We propose a tree-based algorithm for classification and regression problems in the context of functional data analysis, which allows to leverage representation learning and multiple splitting rules at the node level, reducing generalization error while retaining the interpretability of a tree. This is achieved by learning a weighted functional $L^{2}$ space by means of constrained convex optimization, which is then used to extract multiple weighted integral features from the input functions, in order to determine the binary split for each internal node of the tree. The approach is designed to manage multiple functional inputs and/or outputs, by defining suitable splitting rules and loss functions that can depend on the specific problem and can also be combined with scalar and categorical data, as the tree is grown with the original greedy CART algorithm. We focus on the case of scalar-valued functional inputs defined on unidimensional domains and illustrate the effectiveness of our method in both classification and regression tasks, through a simulation study and four real world applications.
Univ. Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学）；University Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Grenoble INP（格勒诺布尔国立理工学院）；University of Lorraine（洛林大学）；Institut Elie Cartan（埃利·嘉当研究所）；Ecole des Mines d’Alès（阿莱斯矿业学院）；TOTAL S.A.（道达尔公司）
Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty in the output variable, using for example a quantile loss in Random Forests (Meinshausen, 2006). To the best of our knowledge, no extension has been provided yet for dealing with uncertainties in the input variables, even though such uncertainties are common in practical situations. We propose here such an extension by showing how standard regression trees …
Zalando Research Lab（Zalando研究实验室）；University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学）
We present a detailed analysis of the class of regression decision tree algorithms which employ a regulized piecewise-linear node-splitting criterion and have regularized linear models at the leaves. From a theoretic standpoint, based on Rademacher complexity framework, we present new high-probability upper bounds for the generalization error for the proposed classes of regularized regression decision tree algorithms, including LASSO-type, and $\ell_{2}$ regularization for linear models at the leaves. Theoretical result are further extended by considering a general type of variable selection p…
Tree based ensembles such as Breiman's random forest (RF) and Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT) can be interpreted as implicit kernel generators, where the ensuing proximity matrix represents the data-driven tree ensemble kernel. Kernel perspective on the RF has been used to develop a principled framework for theoretical investigation of its statistical properties. Recently, it has been shown that the kernel interpretation is germane to other tree-based ensembles e.g. GBTs. However, practical utility of the links between kernels and the tree ensembles has not been widely explored and systematically…
Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University（清华大学深圳国际研究生院）；PCL Research Center of Networks and Communications, Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室网络通信PCL研究中心）；Meituan-Dianping（美团点评）
Regression tree (RT) has been widely used in machine learning and data mining community. Given a target data for prediction, a regression tree is first constructed based on a training dataset before making prediction for each leaf node. In practice, the performance of RT relies heavily on the local mean of samples from an individual node during the tree construction/prediction stage, while neglecting the global information from different nodes, which also plays an important role. To address this issue, we propose a novel regression tree, named James-Stein Regression Tree (JSRT) by considering …
Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts（马其顿科学艺术院）；Temple University（天普大学）
Decision trees and logistic regression are one of the most popular and well-known machine learning algorithms, frequently used to solve a variety of real-world problems. Stability of learning algorithms is a powerful tool to analyze their performance and sensitivity and subsequently allow researchers to draw reliable conclusions. The stability of these two algorithms has remained obscure. To that end, in this paper, we derive two stability notions for decision trees and logistic regression: hypothesis and pointwise hypothesis stability. Additionally, we derive these notions for L2-regularized …
Université d’Abomey-Calavi（阿波美卡拉维大学）；Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne（巴黎第一大学（先贤祠-索邦大学））
This paper deals with prediction of anopheles number, the main vector of malaria risk, using environmental and climate variables. The variables selection is based on an automatic machine learning method using regression trees, and random forests combined with stratified two levels cross validation. The minimum threshold of variables importance is accessed using the quadratic distance of variables importance while the optimal subset of selected variables is used to perform predictions. Finally the results revealed to be qualitatively better, at the selection, the prediction , and the CPU time p…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)（里约热内卢天主教大学）；University of California, Irvine（加州大学尔湾分校）
In this paper, we introduce a new machine learning (ML) model for nonlinear regression called the Boosted Smooth Transition Regression Trees (BooST), which is a combination of boosting algorithms with smooth transition regression trees. The main advantage of the BooST model is the estimation of the derivatives (partial effects) of very general nonlinear models. Therefore, the model can provide more interpretation about the mapping between the covariates and the dependent variable than other tree-based models, such as Random Forests. We present several examples with both simulated and real data…
We study online prediction of bounded stationary ergodic processes. To do so, we consider the setting of prediction of individual sequences and build a deterministic regression tree that performs asymptotically as well as the best L-Lipschitz constant predictors. Then, we show why the obtained regret bound entails the asymptotical optimality with respect to the class of bounded stationary ergodic processes.
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）
Sparse regression models are increasingly prevalent due to their ease of interpretability and superior out-of-sample performance. However, the exact model of sparse regression with an $\ell_0$ constraint restricting the support of the estimators is a challenging (\NP-hard) non-convex optimization problem. In this paper, we derive new strong convex relaxations for sparse regression. These relaxations are based on the ideal (convex-hull) formulations for rank-one quadratic terms with indicator variables. The new relaxations can be formulated as semidefinite optimization problems in an extended s…
Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts（卢塞恩应用科学与艺术大学）
We introduce a novel boosting algorithm called `KTBoost' which combines kernel boosting and tree boosting. In each boosting iteration, the algorithm adds either a regression tree or reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression function to the ensemble of base learners. Intuitively, the idea is that discontinuous trees and continuous RKHS regression functions complement each other, and that this combination allows for better learning of functions that have parts with varying degrees of regularity such as discontinuities and smooth parts. We empirically show that KTBoost significantly outp…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Northampton University（北安普顿大学）
Fairness, through its many forms and definitions, has become an important issue facing the machine learning community. In this work, we consider how to incorporate group fairness constraints in kernel regression methods, applicable to Gaussian processes, support vector machines, neural network regression and decision tree regression. Further, we focus on examining the effect of incorporating these constraints in decision tree regression, with direct applications to random forests and boosted trees amongst other widespread popular inference techniques. We show that the order of complexity of me…
We characterize and study variable importance (VIMP) and pairwise variable associations in binary regression trees. A key component involves the node mean squared error for a quantity we refer to as a maximal subtree. The theory naturally extends from single trees to ensembles of trees and applies to methods like random forests. This is useful because while importance values from random forests are used to screen variables, for example they are used to filter high throughput genomic data in Bioinformatics, very little theory exists about their properties.
We study the convergence of the predictive surface of regression trees and forests. To support our analysis we introduce a notion of adaptive concentration for regression trees. This approach breaks tree training into a model selection phase in which we pick the tree splits, followed by a model fitting phase where we find the best regression model consistent with these splits. We then show that the fitted regression tree concentrates around the optimal predictor with the same splits: as d and n get large, the discrepancy is with high probability bounded on the order of sqrt(log(d) log(n)/k) un…
Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of hyperparameters. They are built via aggregation of multiple regression trees during training and are usually calculated recursively using hard splitting rules. Recently regression forests have been incorporated into the framework of distributional regression, a nowadays popular regression approach aiming at estimating complete conditional distributions rather than re…
We study the problem of estimating high-dimensional regression models regularized by a structured sparsity-inducing penalty that encodes prior structural information on either the input or output variables. We consider two widely adopted types of penalties of this kind as motivating examples: (1) the general overlapping-group-lasso penalty, generalized from the group-lasso penalty; and (2) the graph-guided-fused-lasso penalty, generalized from the fused-lasso penalty. For both types of penalties, due to their nonseparability and nonsmoothness, developing an efficient optimization method remain…
This paper presents a new approach for trees-based regression, such as simple regression tree, random forest and gradient boosting, in settings involving correlated data. We show the problems that arise when implementing standard trees-based regression models, which ignore the correlation structure. Our new approach explicitly takes the correlation structure into account in the splitting criterion, stopping rules and fitted values in the leaves, which induces some major modifications of standard methodology. The superiority of our new approach over trees-based models that do not account for th…
Due to their accuracies, methods based on ensembles of regression trees are a popular approach for making predictions. Some common examples include Bayesian additive regression trees, boosting and random forests. This paper focuses on honest random forests, which add honesty to the original form of random forests and are proved to have better statistical properties. The main contribution is a new method that quantifies the uncertainties of the estimates and predictions produced by honest random forests. The proposed method is based on the generalized fiducial methodology, and provides a fiduci…
Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad（印度理工学院海得拉巴分校）；RIKEN Center for AI Project（理化学研究所人工智能项目中心）
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are multi-layer, flexible extensions of Gaussian processes but their training remains challenging. Sparse approximations simplify the training but often require optimization over a large number of inducing inputs and their locations across layers. In this paper, we simplify the training by setting the locations to a fixed subset of data and sampling the inducing inputs from a variational distribution. This reduces the trainable parameters and computation cost without significant performance degradations, as demonstrated by our empirical results on regression prob…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs to larger datasets, several sparse approximations based on so-called inducing points have been proposed in the literature. In this work we investigate the connection between a general class of sparse inducing point GP regression methods and Bayesian recursive estimation which enables Kalman Filter like updating for online learning. The majority of previous …
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
In this paper, the estimation problem for sparse reduced rank regression (SRRR) model is considered. The SRRR model is widely used for dimension reduction and variable selection with applications in signal processing, econometrics, etc. The problem is formulated to minimize the least squares loss with a sparsity-inducing penalty considering an orthogonality constraint. Convex sparsity-inducing functions have been used for SRRR in literature. In this work, a nonconvex function is proposed for better sparsity inducing. An efficient algorithm is developed based on the alternating minimization (or…
Classical scalar-response regression methods treat covariates as a vector and estimate a corresponding vector of regression coefficients. In medical applications, however, regressors are often in a form of multi-dimensional arrays. For example, one may be interested in using MRI imaging to identify which brain regions are associated with a health outcome. Vectorizing the two-dimensional image arrays is an unsatisfactory approach since it destroys the inherent spatial structure of the images and can be computationally challenging. We present an alternative approach - regularized matrix regressi…
Regression-via-Classification (RvC) is the process of converting a regression problem to a classification one. Current approaches for RvC use ad-hoc discretization strategies and are suboptimal. We propose a neural regression tree model for RvC. In this model, we employ a joint optimization framework where we learn optimal discretization thresholds while simultaneously optimizing the features for each node in the tree. We empirically show the validity of our model by testing it on two challenging regression tasks where we establish the state of the art.
Scaling regression to large datasets is a common problem in many application areas. We propose a two step approach to scaling regression to large datasets. Using a regression tree (CART) to segment the large dataset constitutes the first step of this approach. The second step of this approach is to develop a suitable regression model for each segment. Since segment sizes are not very large, we have the ability to apply sophisticated regression techniques if required. A nice feature of this two step approach is that it can yield models that have good explanatory power as well as good predictive…
We present a new package in R implementing Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The package introduces many new features for data analysis using BART such as variable selection, interaction detection, model diagnostic plots, incorporation of missing data and the ability to save trees for future prediction. It is significantly faster than the current R implementation, parallelized, and capable of handling both large sample sizes and high-dimensional data.
In this paper, we investigate adaptive nonlinear regression and introduce tree based piecewise linear regression algorithms that are highly efficient and provide significantly improved performance with guaranteed upper bounds in an individual sequence manner. We use a tree notion in order to partition the space of regressors in a nested structure. The introduced algorithms adapt not only their regression functions but also the complete tree structure while achieving the performance of the "best" linear mixture of a doubly exponential number of partitions, with a computational complexity only p…
Hamilton Institute（汉密尔顿研究所）；Insight Centre for Data Analytics（洞察数据分析中心）；Maynooth University（梅努斯大学）
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a tree-based machine learning method that has been successfully applied to regression and classification problems. BART assumes regularisation priors on a set of trees that work as weak learners and is very flexible for predicting in the presence of non-linearity and high-order interactions. In this paper, we introduce an extension of BART, called Model Trees BART (MOTR-BART), that considers piecewise linear functions at node levels instead of piecewise constants. In MOTR-BART, rather than having a unique value at node level for the prediction, a li…
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of California, Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）；UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
This paper presents an efficient variational inference framework for deriving a family of structured gaussian process regression network (SGPRN) models. The key idea is to incorporate auxiliary inducing variables in latent functions and jointly treats both the distributions of the inducing variables and hyper-parameters as variational parameters. Then we propose structured variable distributions and marginalize latent variables, which enables the decomposability of a tractable variational lower bound and leads to stochastic optimization. Our inference approach is able to model data in which ou…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of Bristol（布里斯托大学）
We consider the optimal approximate posterior over the top-layer weights in a Bayesian neural network for regression, and show that it exhibits strong dependencies on the lower-layer weights. We adapt this result to develop a correlated approximate posterior over the weights at all layers in a Bayesian neural network. We extend this approach to deep Gaussian processes, unifying inference in the two model classes. Our approximate posterior uses learned "global" inducing points, which are defined only at the input layer and propagated through the network to obtain inducing inputs at subsequent l…
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院）
We present a method for incorporating missing data in non-parametric statistical learning without the need for imputation. We focus on a tree-based method, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), enhanced with "Missingness Incorporated in Attributes," an approach recently proposed incorporating missingness into decision trees (Twala, 2008). This procedure takes advantage of the partitioning mechanisms found in tree-based models. Simulations on generated models and real data indicate that our proposed method can forecast well on complicated missing-at-random and not-missing-at-random models …
Lomonosov Moscow State University（莫斯科国立大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；National Research University Higher School of Economics（国立研究型高等经济大学）；Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS（俄罗斯科学院数值数学研究所）
We propose a method (TT-GP) for approximate inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. We build on previous scalable GP research including stochastic variational inference based on inducing inputs, kernel interpolation, and structure exploiting algebra. The key idea of our method is to use Tensor Train decomposition for variational parameters, which allows us to train GPs with billions of inducing inputs and achieve state-of-the-art results on several benchmarks. Further, our approach allows for training kernels based on deep neural networks without any modifications to the underlying GP model…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Medical College of Wisconsin（威斯康星医学院）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a fully Bayesian approach to modeling with ensembles of trees. BART can uncover complex regression functions with high dimensional regressors in a fairly automatic way and provide Bayesian quantification of the uncertainty through the posterior. However, BART assumes IID normal errors. This strong parametric assumption can lead to misleading inference and uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we use the classic Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) mechanism to nonparametrically model the error distribution. A key strength of BART is that default pri…
High-Dimensional Gaussian Process Regression with Soft Kernel Interpolation
Department of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology（计算与数学科学部，加州理工学院）；Department of Computer Science, San Francisco State University（计算机科学部，旧金山州立大学）；Base26, CA, USA
In this work, we demonstrate the advantage of the pGMM (``powered generalized min-max'') kernel in the context of (ridge) regression. In recent prior studies, the pGMM kernel has been extensively evaluated for classification tasks, for logistic regression, support vector machines, as well as deep neural networks. In this paper, we provide an experimental study on ridge regression, to compare the pGMM kernel regression with the ordinary ridge linear regression as well as the RBF kernel ridge regression. Perhaps surprisingly, even without a tuning parameter (i.e., $p=1$ for the power parameter o…
In many applications of supervised learning, multiple classification or regression outputs have to be predicted jointly. We consider several extensions of gradient boosting to address such problems. We first propose a straightforward adaptation of gradient boosting exploiting multiple output regression trees as base learners. We then argue that this method is only expected to be optimal when the outputs are fully correlated, as it forces the partitioning induced by the tree base learners to be shared by all outputs. We then propose a novel extension of gradient tree boosting to specifically ad…
School of Electrical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院电气工程学院）
We consider the classical sparse regression problem of recovering a sparse signal $x_0$ given a measurement vector $y = Φx_0+w$. We propose a tree search algorithm driven by the deep neural network for sparse regression (TSN). TSN improves the signal reconstruction performance of the deep neural network designed for sparse regression by performing a tree search with pruning. It is observed in both noiseless and noisy cases, TSN recovers synthetic and real signals with lower complexity than a conventional tree search and is superior to existing algorithms by a large margin for various types of …
University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) (Chipman et. al., 2010) is a powerful predictive model that often outperforms alternative models at out-of-sample prediction. BART is especially well-suited to settings with unstructured predictor variables and substantial sources of unmeasured variation as is typical in the social, behavioral and health sciences. This paper develops a modified version of BART that is amenable to fast posterior estimation. We present a stochastic hill climbing algorithm that matches the remarkable predictive accuracy of previous BART implementations, but is many times …
University of São Paulo（圣保罗大学）；State University of Londrina（隆德里纳州立大学）
One of the current challenges in machine learning is how to deal with data coming at increasing rates in data streams. New predictive learning strategies are needed to cope with the high throughput data and concept drift. One of the data stream mining tasks where new learning strategies are needed is multi-target regression, due to its applicability in a high number of real world problems. While reliable and effective learning strategies have been proposed for batch multi-target regression, few have been proposed for multi-target online learning in data streams. Besides, most of the existing s…
Multiple Additive Regression Trees (MART), an ensemble model of boosted regression trees, is known to deliver high prediction accuracy for diverse tasks, and it is widely used in practice. However, it suffers an issue which we call over-specialization, wherein trees added at later iterations tend to impact the prediction of only a few instances, and make negligible contribution towards the remaining instances. This negatively affects the performance of the model on unseen data, and also makes the model over-sensitive to the contributions of the few, initially added tress. We show that the comm…
In this report we present two new ways of enforcing monotone constraints in regression and classification trees. One yields better results than the current LightGBM, and has a similar computation time. The other one yields even better results, but is much slower than the current LightGBM. We also propose a heuristic that takes into account that greedily splitting a tree by choosing a monotone split with respect to its immediate gain is far from optimal. Then, we compare the results with the current implementation of the constraints in the LightGBM library, using the well known Adult public dat…
Ensemble of regression trees have become popular statistical tools for the estimation of conditional mean given a set of predictors. However, quantile regression trees and their ensembles have not yet garnered much attention despite the increasing popularity of the linear quantile regression model. This work proposes a Bayesian quantile additive regression trees model that shows very good predictive performance illustrated using simulation studies and real data applications. Further extension to tackle binary classification problems is also considered.
We present Blitzkriging, a new approach to fast inference for Gaussian processes, applicable to regression, optimisation and classification. State-of-the-art (stochastic) inference for Gaussian processes on very large datasets scales cubically in the number of 'inducing inputs', variables introduced to factorise the model. Blitzkriging shares state-of-the-art scaling with data, but reduces the scaling in the number of inducing points to approximately linear. Further, in contrast to other methods, Blitzkriging: does not force the data to conform to any particular structure (including grid-like)…
City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）
This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from Bayesian modeling with computationally efficient techniques from recursive partitioning approaches, the new method attains state-of-the-art performance: in many settings it is both faster and more accurate than the widely-used XGBoost algorithm. Via careful simulation studies, we demonstrate that our new approach provides accurate point-wise estimates of the m…
Department of Statistics, Rice University（里士大学统计系）；Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（伯克利国家实验室计算研究部）；Department of Statistics, University of California Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校统计系）；Department of Statistics, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学统计系）
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
Additive regression trees are flexible non-parametric models and popular off-the-shelf tools for real-world non-linear regression. In application domains, such as bioinformatics, where there is also demand for probabilistic predictions with measures of uncertainty, the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model, introduced by Chipman et al. (2010), is increasingly popular. As data sets have grown in size, however, the standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithms used to perform inference in BART are proving inadequate. In particular, these Markov chains make local changes to the trees and suff…
Bayesian additive regression trees have seen increased interest in recent years due to their ability to combine machine learning techniques with principled uncertainty quantification. The Bayesian backfitting algorithm used to fit BART models, however, limits their application to a small class of models for which conditional conjugacy exists. In this article, we greatly expand the domain of applicability of BART to arbitrary \emph{generalized BART} models by introducing a very simple, tuning-parameter-free, reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Our algorithm requires only that th…
This article proposes Multinomial Probit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (MPBART) as a multinomial probit extension of BART - Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (Chipman et al (2010)). MPBART is flexible to allow inclusion of predictors that describe the observed units as well as the available choice alternatives. Through two simulation studies and four real data examples, we show that MPBART exhibits very good predictive performance in comparison to other discrete choice and multiclass classification methods. To implement MPBART, we have developed an R package mpbart available freely from …
