paper, we study multi-state partially observable restless bandit models. We consider three different models based on information observable to decision maker -- 1) no information is observable from actions of a bandit 2) perfect information from bandit is observable only for one action on bandit, there is a fixed restart state, i.e., transition occurs from all other states to that state 3) perfect state information is available to decis…
Indian Institute of Technology Madras（印度理工学院马德拉斯分校）
In this paper we propose the Augmented-UCB (AugUCB) algorithm for a fixed-budget version of the thresholding bandit problem (TBP), where the objective is to identify a set of arms whose quality is above a threshold. A key feature of AugUCB is that it uses both mean and variance estimates to eliminate arms that have been sufficiently explored; to the best of our knowledge this is the first algorithm to employ such an approach for the considered TBP. Theoretically, we obtain an upper bound on the loss (probability of mis-classification) incurred by AugUCB. Although UCBEV in literature provides a…
UC San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；West Virginia University（西弗吉尼亚大学）
We propose a novel modification of the standard upper confidence bound (UCB) method for the stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem which tunes the confidence bound of a given bandit based on its distance to others. Our UCB distance tuning (UCB-DT) formulation enables improved performance as measured by expected regret by preventing the MAB algorithm from focusing on non-optimal bandits which is a well-known deficiency of standard UCB. "Distance tuning" of the standard UCB is done using a proposed distance measure, which we call bandit distance, that is parameterizable and which therefore …
I present the first algorithm for stochastic finite-armed bandits that simultaneously enjoys order-optimal problem-dependent regret and worst-case regret. Besides the theoretical results, the new algorithm is simple, efficient and empirically superb. The approach is based on UCB, but with a carefully chosen confidence parameter that optimally balances the risk of failing confidence intervals against the cost of excessive optimism.
Stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits with Limited Control Variates
Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research（新加坡-麻省理工联合研究与技术中心）；Technology Centre（技术中心）；Department of IEOR Indian Institute of Technology Bombay（工业工程与运营研究系印度理工学院班加罗尔）；Department of DSAI Indian Institute of Technology Madras（数据科学与人工智能系印度理工学院马德拉斯）
University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学）；Otto von Güricke Universität Magdeburg（奥托·冯·格里克马格德堡大学）
We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem in the case when the arm samples are dependent over time and generated from so-called weak $\cC$-mixing processes. We establish a $\cC-$Mix Improved UCB agorithm and provide both problem-dependent and independent regret analysis in two different scenarios. In the first, so-called fast-mixing scenario, we show that pseudo-regret enjoys the same upper bound (up to a factor) as for i.i.d. observations; whereas in the second, slow mixing scenario, we discover a surprising effect, that the regret upper bound is similar to the independent case, with…
We revisit the proof by Qin et al. (2014) of bounded regret of the C$^2$UCB contextual combinatorial bandit. We demonstrate an error in the proof of volumetric expansion of the moment matrix, used in upper bounding a function of context vector norms. We prove a relaxed inequality that yields the originally-stated regret bound.
We propose Streaming Bandits, a Restless Multi Armed Bandit (RMAB) framework in which heterogeneous arms may arrive and leave the system after staying on for a finite lifetime. Streaming Bandits naturally capture the health intervention planning problem, where health workers must manage the health outcomes of a patient cohort while new patients join and existing patients leave the cohort each day. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We derive conditions under which our problem satisfies indexability, a precondition that guarantees the existence and asymptotic optimality of the Whittle Index …
We consider a variant of the multi-armed bandit model, which we call multi-armed bandit problem with known trend, where the gambler knows the shape of the reward function of each arm but not its distribution. This new problem is motivated by different online problems like active learning, music and interface recommendation applications, where when an arm is sampled by the model the received reward change according to a known trend. By adapting the standard multi-armed bandit algorithm UCB1 to take advantage of this setting, we propose the new algorithm named A-UCB that assumes a stochastic mod…
We study the nonstationary stochastic Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem in which the distribution of rewards associated with each arm are assumed to be time-varying and the total variation in the expected rewards is subject to a variation budget. The regret of a policy is defined by the difference in the expected cumulative rewards obtained using the policy and using an oracle that selects the arm with the maximum mean reward at each time. We characterize the performance of the proposed policies in terms of the worst-case regret, which is the supremum of the regret over the set of reward distri…
Restless bandits are an important class of problems with applications in recommender systems, active learning, revenue management and other areas. We consider infinite-horizon discounted restless bandits with many arms where a fixed proportion of arms may be pulled in each period and where arms share a finite state space. Although an average-case-optimal policy can be computed via stochastic dynamic programming, the computation required grows exponentially with the number of arms $N$. Thus, it is important to find scalable policies that can be computed efficiently for large $N$ and that are ne…
We obtain the conditions for the emergence of the swarm intelligence effect in an interactive game of restless multi-armed bandit (rMAB). A player competes with multiple agents. Each bandit has a payoff that changes with a probability $p_{c}$ per round. The agents and player choose one of three options: (1) Exploit (a good bandit), (2) Innovate (asocial learning for a good bandit among $n_{I}$ randomly chosen bandits), and (3) Observe (social learning for a good bandit). Each agent has two parameters $(c,p_{obs})$ to specify the decision: (i) $c$, the threshold value for Exploit, and (ii) $p_{…
Ben-Gurion University of the Negev（内盖夫本-古里安大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
We consider an extension to the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown arm dynamics, where an unknown exogenous global Markov process governs the rewards distribution of each arm. Under each global state, the rewards process of each arm evolves according to an unknown Markovian rule, which is non-identical among different arms. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of $N$ arms to play, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The arms are restless, that is, their local state evolves regardless of the player's actions. Motivated by recent studies on …
The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；AT&T Labs Research（AT&T实验室研究部）
In this work, we address the open problem of finding low-complexity near-optimal multi-armed bandit algorithms for sequential decision making problems. Existing bandit algorithms are either sub-optimal and computationally simple (e.g., UCB1) or optimal and computationally complex (e.g., kl-UCB). We propose a boosting approach to Upper Confidence Bound based algorithms for stochastic bandits, that we call UCBoost. Specifically, we propose two types of UCBoost algorithms. We show that UCBoost($D$) enjoys $O(1)$ complexity for each arm per round as well as regret guarantee that is $1/e$-close to …
Ben-Gurion University of the Negev（内盖夫本-古里安大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
We consider an extension to the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown arm dynamics, where an unknown exogenous global Markov process governs the rewards distribution of each arm. Under each global state, the rewards process of each arm evolves according to an unknown Markovian rule, which is non-identical among different arms. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of N arms to play, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The arms are restless, that is, their local state evolves regardless of the player's actions. Motivated by recent studies on re…
In many public health settings, it is important for patients to adhere to health programs, such as taking medications and periodic health checks. Unfortunately, beneficiaries may gradually disengage from such programs, which is detrimental to their health. A concrete example of gradual disengagement has been observed by an organization that carries out a free automated call-based program for spreading preventive care information among pregnant women. Many women stop picking up calls after being enrolled for a few months. To avoid such disengagements, it is important to provide timely intervent…
A sensing policy for the restless multi-armed bandit problem with stationary but unknown reward distributions is proposed. The work is presented in the context of cognitive radios in which the bandit problem arises when deciding which parts of the spectrum to sense and exploit. It is shown that the proposed policy attains asymptotically logarithmic weak regret rate when the rewards are bounded independent and identically distributed or finite state Markovian. Simulation results verifying uniformly logarithmic weak regret are also presented. The proposed policy is a centrally coordinated index …
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；MIT（麻省理工学院）
Recent works on neural contextual bandits have achieved compelling performances due to their ability to leverage the strong representation power of neural networks (NNs) for reward prediction. Many applications of contextual bandits involve multiple agents who collaborate without sharing raw observations, thus giving rise to the setting of federated contextual bandits. Existing works on federated contextual bandits rely on linear or kernelized bandits, which may fall short when modeling complex real-world reward functions. So, this paper introduces the federated neural-upper confidence bound (…
