Selective Intervention Planning using Restless Multi-Armed Bandits to Improve Maternal and Child Health Outcomes
Robert Bosch Centre for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence（罗伯特·博世数据科学与人工智能中心）；IIT Madras（印度理工学院马德拉斯分校）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）；ARMMAN
India has a maternal mortality ratio of 113 and child mortality ratio of 2830 per 100,000 live births. Lack of access to preventive care information is a major contributing factor for these deaths, especially in low resource households. We partner with ARMMAN, a non-profit based in India employing a call-based information program to disseminate health-related information to pregnant women and women with recent child deliveries. We analyze call records of over 300,000 women registered in the program created by ARMMAN and try to identify women who might not engage with these call programs that are proven to result in positive health outcomes. We built machine learning based models to predict the long term engagement pattern from call logs and beneficiaries' demographic information, and discuss the applicability of this method in the real world through a pilot validation. Through a pilot service quality improvement study, we show that using our model's predictions to make interventions boosts engagement metrics by 61.37%. We then formulate the intervention planning problem as restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs), and present preliminary results using this approach.
The widespread availability of cell phones has enabled non-profits to deliver critical health information to their beneficiaries in a timely manner. This paper describes our work to assist non-profits that employ automated messaging programs to deliver timely preventive care information to beneficiaries (new and expecting mothers) during pregnancy and after delivery. Unfortunately, a key challenge in such information delivery programs is that a significant fraction of beneficiaries drop out of the program. Yet, non-profits often have limited health-worker resources (time) to place crucial serv…
IRL for Restless Multi-Armed Bandits with Applications in Maternal and Child Health
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Google Deepmind（谷歌DeepMind）；University of Georgia（佐治亚大学）
Restless Multi-Armed Bandits (RMAB) is an apt model to represent decision-making problems in public health interventions (e.g., tuberculosis, maternal, and child care), anti-poaching planning, sensor monitoring, personalized recommendations and many more. Existing research in RMAB has contributed mechanisms and theoretical results to a wide variety of settings, where the focus is on maximizing expected value. In this paper, we are interested in ensuring that RMAB decision making is also fair to different arms while maximizing expected value. In the context of public health settings, this would…
In many public health settings, it is important for patients to adhere to health programs, such as taking medications and periodic health checks. Unfortunately, beneficiaries may gradually disengage from such programs, which is detrimental to their health. A concrete example of gradual disengagement has been observed by an organization that carries out a free automated call-based program for spreading preventive care information among pregnant women. Many women stop picking up calls after being enrolled for a few months. To avoid such disengagements, it is important to provide timely intervent…
We propose Streaming Bandits, a Restless Multi Armed Bandit (RMAB) framework in which heterogeneous arms may arrive and leave the system after staying on for a finite lifetime. Streaming Bandits naturally capture the health intervention planning problem, where health workers must manage the health outcomes of a patient cohort while new patients join and existing patients leave the cohort each day. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We derive conditions under which our problem satisfies indexability, a precondition that guarantees the existence and asymptotic optimality of the Whittle Index …
Predicting Anemia Among Under-Five Children in Nepal Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning
University of Alabama at Birmingham, Department of Applied Mathematics（阿拉巴马大学伯明翰分校应用数学系）；Eastern New Mexico University, Department of Mathematical Science（新墨西哥州东部大学数学科学系）；Apara Innovations（Apara创新公司）
Robert Bosch Centre for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence（罗伯特·博世数据科学与人工智能中心）；Google Research, India（谷歌研究院（印度））；ARMMAN；Indian Institute of Technology, Madras（印度理工学院马德拉斯分校）
India accounts for 11% of maternal deaths globally where a woman dies in childbirth every fifteen minutes. Lack of access to preventive care information is a significant problem contributing to high maternal morbidity and mortality numbers, especially in low-income households. We work with ARMMAN, a non-profit based in India, to further the use of call-based information programs by early-on identifying women who might not engage on these programs that are proven to affect health parameters positively.We analyzed anonymized call-records of over 300,000 women registered in an awareness program c…
Institute of Information Technology, University of Dhaka（达卡大学信息技术学院）
Analysis of child mortality is crucial as it pertains to the policy and programs of a country. The early assessment of patterns and trends in causes of child mortality help decision-makers assess needs, prioritize interventions, and monitor progress. Post-birth factors of the child, such as real-time clinical data, health data of the child, etc. are frequently used in child mortality studies. However, in the early assessment of child mortality, pre-birth factors would be more practical and beneficial than the post-birth factors. This study aims at incorporating pre-birth factors, such as birth…
Maternal and child mortality is a public health problem that disproportionately affects low- and middle-income countries. Every day, 800 women and 6,700 newborns die from complications related to pregnancy or childbirth. And for every maternal death, about 20 women suffer serious birth injuries. However, nearly all of these deaths and negative health outcomes are preventable. Midwives are key to revert this situation, and thus it is essential to strengthen their capacities and the quality of their education. This is the aim of the Safe Delivery App, a digital job aid and learning tool to enhan…
